The Houston Astros answered their biggest remaining question this offseason big signing Josh Hader to a record contract. In doing so, Houston forms one of the scariest back-end bullpen trios in baseball with Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu. A season-ending injury suffered by Kendall Graveman increased the Astros urgency to make such a deal.
The Hader contract -- worth $95 million over the next five years with no deferrals -- proves Houston is all-in on the 2024 season. Beyond that, though, the Astros face some serious questions about their homegrown stars, as FanSided's Zach Rotman pointed out when examining Hader's deal:
"For 2024, the Astros were already scary without Hader. Now with him, they have an argument for the best team not only in the American League West, but in the entire American League. The contract raises questions about the future, but that's not for anyone to worry about right now. The Astros got their guy, and that's frightening."
Houston has sacrificed long-term stability to go for another World Series. It would be this core's third, with the previous two occurring in 2017 and 2022.
4. Alex Bregman could be traded if things go south for Astros
Alex Bregman is in the final year of his contract and remains an integral part of the Astros core. Bregman is just 30 years old, and if Houston remains a contender this season, an extension could be in his future. However, Bregman's name was also floated in trade conversations this winter because he and Houston remain far apart in extension discussions. With the addition of Hader and $95 million to the long-term payroll, consider those extension talks tabled for now.
If Bregman plays like the All-Star third baseman he's proven to be in the past -- and still proves he has range defensively at the hot corner -- there will be a number of teams willing to overpay next winter. Bregman hitting the free agent market is likely his agent's goal, which doesn't help matters. Michael Shapiro of the Houston Chronicle wrote that while he has a tough time believing the Astros will trade Bregman as long as they're contending, an extension isn't necessarily in the cards either.
"The Astros have demonstrated they don’t mind surveying the contract landscape in free agency, then securing compensatory draft picks as key pieces leave. I suspect that could be the endgame with Bregman. And while receiving such little return next winter would be painful, I have a hard time believing the Astros would entertain a trade-deadline deal of Bregman, let alone a franchise-deflating move before the calendar turns to April," Shapiro wrote.
Houston let Carlos Correa leave. Bregman could be next.
3. The Houston Astros don't have a plan with Jose Altuve
Jose Altuve is a fan favorite in Houston and if the Astros players are to be believed, pretty much the only member of their 2017 World Series team not to benefit from the sign-stealing scandal. Altuve admitted on The Baseball Insiders podcast to Robert Murray and Adam Weinrib that he and the Astros had yet to engage in contract discussions. This is a big issue for Houston given Altuve is set to enter free agency alongside Bregman next winter.
While a trade of Altuve is unlikely for many reason, the biggest of which being he is a franchise icon, should the Astros season go south just about anything is possible. Altuve plays second base and his range hasn't declined much over the years. He is set to be 34 years old at the end of his current deal, which would make him more willing to sign an extension in Houston, and perhaps an affordable one.
Still, the $95 million remaining on Hader's contract makes it all the more likely that the Astros would also let Altuve walk after this season and replace him from within. Reliable veterans don't grow on trees, but if Altuve's best days are behind him, why overpay for a hitter on the decline without much power to rely on?
2. Framber Valdez has already been mentioned in trade talks
It was reported earlier this offseason that the Astros were shopping Framber Valdez. With Justin Verlander back in the fold, there's a chance that a player like Valdez is expendable. Add in one of the best bullpens in baseball behind this starting rotation, and suddenly starting pitching isn't such an obstacle.
If a team is willing to overbid for Valdez before Opening Day, and that same trade allows the Astros to fill a void on the roster for 2024, they may as well go for it. Chandler Rome of The Athletic noted earlier this offseason that the Astros were lacking financial flexibility. How do you think that's going after the Hader contract?
"Moving either Valdez or Urquidy would afford the financial flexibility Brown does not currently have and, perhaps, bring players back who can address the team’s immediate needs. MLB Trade Rumors projects Valdez will earn $12.1 million through the arbitration process in January. Urquidy, meanwhile, is predicted to make $3.5 million in arbitration," Rome wrote.
Valdez is an expendable asset, and the Astros don't have many of those as they chase a ring in 2024.
1. Kyle Tucker may not be back with Astros in 2025
Prior to the start of the MLB offseason, FanSided MLB Insider Robert Murray considered extensions for the Astros core -- namely Kyle Tucker -- to be one of the more important items on the Astros list. As mentioned above, Houston has not made it a priority, which could come back to haunt them.
"The Astros and Tucker have had conversations about an extension in the past, league sources tell FanSided, but the price to extend the star outfielder will be expensive. Really expensive. But Tucker is not represented by Boras — he’s represented by Excel — and they have a history of doing extensions if the right offer presents itself, so this could be one to watch this winter," Murray wrote.
Tucker was an All-Star, a Silver Slugger and finished fifth in NL MVP voting last season. If he backs that performance up with another strong season, Houston will have a tough time out-bidding the competition come the winter of 2026, when Tucker is set to become a free agent.
The one benefit the Astros have is time. Tucker isn't a free agent next winter, unlike Altuve and Bregman. However, if both veterans leave, Houston has a choice to make -- do they enter next season with Tucker under contract for one more year? Should they pay Tucker as much as he wants despite the team potentially taking a step back without Altuve and Bregman? Or should Houston embrace another rebuild and trade Tucker for a haul?
My money would be on the latter, in that scenario.