We have arrived at the pinnacle of basketball season — March.
The NBA is heating up, but of course, the primary focus will be on the NCAA Tournament. Before we get there, however, conference tourneys are on the docket. The Big 12 is brimming with postseason contenders. Nine teams from the conference are projected to reach the big dance, per ESPN's Joe Lunardi.
Houston is a shoo-in No.1 seed. Iowa State, Kansas, and Baylor are all potential top-3 seeds. The Big 12 Tournament has bloodbath written all over it. We should be treated to some excellent basketball. On the NBA Draft front, we will also get a chance to observe several top prospects.
We aren't far off from the draft in June and there's still a ton of uncertainty about how exactly this class will unfold. There is more room than usual for dark-horse prospects to break out and surge up draft boards.
Here is the full bracket for the Big 12 tourney, which will start on March 12 in the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.
And, here are the prospects you need to keep an eye on.
10. BYU's Jaxson Robinson needs one final push
BYU senior Jaxson Robinson rocketed up draft boards with an early-season hot spell from behind the 3-point line. The only problem? Robinson's percentages have cooled off significantly, and he's back to 34.8 percent on the season — right in line with his career average (34.0 percent) and far removed from the elite status scouts were banking on initially.
The shot looks great and Robinson gets a lot up, but if he's only an average shooter, it's hard to imagine the 21-year-old generating a ton of interest. He's younger than your average senior, a plus, but Robinson doesn't provide much on-ball juice. He is reliant on spot-up 3s, cuts to the rim, and transition offense.
NBA teams will always test out 6-foot-7 wings who can shoot and defend multiple positions, but Robinson lacks outlier athleticism and if the 3s aren't falling at even a league-average clip, he's going to fall out of favor quickly. He could really use a timely month-long scorcher beyond the arc to rekindle interest.
9. Kansas' Elmarko Jackson can prove he's ready for the big-league jump right now
Elmarko Jackson began the season ranked No. 8 on the FanSided draft board. The freshman quickly ran into trouble, mostly due to his inconsistency behind the 3-point line. Playing time has not been an issue for Jackson, even in the deep Jayhawks backcourt. He's averaging 18.1 minutes per game and he has 18 starts to his name. That's enough to at least keep NBA scouts intrigued.
Right now, however, all signs point toward Jackson sticking around for his sophomore season in Lawrence. That is, unless he can really shine in March. All the physical tools are still there. He's an explosive athlete at 6-foot-4, blessed with a deadly first step and great positional strength. He battles on defense. His feel for the game is solid.
NBA teams are waiting for Jackson to take it up a notch. Maybe that doesn't happen this season, but on the off chance that he explodes at the right time, Jackson can still catch scouts' attention in a weak class. Teams will reach for upside more than usual in 2024. If Jackson's theoretical two-way skill set starts to look less theoretical, he's a name to watch.
8. Houston's Jamal Shead is going to scrap his way to the NBA
On the surface, Jamal Shead doesn't really look the part of an NBA prospect. He's 6-foot-1, shooting 32.7 percent from deep with non-outlier athleticism. Watching him lead the top-ranked Cougars, however, makes it easy to root for Shead. He has a certain winning quality to his game, which is something NBA teams can appreciate, too.
Shead will look the follow in the footsteps of Jevon Carter, Jose Alvarado, and T.J. McConnell as a small guard whose defensive intensity gets him in the door at the next level. There is no doubting Shead's ability to set up the offense and initiate sets (6.3 assists to 2.0 turnovers) and he's a frequently explosive scorer. That might not translate as cleanly to the NBA, but his ability to suffocate ball-handlers at the point of attack will.
It's tough, because NBA offenses will target Shead relentlessly. There's only so much he can do when faced with bigger, stronger, more athletic NBA players. Heart can only take you so far. But, if the Cougars go on a deep run and Snead is taking a wrecking ball to the best offenses in the country, NBA teams won't have a choice but to buy in.
