When Josh Jacobs agreeing to sign with the Green Bay Packers was announced on Monday, initial reports of the contract were jaw-dropping.
As capable a running back as Jacobs has been in his career so far, the Packers signed the 26-year-old for $48 million over four years felt questionable at best. In this running back market? After the season he just had?
Don't worry Packers fans, this contract is far less likely to bite Green Bay on the behind down the line than it seemed at first.
Josh Jacobs contract includes convenient outs for the Packers
In reality, Jacobs agreed to a four-year deal that includes only one sure-fire year in Green Bay. The Packers have options for 2025, 2026 and 2027. That's according to Andrew Brandt of Sports Illustrated.
Josh Jacobs:
— Andrew Brandt (@AndrewBrandt) March 11, 2024
Reported deal:
Four years, $48 million.
Real deal:
One year, $14.8 million, and three Packer option years.
Strong deal for one year, and then "we'll see."
Effectively, Jacobs is on a one-year deal worth $14.8 million. He's getting $12.5 million guaranteed. If he does well, the Packers can opt to bring him back. If he doesn't carry his weight, they can cut bait.
Signing Josh Jacobs to a flexible contract is a win for the Packers
After signing Jacobs, the Packers decided to release Aaron Jones, basically swapping out the two backs. Was that the right move?
Obviously, we won't know what Jacobs will be capable of in Green Bay until he gets on the field in a Packers uniform. Still, the math makes sense.
Back in 2021, the Packers signed a 26-year-old Aaron Jones to a four-year, $48 million contract. Three years later, they've parted ways with a 29-year-old Jones to sign a 26-year-old Josh Jacobs to a similar deal in terms of yearly commitment, with the freedom to opt out if necessary. Salary inflation is nowhere to be seen with this one.
The worry with Jacobs is his steep drop-off in efficiency in 2023. He averaged just 3.5 yards per carry in 13 games for the Raiders. A quad injury did him no favors, so the Packers are banking on him returning to All-Pro form when healthy. In 2022, he was electric with 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns in 17 games.
Even if the Packers don't get 2022 Jacobs, the reality is Jones also took a step back in 2023. Injury also contributed to his decline in production, but his age suggests he's far less likely to rebound in 2024.
Betting on the younger running back makes sense.