Now is the time to recalibrate your expectations for the 2024 NBA Draft. After a historically strong 2023 rookie crop, 2024 holds far less promise. That's not to say there aren't quality prospects, or even a few potential stars, but the baseline is much lower and the top prospects carry far greater risk.
We were spoiled last season. There isn't a top-5 pick from this past June that wouldn't go No. 1 overall a few months from now.
Still, there's a lot to appreciate about the 2024 draft. It's a wide-open race, which means chaos is inevitable. Team context matters more than ever, while the lottery has never been of less significance. Landing at No. 4 or No. 5 doesn't preclude you from ultimately selecting the best player. The teams with the best scouting departments will win out.
We have already been treated to several unconventional breakouts, from Kentucky's diminutive reserve backcourt of Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard, to Serbian point guard Nikola Topic, who has entered the No. 1 conversation in a big way.
Here's a look at the NBA Draft landscape as of mid-December.
2024 NBA Mock Draft: Updated Dec. 14, 2023
We shouldn't inherently trust the Charlotte Hornets to make the best decision. Last season was proof of their front office's inclination toward the college star (Brandon Miller), rather than the less conventional standout (Scoot Henderson). That said, the right pick at the moment is Nikola Topic, who has earned No. 1 pick consideration on the strength of his performance in a top professional league.
More and more, NBA teams are realizing the value of prospects who dominate European pro leagues at a young age (see: Luka Doncic, Alperen Sengun). Topic is 18 years old, one of the youngest players on the board, and he has been absolute aces for Serbia's Mega MIS, a long-running prospect hotbed.
Topic doesn't have the traditional athleticism and shot-making profile of a No. 1 point guard, but he's a prolific driver with excellent feel and craft around the rim. He operates with tremendous pace, always picking the right moment to hit the turbo button and explode down the lane. His 3-point shot looks smooth, even if the volume is lacking, and he could operate as the perfect offensive complement to a high-level connective guard like LaMelo Ball.
Alex Sarr continues to produce for the NBL's Perth Wildcats, emerging as one of the most intriguing athletes in the 2024 class. A true 7-footer with the mobility to guard in space, the fluidly to attack off the dribble, and the explosiveness to live life above the rim, Sarr has all the trappings of a modern-day center.
The defense pops. He's a potentially elite rim protector, with plus instincts and the ability to cover ground. He can switch out to the 3-point line, operate as a weak-side roamer, or anchor a defense in drop coverage. There are more questions about the offense, but Sarr flashes a 3-point shot with the ability to attack in straight-line drives, hit the occasional pull-up jumper, or finish easy lobs inside.
He will occasionally lose the physicality battle in the NBA, especially early on, but the Blazers could view Sarr as a much stronger star bet in the middle than Deandre Ayton.
The Jazz are — and should be — encouraged by the early progress from Keyonte George, who was almost immediately handed the reins as starting point guard. Still, Utah could use a more traditional ball-handler to split backcourt duties with George long term. Collier has been the best freshman prospect in college basketball, leading the charge for a fun (if deeply flawed) USC team.
At 6-foot-3, there are valid concerns about Collier's 3-point shooting (32.0 percent on 2.8 attempts) and turnovers (4.4 turnovers to 4.2 assists), but the physical tools shine through. He's built like a battering ram, barreling through contact for finishes at the rim, flashing promise as a pull-up shooter in the mid-range, and progressing as a decision-maker off drives. His first step will guarantee dribble penetration. As the game slows down and he learns to better leverage his downhill gravity, Collier has special upside.
The Pistons are the NBA's greatest disappointment. The roster is a mess — a hodgepodge of mismatched pieces Monty Williams has no clue how to use. The product will inevitably improve, as there's nowhere to go but up, but the Pistons need to focus at least a little bit on fit next June.
Zacchaire Risacher makes a lot of sense as a malleable 6-foot-10 wing who can splash 3s, attack closeouts, and make quick decisions on offense. He's also a tremendous defender, with the ability to potentially guard 1-4 as he gains muscle. The Pistons don't need another ball-dominant creator or another big. Spacing and wing defense are the needs — Risacher comfortably checks both boxes.
The G-League Ignite's slow start to the season ultimately won't hurt Matas Buzelis too much. He has looked comfortable upon his return from injury. The early 3-point numbers are worrisome, but the key word there is early. Four games is hardly a suitable sample size, and there's reason to buy Buzelis' mechanics and touch. (He's shooting 16.7 percent from deep, but 75.0 percent at the free throw line).