7. Texas' Dillon Mitchell wants to remind scouts of his five-star resumé
Last season, Dillon Mitchell arrived at Texas as a projected lottery pick. He quickly fell out of favor with scouts, however, and decided to return to school for a sophomore campaign. Smart. This is a weaker class. The expectation was that he would show improvement and rise up draft boards accordingly. Well, that hasn't really happened.
Mitchell is still a skinny 6-foot-8 forward with zero 3-point shot to speak of. He's a nuclear athlete who shines on backdoor cuts, lobs, and transition finishes, but all the same, he's too limited to really win over NBA front offices. He will need a quality playmaking mechanism around him at the next level. He doesn't really dribble or self-create. He requires a feeder.
And yet... he is a truly nutty athlete, and that goes a long way in a class defined by its lack of upside at the top. Mitchell is a boisterous defensive playmaker (1.1 steals, 1.0 blocks). He can cover a lot of ground and operate as a rim deterrent from the weak side. In the right setting, one can envision his combination of cuts, dunks, and high-feel role player traits blending in. Even without a jumper. So maybe, just maybe, this March serves as the launching pad Mitchell desperately needs.
6. Baylor's Jalen Bridges is the prototypical 3-and-D wing
He will have natural skeptics at 22 years old, but Baylor wing Jalen Bridges has gradually built up a strong NBA Draft portfolio over the years. His senior campaign with the Bears has been his best, averaging 11.6 points and 5.4 rebounds on .458/.416/.833 splits.
It's not difficult to decipher the appeal with Bridges at the next level. He doesn't reinvent the wheel — his upside is decidedly limited. But, he projects so cleanly as a 3-and-D role player that it doesn't really matter. He's an excellent spot-up shooter, especially in the corners. He smartly cuts into open space, takes advantage of backdoor lanes to the rim, and is comfortable hitting relocation 3s. There isn't much self-creation to speak of, but Bridges will make himself available as a play-finisher.
On defense, he's a strongly built 6-foot-7, 220-pound wing. He defends multiple positions at a high level. He's schematically aware, with sharp instincts and solid playmaking numbers (1.1 steals). His high floor is bound to appeal to teams in this year's draft in particular. If Baylor can make a run, Bridges has a chance to really enamor the NBA community.
5. Iowa State's Milan Momcilovic does stuff you just can't teach
It's not immediately clear whether or not Milan Momcilovic will declare for the 2024 draft or push it back a year. His performance in March could go a long way toward solidifying his decision in either direction. The 6-foot-8 Iowa State freshman is a wholly unique beast, blessed with unreal touch and a special knack for difficult, contested jumpers.
Generally, Momcilovic takes too many "bad" shots. He will piroutte into contested fadeaway jumpers. He will post up and work at a deliberate pace on the block, which is uncommon for modern wings. He's only averaging 1.3 assists in 30.5 minutes, so playmaking is not a strength. And yet, Momcilovic's singular attributes are exactly what makes him special. In a class deprived of star-power, there's a certain appeal to gambling on the 19-year-old who can create his own offense and hit challenging shots under duress.
Momcilovic puts absurd touch on his jumper. He can kiss shots off the glass; frequently his shots will bounce delicately around the rim before falling softly through the net. That is an underrated attribute, and it's why there's such confidence in his shooting long term despite average 3-point success (35.8 percent). A strong scoring stretch in March could plant Momcilovic firmly in the first round conversation.
4. Kansas' Kevin McCullar is ready for his one shining moment
Fifth-year senior Kevin McCullar, in his second campaign with Kansas, has fully broken out. He's averaging 18.1 points, well in excess of his previous career high set last season (10.7). He's shooting more 3s than ever, coverting 33.3 percent of his 4.5 attempts per game. Not necessarily elite, but a far cry from where McCullar began his collegiate career back at Texas Tech.
