Breaking down a potential Pete Crow-Armstrong extension and its impact on the Cubs

Whatever the Chicago Cubs do in 2026, and however far they go during a potential postseason run, will partially ride on Pete Crow-Armstrong’s shoulders. That might sound unfair to an outfielder who turns 24 next March, but such is the reality when you join the 30-30 club, earn All-Star honors, win a Gold Glove, and lead the Cubs to their first playoff appearance in five years.

Although Crow-Armstrong has only played two full seasons, he’s positioned himself to cash in and earn a long-term extension with the Cubs. The MLB CBA allows teams to lock up young players, even those only weeks into their big-league careers, by buying out their arbitration years. Theoretically speaking, the Cubs could sign Crow-Armstrong ahead of the 2026 season to a deal that would keep him in Chicago through 2036.

Of course, that’s assuming that the Cubs would be interested in such a move. MLB Network insider Mark Feinsand reported in April that the Cubs had approached Crow-Armstrong about an extension worth roughly $75 million. Obviously, they did not agree to the terms, and it is unclear if the two sides have since discussed a new contract.

With the MLB offseason in full swing, let’s re-examine Crow-Armstrong’s case for a long-term deal and try to help the Cubs make a decision.

What could a Pete Crow-Armstrong extension realistically look like?

For the sake of conversation, let’s look at the eight-year, $106.75 million extension that outfielder Bryan Reynolds signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates in April 2023. Reynolds has a limited no-trade clause, and he’ll earn $15.2 million yearly from 2027-30. At the time, Reynolds was a 28-year-old who hit .281 with 74 home runs, 239 RBIs, and an .842 OPS in his first four seasons. Reynolds also tallied 13.7 bWAR in that stretch, including a 6.0 bWAR campaign in 2021.

Conversely, Crow-Armstrong turns 24 next March, so he has age on his side. He’s also fresh off a 30-30 season where he totaled 6.0 bWAR and won his first Gold Glove. However, Crow-Armstrong has a 24.2% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate in 1,076 career plate appearances. During those first four seasons, Reynolds posted a 21.7% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk percentage in 2,014 plate appearances.

Assuming that the Cubs believe that Crow-Armstrong can improve his plate discipline, an extension along the lines of eight years and $170 million doesn’t sound unrealistic to us. The Cubs can’t go to Crow-Armstrong and try to offer him $75 million after his impressive 2025 season. At the same time, the Cubs might be hesitant to offer Crow-Armstrong anything exceeding $200 million.

But there is a massive difference between $75 million and $175 million. Some might even counter that doubling the earlier proposal to $150 million might be an underpay, especially considering that PCA is entering his age-25 season. 

We don’t envy the Cubs right now, though we’d personally hold off on any further contract talks until next summer at the earliest. Let’s see whether Crow-Armstrong’s 2025 campaign is truly a sign of things to come, or if his offensive red flags grow into major concerns.

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