The New York Mets are determined to outbid any other team in their pursuit of Juan Soto. Prognosticators seem to think they'll pull it off too.
While Soto can still choose his next team based on factors beyond money, the Mets are now the overwhelming favorite to win the sweepstakes, according to Polymarket.
Around midday on Dec. 6, something drastic changed in the battle between the Mets and New York Yankees. What had been a neck-and-neck race turned into a rout for Steve Cohen and company.
Something has happened in the Juan Soto Sweepstakes. Poly Market, who nailed the presidential election results, is projecting Juan Soto will be a Met…. 👀 pic.twitter.com/pf4ACbwTKq
— Erich Richter (@erichterrr) December 6, 2024
Does Polymarket know something we don't? Who knows. Did Clay Holmes' signing with the Mets change the equation? Are the Yankees finally balking at the asking price?
The election betting platform nailed the 2024 presidential election. Now they're trying to master MLB free agency by predicting the seemingly unpredictable: Which way will the wind bowl Juan Soto?
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Predicting Juan Soto's free agency decision is no easy task
We don't know exactly what Soto values as a deciding factor in his free agency decision. All we know for sure is that his agent is Scott Boras and it's very rare that a Scott Boras client settles for less than top dollar.
We also know that the Mets are the team with the deepest pockets and highest willingness to hand the star outfielder a blank check.
That doesn't mean the Mets are a guarantee. The Yankees have come much closer to contending for a World Series and Soto has already seen that up close and personal. He knows that being in a lineup with Aaron Judge can result in stellar production. The Mets may be willing to throw money around, but their roster has much bigger question marks than the Yankees pockets.
What we don't know is how far the Yankees are willing to go in the bidding war. According to Jon Heyman, they're one of four teams that are at least near the $700 million number.
I'm certain Polymarket is basing their projections on as much data as possible, but that doesn't mean they're right. Only Soto gets to determine that.