Taylor Fritz vs. Rafael Nadal Wimbledon Quarterfinals Prediction and Pick (Value on Total)

Reed Wallach
Jul 4, 2022; London, United Kingdom; Rafael Nadal (ESP) returns a shot during his match against
Jul 4, 2022; London, United Kingdom; Rafael Nadal (ESP) returns a shot during his match against / Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

Rafael Nadal's pursuit of three consecutive majors is within reach.

The 2022 Australian and French Open champion Nadal is into the quarterfinals at Wimbledon with a matchup against big serving American Taylor Fritz on Wednesday. Fritz has looked strong on clay and is being respected by oddsmakers, but can he make any inroads on Nadal's pursuit of the calendar Grand Slam?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook

Taylor Fritz vs. Rafael Nadal Odds, Spread, Total


  • Fritz: +4 (-120)
  • Nadal: -4 (+100)


  • Fritz: +215
  • Nadal: -275

Total: 39.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Taylor Fritz vs. Rafael Nadal Prediction and Pick

Fritz hasn't dropped a set at the All England Club this fortnight, but he also hasn't faced a player inside the ATP Top 50, nor with any sort of grass prowess. Not to mention, this is Fritz's first time in a Grand Slam quarterfinal, this is a significant jump in class for the American.

This is not to say Fritz can't be a tough out for Nadal, considering he can serve his way through a set on the slick grass of Wimbledon. While I'm not going to call for the outright upset, Fritz is live to take a set and drag this match into tiebreakers with his massive serve.

Nadal has dropped two sets through the tournament, and has shown little issue converting his service games. Outside of his first round match, he has won more than 60% of his second serve points. That's massive against Fritz, who will minimize the amount of break chances Nadal has throughout the match. If Nadal is winning off his serve, I trust him to win the high leverage points and get to the semis.

My favorite look is to the over games with Nadal pulling away in four sets.

LEAN: OVER 39.5 (-105)

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