Mike Woodson is on his way out and the general state of the Indiana Hoosiers fan base could perhaps most kindly be described as "unrest". And yet, even though it's been a season well short of expectations in Bloomington, college basketball Bracketology experts coming into this weekend and a rivalry matchup at Assembly Hall against Purdue still had IU in striking distance for a spot in March Madness.
Entering the weekend, Joe Lunardi of ESPN had the Hoosiers missing the NCAA Tournament as the second team in the "Next Four Out" designation, effectively calling Woodson's team the sixth team left out of the field of 68 according to his projections. Jerry Palm of CBS Sports, on the other hand, was a bit higher on the Hoosiers, having them as one of the "First Four Out".
Sunday certainly changed that calculus a bit, however.
While it was a home game against a rival, Indiana played perhaps its best basketball of the season at home with an emphatic 73-58 win over the Purdue Boilermakers, an upset victory over the 13th-ranked team in the country. What was perhaps most impressive was IU basketball overcoming a 12-point halftime deficit to blow out Matt Painter's team in the second half, a 48-21 tally in the final 20 minutes of action, to be exact.
Indiana Bracketology update after upsetting rival Purdue
With that win, the projection for Indiana changes quite drastically. Despite coming into this game with only a 15-11 overall record, Bracketology for the Hoosiers entering the Purdue matchup still favored Woodson's team to some degree because of how the resumé was built.
All 11 of the Hoosiers' losses this season have come against Quad 1 teeams while they've been perfect outside of the first Quadrant. However, what held Indiana back largely from getting on the right side of the bubble was the fact that they had just one win against a team likely to make the NCAA Tournament field — and that was against Michigan State just last week. They hadn't pulled out a victory against the higher-level teams on the schedule with just three Quad 1 wins overall as well.
The Purdue win changes that. Sure, a 4-11 record in Quad 1 is far from the top of the field of 68's resumés and what those look like. At the same time, though, when you're on the bubble in the way Indiana is, those victories matter more than ever. And this could be one that truly pushes the Hoosiers onto the right side of the bubble.
Even if doesn't get them there with this victory alone, though, IU basketball is now in a much better position. The Hoosiers finish the month of February at home against Penn State before going on the road to Washington and Oregon in early March and then finishing the regular season at home against Ohio State, a fellow bubble team.
Now playing a higher-quality brand of basketball, if Indiana can finish strong and hit the 20-win mark in the regular season while also avoiding a premature exit in the Big Ten Tournament, Sunday's upset win over Purdue could be exactly what Woodson needs to push his Hoosiers into the NCAA Tournament.