The 2024 NBA Draft is a handful of short months away. We are still in the thick of the college and NBA seasons, so certainty is at a bare minimum. We can't know the exact draft order until the lottery, and now, we won't even know which prospects are picked on which day. The NBA is planning to spread June's draft across two days. That will be quite the adjustment for all involved.
You've probably heard this already, but the 2024 class doesn't exactly measure up to 2023 (or any of the last few draft classes, frankly). The top is a complete free-for-all. The No. 1 pick will probably be determined by which team gets the pick, not which prospect has been hailed as the golden goose for the last half-decade.
Several candidates are in the mix right now. ESPN recently polled 20 NBA executives on who will be the top pick. Perth's Alex Sarr received the most votes with 12, followed by G League Ignite's Ron Holland (2), USC's Isaiah Collier (1), and Red Star's Nikola Topic (1). Four executives simply refused to answer, which is the perfect summation of how nonsensical the question even is right now. There is no clear-cut choice.
In addition to those on the ESPN poll, JL Bourg's Zaccharie Risacher, Colorado's Cody Williams, and G League Ignite's Matas Buzelis all merit special attention when it comes to potential No. 1 picks. So much of the draft landscape won't become clear until individual workouts start and teams begin to develop more concrete opinions, often with a heavy flavor of recency bias.
So, as we embark on yet another mock draft, keep in mind just how muddied the field is. Team context will matter more than is usually does from the very beginning.
We determined the lottery order via Tankathon simulation. And, with the first pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, the Detroit Pistons select...
2024 NBA Mock Draft: Updated Jan. 18, 2024
The G League Ignite have done Ron Holland no favors with their lackluster point guard play and compressed spacing. Holland has been a volatile presence on draft boards due to his 3-point inconsistency and turnover woes, but he's still a bursty 6-foot-7 wing whose two-way skill set merits consideration at the top.
Holland covers a ton of ground on defense. He doesn't project as a go-to shot creator, but Holland can get downhill quickly off the catch, using an explosive first step and long strides to attack the heart of opposing defenses. Holland's athleticism pops, and in a class short on established top-end talent, NBA teams are bound to covet his particular archetype.
The Pistons can streamline his role on offense while investing in the defensive kineticism of Holland and Ausar Thompson on the wing.
Alex Sarr built up a lot of momentum prior to a recent hip injury. The 7-footer is the classic No. 1 pick candidate from the 2024 class. He boasts elite physical tools, standing 7-foot-1 and equipped with a rangy 7-foot-5 wingspan. Sarr fits the direction of today's game. He can stick with ball-handlers on the perimeter or defend the paint. He needs to get stronger, but Sarr's instincts as a help-side rim protector present a high floor.
He needs to get out of his own way at times offensively, but Sarr can operate as a simple play-finisher or as a more dynamic stretch big. His coordination on straight-line drives is highly promising. Sarr often falls back on contested jumpers more than he should, but his touch extends out to the 3-point line. If he can embrace physicality in the paint and become a more consistent shooter, there's no denying the upside.
The Blazers have plenty of frontcourt talent, but DeAndre Ayton isn't a long-term solution and Robert Williams is frequently injured.
Nikola Topic was recalled to Red Star, only to get injured a couple of games into his Euroleague tenure. It was a minor setback, but it shouldn't impact his draft stock. The 18-year-old Serbian is the No. 1 prospect on the FanSided board. His positional size, knack for rim pressure, and advanced playmaking chops serve as the foundation for arguably the draft's best creator.
He doesn't possess elite athletic tools, but Topic is a preternaturally gifted slasher. He knows how to time his drives, often lulling defenders to sleep with expertly timed hesitations before smashing the gas pedal and gliding down the lane. Topic is an elite finisher due to his size, touch, and craft. He needs to up the 3-point volume, but there's reason to buy the jumper long-term.
Topic unconventional, but more and more, we are seeing tall, high-I.Q. guards reinvent how we understand the game. The Rockets could see him as the heir apparent to Fred VanVleet.
Zaccharie Risacher has been a primary beneficiary of the perceived weakness of this draft class. While he doesn't possess the highest ceiling, teams will naturally gravitate toward the 6-foot-10 wing that can shoot, drive, and defend at a high level. Risacher has done next to nothing as a self-creator, but he hits catch-and-shoot 3s up at a high clip, he's an active off-ball mover, and he tends to make sound decisions in the flow of the offense.
In addition to his highly coveted 3-and-D attributes, Risacher qualifies as one of the best perimeter defenders in the draft. He can switch 1-4. Few players his size navigate screens and contain the point of attack so elegantly. Away from the ball, he's a timely help defender with the length to erase passing lanes.