Buzelis might not have No. 1 upside, but he's a well-rounded 6-foot-9 wing who can fluidly navigate tight spaces off the dribble, push the tempo, and score in a variety of ways — both as a slasher and as an off-ball cutter. He pops with his activity and anticipation skills on defense and he has the connective traits to impact winning from an early age. He'd be a much more interesting jumbo-point guard experiment in San Antonio than Jeremy Sochan.
Ron Holland has rebounded admirably from a god-awful start to the season. He's still averaging more turnovers (3.7) than assists (2.8) and the 3-point shot has been inconsistent (27.5 percent), but Holland is often a force for good with his defensive activity and aggressive downhill attacking. The game will slow down for Holland eventually, which should lead to more coordinated drives that take advantage of his bursty athleticism and soft touch. Right now, there are still moments where Holland feels out of control.
He's probably not a future creator or go-to scorer, but Holland is a strong bet to impact winning with his effort level and complementary skills. The Wizards could use another high-leverage defender to boost the young core. Holland and Bilal Coulibaly would wreak havoc in passing lanes and frequently erase operational space for opponents. Easier looks should help the 3-point percentage. But, the Wizards would need to look elsewhere for their next primary engine.
Cody Williams has been rocketing up draft boards with an efficient and productive season at Colorado. The younger brother of Thunder forward Jalen Williams, Cody has been deployed in a dynamic role for the Buffaloes, oscillating between small-ball big, power-driving wing, and even point guard.
There are still rough edges to Williams' game, but his comfort handling the rock, pushing the tempo in transition, and making decisions in the flow of the offense has been promising. He's scoring prolifically at the rim and he's hitting 60.0 percent of his 3s, albeit at a small volume. Factor in the defensive activity and inherent versatility of a 6-foot-9 athlete like Williams, and he's on the lottery track. The Grizzlies could use a bankable two-way wing.
Ja'Kobe Walter has impressed scouts with his shot-making and defensive intensity at Baylor. He showcases deep range on his 3-point shot, both off the catch and off the dribble. Walter isn't overly explosive and he doesn't pressure the rim, but he can beat closeouts with runners or mid-range pull-ups.
Chicago shouldn't expect much creation from Walter, who has a propensity for contested jumpers and limited assist numbers (1.1 per game). Growth as a ball-handler could unlock a considerable ceiling, but Walter's winning mentality on defense — hard-nosed at the point of attack and vulturous in passing lanes — combined with his movement shooting and play-finishing should keep him lottery-bound no matter what.
Rob Dillingham's slender 6-foot-1 frame is a valid source of concern. He's going to get targeted by NBA offenses, probably with great success. But, in a class with minimal concrete star-power, it's difficult to ignore the offensive flashes from Kentucky's backup point guard. Dillingham has been a treat to watch, and he could fit beautifully as the creative ball-handler San Antonio desperately needs next to Victor Wembanyama.
Billed as an erratic shot-chucker coming out of the Overtime Elite league, Dillingham has been nothing short of a revelation for the Wildcats. He's making advanced decisions on the move (4.9 assists to 1.8 turnovers), combining elite 3-point shooting with the shifty downhill playmaking necessary to unlock the Spurs' stagnant offense. Dillingham a joy to watch, slicing up defenses with constant gear shifts, side-to-side handles, and a deadly first step. If he can hang on defense, Dillingham has legitimate All-Star upside.
Ryan Dunn doesn't space the floor yet, which is the primary red flag teams will wrestle with. Otherwise, he's a tremendous fit for the Hawks, supplying elite wing defense and athletic play-finishing around the rim. He can set screens and dive to the rim for simple finishes, and Trae Young is probably the best NBA point guard to mitigate Dunn's offensive limitations.
The defense is genuinely absurd. Dunn is playmaking at a historic rate on that end of the floor, averaging 2.6 steals and 2.6 blocks in 26.0 minutes per game. He's approaching Matisse Thybulle territory, but with superior size and the ability to guard up a few positions at 6-foot-8. The Hawks need to figure out the defense around Young. Dunn can change the makeup of Atlanta's rotation from day one.
Stephon Castle missed a month to a meniscus injury, but he still factors prominently into the lottery conversation. He will remain a fixture in the Huskies' lineup all season, playing competitive basketball for the reigning NCAA champs. The Blazers don't need another guard, but at 6-foot-6, Castle has the size and malleable skill set necessary to carve out a niche in Portland's crowded backcourt. He's the best prospect available, and a strong investment for any franchise.