McCullar has fully won over scouts with his more industrious workload, showcasing never-before-seen competence as a slasher and self-creator in the halfcourt. He's not going to operate as a No. 1 option in the NBA, but his ability to beat closeouts, attack seams in the defense, and supply connective passing goes a long way toward projecting a comfortable fit with just about any team. Now, he gets a chance to lead Kansas through March Madness as a top option.
Even with the rapid growth on offense, McCullar butters his bread on defense. He's one of the top wing defenders in college basketball, a label he should carry over to the next level. His activity level has not wavered (1.5 steals) despite the increase in offensive responsibilities, a positive sign. There are natural red flags tied his McCullar's advanced age (22), but he's a legitimate top-20 candidate.
3. Baylor's Yves Missi can anchor an NBA defense
Baylor freshman Yves Missi has quickly ascended NBA Draft boards, to the point where a top-10 selection isn't entirely out of the question. Especially if he can put on a show in March. The 19-year-old is the centerpiece of Baylor's defense, averaging 1.5 blocks in 22.9 minutes. He projects well toward the next level, offering an appealing blend of 7-foot size, brute-force physicality, and mobility in space.
He won't guard switches on the perimeter necessarily, but Missi can step up against pick-and-rolls and effectively contain drives. He clogs the paint, blessed with quick leaping ability, a 7-foot-6 wingspan, and an impressive nose for the basketball. There is a crowded selection of bigs projected around the middle of the first round, but Missi stands out in a unique light due to his athletic profile.
On offense, Missi mostly feasts on simple finishes around the restricted area. He's a productive rim-runner and lob threat. Almost half his rebounds come on the offensive glass. While he doesn't shoot 3s, there are appealing flashes of perimeter skill from Missi, too. He will regularly face up at the elbow and attack fluidly on straight-line drives. His ability to navigate traffic and evade shot-blockers with footwork hints at upside beyond his role player trappings.
2. Baylor's Ja'Kobe Walter would benefit from a 3-point torrent
Ja'Kobe Walter is probably the surest lottery bet in the Big 12 this season, if such a thing exists. He could easily fall out of the lottery, especially if March Madness doesn't go to plan for the talented frosh. Walter gets by almost exclusively on shot-making. He's one of the most entertaining players to watch when he's rolling. He's right at home taking difficult jumpers, whether he's flying around screens into a movement 3 or popping a contested mid-range shot.
That skill set should appeal to NBA teams quite extensively. Walter doesn't need a ton of touches to pour in points and positively impact winning. He stretches defenses with off-ball movement and, while he's not prolific on the ball, he's built like a tank with a penchant for absorbing contact and drawing fouls around the rim. Walter tends to operate north to south once he's dribbling — there's not much on-ball wiggle to bank on — but he can nose his way to points all the same.
NBA teams will envision Walter navigating a maze of screens, flying into spot-up 3s, and pressuring the rim against errant closeouts. He could stand to improve as a passer, and the shooting splits aren't ideal for a player so reliant on his shot (.382/.339/.823), but all the same, Walter is a lottery-level talent. Especially when defense is factored into the equation.
1. Kansas' Johnny Furphy is ready for his breakout on the national stage
Kansas moved freshman Johnny Furphy to the starting lineup midseason and it immediately paid dividends. While Furphy is still learning the ropes, he fills a standard archetype that every NBA team covets. At 6-foot-9, he's shooting 36.4 percent on 3s, making himself available on cuts, and putting in the work to generate stops defensively.
He needs to get stronger and flesh out the rest of his skill set, but Furphy possesses a tremendous nose for the basketball. He fills lanes in transition, finishes well around the basket, and never wavers in the effort department. There is a simple plug-and-play, 3-and-D fit waiting for Furphy at the next level, even as he develops. He offers very little self-creation at this stage, but the 19-year-old has plenty of time to grow.
His minutes have fluctated at times for the Jayhawks, but Furphy is very much on the rise in NBA Draft circles. Now, he gets the chance to put together an impressive shooting display or two in March. With how the current draft class shapes up, Furphy has the chance to play top-10 spoiler if he performs well enough.