He's the perfect plug-and-play wing next to Trae Young in Atlanta.
Rob Dillingham is one of the most polarizing prospects on the board. The diminutive guard has been Kentucky's most reliable source of playmaking. He's a speedy, endlessly creative ball-handler with extreme confidence and proficiency as a pull-up shooter. Dillingham has oscillated between on and off-ball duties for Kentucky. He's equally comfortable stepping into movement 3s and attacking a rotating defense off the catch.
Once dinged at lower levels for erratic decision-making, Dillingham has proven that he can translate his imagination and self-assurance to higher levels of competition while also tightening the screws elsewhere. He doesn't turn the ball over much. He's also a real playmaking force on the defensive end, but there are unavoidable concerns about his slender 6-foot-2 frame translating to the NBA. He will be a frequent target of smart pro offenses.
The Spurs have the defensive backbone to cover for Dillingham. Meanwhile, his craft working out of pick-and-rolls would perfectly complement Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio desperately needs a point guard.
Reed Sheppard has impacted winning more than almost any freshman of the last decade. There are natural concerns tied to his slight 6-foot-3 frame and limited athleticism, but the dude knows how to play the game. He's one of the best 3-point shooters in college basketball and he's primed to connect dots for an offense at the next level. Sheppard processes the game like a high-powered computer and he doesn't often stumble into mistakes.
While it's fair to express skepticism about the defensive ceiling of a guard in Sheppard's mold, he displays air-tight fundamentals at the point of attack and his instincts are off the charts. Sheppard is a polished pickpocket and a frequent purveyor of transition offense. If NBA teams want surefire effort and reliability in a class short on anything surefire, Sheppard is the pick.
For Washington, Sheppard is the perfect addition. He's a teenager with the poise of a college senior. He can hit 3s, make the right plays on offense, and provide defensive stability to a team in desperate need of winners. Sheppard is a winner.
The collective struggles of USC have shined a harsh spotlight on Isaiah Collier's shortcomings. He is still a singular athlete, built with tank-esque strength at 6-foot-5. His ability to bulldoze his way to finishes at the rim is not common in smaller guards, for better or worse. Still, Collier has struggled to maintain a consistent 3-point shot and he's averaging more turnovers than assists. For every impressive live-dribble skip pass, Collier will sprint headlong into a triple team and cough it up. His decision-making has to improve.
His tools and upside will maintain lottery interest in such a weak class, but there's reason to believe Collier is best suited to a secondary role out of the gates. He has the tools to supply consistent stops on the perimeter, but defensive engagement hasn't been a strength of Collier either. He has a lot to prove over the final months of the college season.
Charlotte can pair Collier with one of the NBA's most selfless and creative initiators in LaMelo Ball. Pairing Collier's penchant for paint touches with Ball's rapid-fire setup style is a smart bet. Terry Rozier's days are numbered. Collier is the next man up in the backcourt.
Kel'el Ware has blossomed in his sophomore season. He's one of the top shot-blockers in college basketball with the ideal skill set for the modern five. Ware is a bouncy 7-footer who plays comfortably above the rim. His 3s are more sporadic than one might like, but Ware has touch on jumpers and in-between shots. There are physicality concerns tied to his thin frame, but Ware is a fluid athlete with major two-way upside in a weak class.
NBA teams will surely streamline Ware's responsibilities early on. He should feast on lobs and easy finishes. He can run the court like a gazelle in transition. On the defensive end, his mobility in space and high-level instincts make him adaptable to different schemes.
The Spurs pair Ware and Wembanyama in the frontcourt, betting on their ability to cover ground and contribute in different areas of the floor offensively. With Dillingham at the controls, suddenly San Antonio looks more balanced and far more intimidating.
Cody Williams has been pleasantly productive and efficient for Colorado. He's a toolsy 6-foot-8 wing who is comfortable pushing the tempo in transition, attacking the rim on straight-line drives, and locating open teammates on the move. There are red flags — Williams doesn't take a lot of 3s, his handle is loose, and he's reliant mostly on athleticism right now — but NBA teams will overlook a lot of flaws to bet on upside and raw output in this draft cycle.
Every NBA team is on the lookout for big wings that can pass, dribble, and shoot. Williams has the upside to check every box with aplomb. In the meantime, he should offer enough utility as a transition scorer and play-finisher to get by. On defense, he's comfortable guarding across the positional spectrum.
The Grizzlies' wing rotation has been a mess for a while. Williams might need time, but he gives Memphis a flexible multi-hyphenate with the upside to grow into a secondary creation role next to Ja Morant.
Matas Buzelis has struggled for reasons both situational and self-inflicted. The Ignite is simply not a positive ecosystem for player development at the moment. Buzelis is also struggling with his shot, especially from 3-point range. Teams will have trouble buying his ceiling as a jumbo-sized playmaking wing if defenses don't respect him on the perimeter.