He will need to prove the 3-point shot is reliable, but big guards with Castle's ability to shift gears, attack the middle, and create off the bounce are generally smart bets. Castle is built with 215 pounds of pure muscle, which he puts to use on finishes at the rim. What he lacks in vertical explosiveness, he makes up for with creativity and enough shot-making flashes to convince Portland of his upside.
The Pelicans have a fairly balanced roster at first glance, but center is a potential area of need as Jonas Valanciunas ages out of his prime and approaches the end of his contract. Donovan Clingan has been every bit as good as advertised in year two, averaging 2.1 blocks in 20.8 minutes as UConn's foremost rim deterrent.
Listed 7-foot-2 with a 7-foot-7 wingspan, Clingan offers maybe the highest defensive floor in the draft. He will be exploitable in certain matchups, sure, but he's a fundamentally sound drop coverage rim protector who can cover immense ground with his mere shadow. Clingan isn't a stiff either, blessed with soft touch on finishes around the rim and passing vision from the block. At 265 pounds, few mismatches can handle Clingan's sheer physicality in the post.
Kyle Filipowski surprised many with his decision to return to Duke for a second season. As expected, he has been the foundation of the Blue Devils' offense, averaging 18.4 points on efficient .515/.324/.736 splits. Filipowski provides unique offensive versatility from the center position, drawing Kelly Olynyk comparisons with his ability to elegantly drive the lane, pass on the move, and score from beyond the arc.
There are concerns about Filipowski's limited vertical athleticism and short wingspan, but he's a smart team defender who supplies a competitive edge. NBA teams would love to see the 3-point consistency improve, but the shot looks fine and Filipowski's upside as a passing hub and staple in two-man actions on the perimeter should appeal to the Suns, who need an heir to Jusuf Nurkic's throne sooner than later.
Kevin McCullar has exploded in his senior season for the Jayhawks, upping his playmaking volume as a drive-and-kick threat while maintaining his impeccable defensive reputation on the wing. McCullar operates as a 6-foot-6, 205-pound missile, blowing up passing lanes to the tune of 1.4 steals per game. He's a hound at the point of attack and the effort never wavers.
On offense, the 3-point shot has finally come around. He's shooting 37.8 percent on 3.7 attempts, both college career highs. His plus instincts, efficient finishing (56.5 percent on 2s), and upside as a secondary, connective playmaker make it easy to envision McCullar as an instant impact role player for a Rockets team looking to take the next step. He's 22 years old, in his fifth college season, but it's clear McCullar has desirable role player traits.
Ke'el Ware has elevated his stock considerably as a sophomore transfer, stepping into Trayce Jackson-Davis' shoes for Indiana. A mobile 7-footer who can finish lobs, protect the rim, and occasionally stretch his game out to the 3-point line, Ware makes for a smart OKC investment either behind or alongside Chet Holmgren in the frontcourt.
Reed Sheppard was a little-discussed four-star recruit, but he has quickly emerged as Kentucky's best player. Supplying electric movement shooting, secondary ball-handling, and a serious nose for the ball on defense, Sheppard screams impact role player despite his limited 6-foot-2 frame. He's constantly in the right place at the right time on defense, and the offense has been borderline flawless — 13.0 points and 3.8 assists (1.3 turnovers) on .612/.590/.923 splits. Time for the Thunder to grab another quality connective guard from Kentucky.
There is obvious sentimental value to such a pick, but Bronny James does actually address on-court needs for Cleveland. Wing depth — more importantly, wing depth that can both defend and shoot. James isn't a high-level creator, but he's a top-notch defensive stopper who can bomb spot-up 3s, move without the ball, and make quick decisions in the flow of the offense. Whether this encourages another move home for LeBron or not, it's a great pick for Cleveland so long as the medicals check out.
Justin Edwards has struggled to live up to expectations in the early going. He has time to turn his season around, but the defense has been less than ideal and he's struggling from the field — most notably from 3-point range, where he's converting only 25.9 percent of his 3.0 attempts per game. Edwards is still 6-foot-8 with flashes of off-ball scoring to warrant a look from a team with Miami's developmental track record, but the sky is starting to fall in Lexington.
It has been something of a mixed-bag season for Izan Almansa with the G-League Ignite. The Spaniard has displayed promising instincts on defense (1.0 steal, 1.5 blocks) and he's a clever offensive player, capable of quick decisions working out of pick-and-rolls or operating at the elbow. That said, the 3-point shooting hasn't conveyed as of yet and the Ignite have not done him any favors with their roster construction. The Knicks could use another role-playing forward to fill the Obi Toppin minutes.
