MLB Picks

Top MLB Picks and Predictions Today (Trust Joe Musgrove, Padres and Two Totals to Bet)

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove.
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove. / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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We have several playoff teams in action in Major League Baseball on Thursday, and New York Yankees star Aaron Judge is chasing Roger Maris' record against the rival Boston Red Sox.

That calls for some MLB bets, wouldn't you say?

Here are some of the top picks from the BetSided team for Thursday, Sept. 22:

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Odds, Prediction and Pick

Both of these starters have been terrific, so instead of backing a side in this one, I’m going to play a first five innings total. 

Zac Gallen had his scoreless innings streak snapped earlier this month, but he still has posted 12 consecutive starts with two or fewer runs allowed, including seven starts with no runs allowed. 

As for Julio Urias, he has been nearly as dominant, posting 11 straight starts with two or fewer runs allowed. 

The Diamondbacks are also awful against lefties this season, ranking 26th in baseball in OPS. Given how well these two starters have pitched for multiple months, 3.5 runs should be tough for these offenses to clear early

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Odds, Prediction and Pick

Aaron Judge is having an unreal season and has already hit 60 home runs this year and five of those 60 have come against Boston.

He is currently in line to win the Triple Crown in the American league with a .316 average, 128 RBI, and the aforementioned 60 bombs. His OPS is 1.123 and he ranks in the 99th or 100th percentile in hard hit rate, average exit velocity, max exit velocity, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging, and barrel rate. He is 98th percentile in walk rate.

This is the most amazing offensive season that I have ever been alive for, and he still has 14 games left to hit two more home runs and break the Yankee record. 

There is absolutely no chance that he doesn’t do that in these four games against the Red Sox. If I know anything about Yankees vs. Red Sox, then I know that a historic event like that is bound to happen in this series. Boston has owned New York since 2008, but this would potentially symbolize a turn of the tides back in the Yanks direction. 

Michael Wacha doesn't seem like the pitcher that he would get No. 61 off of with his 2.61 ERA and 11-1 record, but Wacha’s FIP is almost a run higher than his ERA and his expected ERA is over four. His expected slugging is in the 27th percentile of the league and could potentially be primed for a major step back in a hitter friendly park. 

Tonight, Judge gets No. 61 and the Yankees roll, but the most value is on the over with the New York offense scoring 14, nine and 12 in their last three games. 

Pick: Over 8 (-110) -- Josh Yourish


Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE


St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Odds, Prediction and Pick

The Padres are in a great spot to back today. San Diego is 35-25 straight up as a home favorite this season. Compare that to the Cardinals being 12-21 as a road underdog, and you have a recipe for another San Diego win.

Joe Musgrove is on the mound today, and he’s coming off one of his best starts of the season. He went six scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks, recording a win in the process. With the Cardinals struggling offensively – bottom third in OPS and and hits over the last two weeks – Musgrove is set up for another great performance. 

The Cardinals will send Jack Flaherty out on the mound, and he needs to tighten up if the Cardinals want to get this one. He’s allowed eight runs in his last two starts, which makes me lean towards the Padres here

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