That said, Buzelis displays soft touch around the rim and the jumper comes off his hands smooth. Buy stock. At 6-foot-9, he is the ideal modern wing in a sense. He makes quick decisions with the ball, he's fluid attacking the lane, and he's comfortable in various stages of the offense. Buzelis can thrive as an off-ball spacer and cutter, or he can get downhill and deliver passes on the move. The defense is a work in progress, but the tools and I.Q. figure to covert eventually.
Portland continues to stock up on size with its second lottery pick. The Blazers can remove the burden from Buzelis' shoulders in the early going, allowing him to attack seams in the defense created by the burgeoning playmaking apparatus of Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, and Shaedon Sharpe.
Ja'Kobe Walter has been one of the most productive freshmen in college basketball. His limitations as a self-creator are notable for a 6-foot-5 guard, but Walter has displayed a knack for shot-making that should help teams overlook those concerns. He's a versatile, extremely self-assured 3-point shooter who can fire off of screens or get downhill and flow into pull-up jumpers.
He won't generate much separation with his handle or create for others, but Walter has the ball-handling functionality needed to beat closeouts and get to his spots. Walter's ability to hit difficult jumpers hints at upside, however faint. At the worst, he's a bankable 3-and-D wing, blessed with a strong frame and a talent for suffocating the point of attack.
Chicago is a directionless franchise with no one clear "need." Walter is a malleable prospect that should fit just about anywhere. Let him sprint around the 3-point line, step into easy jumpers, and put the work in on defense, and the results are bound to be positive.
Kyle Filipowski has popped as a sophomore, as expected. He's firmly in the lottery conversation, profiling as arguably the most skilled 7-footer on the board. Filipowskl's offensive versatility should allow him to adapt to just about any role at the next level. Bigs that can dribble, pass, and shoot tend to elicit confidence. He has upped his 3-point percentage and assists while decreasing turnovers compared to last season. At 20 years old, he still has plenty of time for further growth.
A common criticism of Filipowski is that he is a jack of all trades, but master of none. At the next level, he will need to up his 3-point volume and prove that this isn't a flash in the pan. He's fluid facing up and attacking downhill, but Filipowski isn't a tier-one athlete. His negative wingspan presents concerns, both as a finisher and a defender. Filipowski's rim protection has improved as a sophomore, but he's still going to face a steep learning curve in the NBA.
It's hard to imagine a better frontcourt partner for Filipowski at the next level than Chet Holmgren. He's a complement on defense and offense. OKC has made it a priority to invest in skill at every position; Filipowski fits right in.
Tyler Smith's appeal is rather simple. He's shooting the lights out at 6-foot-10, with compact mechanics and effortless touch. Smith is comfortable curling around screens like a guard. He can run pick-and-pops. Smith doesn't offer the most robust skill set, but he will use his athleticism for simple finishes at the rim. NBA teams are always on the hunt for big, skilled wings.
There are complaints aplenty about Smith on defense. He has a worrying track record of lapses in awareness. He does most of his damage as a help defender, but that won't end well if he falls asleep at the wheel. Still, there is upside rooted in Smith's 7-foot-1 wingspan and plus mobility. He flashes as a weak-side rim protector and he can navigate the perimeter well enough.
The Pelicans are deep at every position. Smith would plug into the second unit as another versatile 3-and-D piece to work in behind Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, and Naji Marshall.
Ryan Dunn will have a lot to prove on offense at the next level, but he's one of the top defensive playmakers in recent college basketball history. At 6-foot-8, Dunn phases in and out of passing lanes like a phantom. He can lock up the point of attack or accrue blocks with his peerless anticipation skills. He will stick in the NBA so long as teams can't completely ignore him on offense.
Dunn is an active cutter and plus athlete who can get out in transition or feast on simple finishes. The big question mark is his 3-point shot. Dunn's volume and efficiency leave much to be desired right now. He doesn't really handle the rock or provide much else outside the paint, so he will need the right setup at the next level. If Dunn is surrounded by playmakers and shooters, however, he should find success.
Naturally, OKC is a great fit. The Thunder can afford to swing for upside and preach patience. If Dunn hits, combining his defensive activity with Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, and Jalen Williams is a tantalizing thought.
Pretty simple pick. The Suns need a center to take the reins from Jusuf Nurkic. Donovan Clingan has dealt with injuries, but he's a towering 7-foot-2 rim protector with polished defensive fundamentals, soft touch around the rim, and enough passing flashes to buy stock in the offense long term.