Tyrese Proctor suffered an ankle injury last week, compounding a relatively slow start to the season. He is Duke's anointed point guard, but limitations as a scorer persist. His basketball I.Q., feel working out of pick-and-rolls, and plus size at 6-foot-5 are selling points, but it's difficult to buy Proctor as more than a backup ball-handler and connector if he can't up his 3-point percentage or start scoring around the rim.
Oso Ighodaro is wholly unique, but his skill set should find a home in the NBA. The Hawks are going to move on from Clint Capela eventually, opening up minutes for Ighodaro as a backup center who can share the court with a floor-spacing five as needed. He's 6-foot-9 and he doesn't shoot 3s, but Ighodaro's passing creativity, crafty paint scoring, and heads-up defense should impact winning positively.
The Carlton Carrington hype train has slowed after his red-hot start. There's still plenty to like from a freshman guard averaging 6.1 assists to 1.9 turnovers while shooting at Carrington's clip (14.9 points on .430/.348/.786 splits), but his complete aversion to the painted area and wavering efficiency is cause for concern. He settles for difficult jumpers and he doesn't provide much resistance on defense. Still, the Pacers could find a suitable home for Carrington's shot-making and supplemental passing alongside Tyrese Haliburton.
Aday Mara's role has been all over the place at UCLA and his transition to college basketball has been bumpier than expected. Still, he's a towering rim protector with feather-soft touch and passing chops needed to carve out a consistent offensive presence at the next level. The Nuggets could look to him as a long-term defensive anchor and play-finisher to work behind Nikola Jokic on the depth chart.
There's plenty to be intrigued about when it comes to D.J. Wagner. He gets low and explodes downhill with a potent first step and stop-start handles. Billed as a great guard finisher out of high school, however, Wagner has struggled to score from just about everywhere on the floor at Kentucky. The 3s aren't falling and he looks erratic in the paint, running into brick walls time and time again. He has time to improve, and the defensive activity has been promising, but Wagner profiles more as a late-round gamble than a lottery pick right now.
A rangy 6-foot-5 wing who covers a lot of ground defensively, Kobe Johnson could be just what the doctor ordered for Indiana. The Pacers' defense has been one massive turnstile for the most part in 2023, but Johnson's activity level and playmaking instincts (1.0 blocks, 2.4 steals) could provide an immediate boost. He needs to figure out the offense — at least the 3-point shot — but his impressive feel and intangibles should warrant first round investment.
Back from a torn ACL, Trevon Brazile has reminded NBA teams why he was on the first round radar before the injury in 2023. A rangy, explosive 6-foot-9 forward with great help-side instincts on defense, Brazile could contribute straight away with his defensive playmaking in the frontcourt. On offense, he's mostly a product of simple finishes and offensive rebounds, but Brazile is shooting 45.2 percent from 3-point range to date — a highly promising devleopment.
Tristan da Silva has been a rockstar for Colorado to start his senior season. The Bucks are looking for plug-and-play prospects. What he lacks in athleticism and traditional upside, da Silva compensates for with high feel and a diverse skill set. At 6-foot-9, da Silva rockets impressive passes from various spots on the floor and he looks comfortable flowing into pull-up jumpers. He's averaging 16.4 points on .556/.410/.857 splits, while playing quality team defense to boot.
Orlando's guard rotation needs some pruning, but Trey Alexander is a potential fit at 6-foot-4 due to his shot versatility. The Magic need spacers, so Alexander's ability to bomb 3s while playing on or off the ball is an intriguing proposition. His efficiency has suffered in recent weeks, but the junior has made noticeable strides as a playmaker while continuing to stress defenses beyond the arc.
He's in the earlier stages of development, but Tidjane Salaun makes for a wise long-term investment for a deep contender in Boston's vein. At 6-foot-10, he flashes the kind of shot-making versatility and defensive playmaking that should help teams overlook the inconsistencies of youth. He can guard multiple positions, play above the rim and out in transition, and the 3-pointers look smooth out of his hand — even if the percentages and volume tend to waver.
The Wolves are still in need of Mike Conley's eventual replacement. Tyler Kolek is a small senior guard who doesn't boast the sexiest NBA Draft profile on paper, but his intuition working out of pick-and-rolls and his confident 3-point shooting provide the foundation for rock-solid point guard play. He will have unavoidable restrictions at the next level, most notably on defense, but Kolek is an accomplished college vet who should make the professional transition quickly.