Orlando aims for win-now help in Kevin McCullar, a grizzled five-year college vet who will supply instant value as a heady wing defender, spot shooter, and connective passer. He's one of the best players in the nation right now, far too productive to fall much further than this.
The Raptors start their rebuild with an upside swing. Tidjane Salaun has been rocketing up draft boards due to tantalizing displays of shot-making and athleticism at 6-foot-9. He's not very polished as a decision-maker, but Salaun semi-regularly hits difficult jumpers and his defensive motor is commendable. In such a wide-open draft, teams will naturally gravitate toward the high-risk, high-reward prospects.
Dalton Knecht has put together a magical senior season at Tennessee. His talent for off-ball scoring should translate rather quickly to the next level. Knecht is a dangerous 3-point shooter who thrives attacking closeouts, finishing off of cuts, and operating within the flow of the offense. There are defensive and athletic limitations, but at 6-foot-7, his positional size and high I.Q. is enough to bank on.
One of the draft's best under-the-radar prospects, Ajay Mitchell has been exceedingly productive at UC Santa Barbara. The middling strength of competition is notable, but Mitchell's creativity as a ball-handler and finisher is second to none. He creates angles with pure craft and physicality. If the 3-point shot comes on strong one day, he will have a long career. The Pelicans could use another point guard to study under CJ McCollum.
The Knicks face questions about the future of their frontcourt. Mitchell Robinson is a tremendous talent, but he's frequently injured. Isaiah Hartenstein is a free agent at season's end. Yves Missi doesn't reinvent the wheel, but he's an athletic 7-footer with excellent rim protection instincts and a thundering physicality in the paint.
Injuries disrupted Stephon Castle's season, but he's still a 6-foot-6 guard with exceptional tempo and craft as a ball-handler. Castle is distributing at a high level and displaying his talent for scoring off drives with the reigning champs. He needs to get better from 3-point range, but Castle has major steal potential if he tumbles on draft night. The Hawks could soon be in the market for a new backcourt partner for Trae Young.
Jared McCain is scorching the nets at Duke. He doesn't provide much burst or live-dribble creation upside, but McCain is a whip-smart operator who strives to accentuate and elevate teammates. He plays the right way. He's a perfect 'Heat Culture' dude.
UCLA has been one massive disappointment, but Adem Bona continues to catch the attention of NBA scouts with his explosive finishes and relentless defensive motor at 6-foot-10. The Cavaliers could see Bona's high-intensity style and explosive verticality as a long-term fit in the frontcourt.
After sprinting out of the gates, Bub Carrington's freshman breakout has slowed to a light jog. Even so, he's a dynamic perimeter shot-maker and creative passer who doesn't commit copious turnovers. The concerns about his complete inability to pressure the rim are real, but high-I.Q. guards in Carrington's vein tend to warrant patience. OKC can take a flier on his skill set as a complement to SGA, who is always operating with at least one foot in the painted area.
The Nuggets want high-character, experienced prospects that can learn Denver's complex offense. The roster's primary area of weakness right now is backup center. Zeke Nnaji is a no-show and DeAndre Jordan in old. Enter 6-foot-9 Oso Ighodaro. There are valid questions about his defense and lack of floor-spacing to compensate for a below-the-rim style, but Ighodaro is a clever frontcourt playmaking hub that can stimulate the offense when Nikola Jokic sits.
Philadelphia gambles on a high-profile recruit in D.J. Wagner to address their backup point guard need. Wagner has struggled to score efficiently at Kentucky, but he's a dynamic athlete with a special talent for getting to the rim and carving out finishes. The Sixers could bank on him finding more success with NBA spacing.
Another malleable wing to integrate into the Raptors' system. Bobi Klintman has performed well after transitioning from Wake Forest to Australia's NBL. His role is different, but there's still natural appeal to a 6-foot-10 wing that can hit spot 3s, fluidly handle in space, and deliver live-dribble passes from various spots on the floor.
Despite the widespread disappointment of USC's season to date, Kobe Johnson is an elite wing defender who continues to offer glimpses of functional 3-point shooting. He will struggle to score at the next level, but Johnson understands how to fit within a team context. He's a high-feel player on both ends and he fits an archetype the Bucks generally need in their rotation.
Tyler Kolek is a pick-and-roll wizard whose passing I.Q. and 3-point volume provide a high offensive floor. He won't pressure the rim or offer much resistance on defense due to his athletic limitations, but he's a ready-made bench guard that could learn a thing or two from Mike Conley.
A rather unique do-it-all wing, Dillon Jones should carve out a role at the next level on the basis of versatility and basketball I.Q. He's 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds — strong enough to bulldoze smaller defenders in the paint, but crafty enough to generate mid-range looks from scratch. Boston can look to develop Jones into a versatile connector off the bench.