Champ Week is here and there is little time left for teams on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament to make their case to reach March Madness. Whether it is a questionable NET ranking or a couple of bad losses, bubble teams find themselves near the cut line for a reason and are usually at the whims of the Selection Committee prior to Selection Sunday.
The worst nightmare for a bubble team is a bid thief, a parlance that occurs when a team that isn't projected to make the field of 68 claims an automatic bid by winning their conference tournament. That phenomenon results in shrinking the at-large pool by one as a presumed lock claims that spot, taking the bid from a bubble team in the process.
With all of the upsets in college basketball this season, it won't be shocking if a few bid thieves emerge over the next week (we may already have one depending on how the committee views Indiana State, which entered the day ranked 29th in the NET after falling to Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament's final on Sunday). Here are the top five candidates to steal a bid ahead of Selection Sunday.
Top Potential Bid Thieves Ahead Of March Madness
South Florida Bulls
A rough start to the season put the Bulls in a deep hole as South Florida lost non-conference games to Central Michigan, Maine, Hofstra and UMass, with the first two coming at home. South Florida went on a 23-1 heater after that point to jump into the polls and secure the American's regular season crown, but a defeat at Tulsa over the weekend leaves the Bulls with a NET ranking of 78, just one Quad 1 win and three losses to the bottom two quadrants.
This team has been hot for a while, however, and beat Florida Atlantic by four points in mid-February for their top win of the season. The Owls are the only lock to get a bid coming out of the American, so if they get tripped up by South Florida again a two-bid American will cost someone a spot in the field.
Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Much like the American, the A-10 has one sure-fire lock to make the field in Dayton, which has excellent metrics and a significant portion of the back half of the season in the AP Top 25 poll. The Flyers are the No. 3 seed headed to Brooklyn, however, and there is a realistic possibility that Dayton doesn't even make the A-10 Tournament final on Sunday.
Richmond is the top seed but the bid thief to watch is Loyola Chicago, which won 17 of its final 20 games to snag the No. 2 seed in the A-10 Tournament. That run included a five-point win over the Flyers and a two-point defeat to Richmond, showing that the Ramblers can play with anyone in the conference, making them the biggest bid thief threat in the A-10.
Pittsburgh Panthers
The Panthers have started to pop up towards the next four out section in bracket projections but their metrics don't quite help them feel safe enough to get in the field. A 2-6 record in Quad 1 games along with two Quad 3 losses leave Pittsburgh needing the auto-bid to get through the ACC and into the field, which could happen if they get hot in Washington, D.C.
Landing the No. 4 seed means Pitt likely gets a shot at Wake Forest in the quarterfinals, a win that could propel them to a semifinal showdown with North Carolina. Winning there would likely put the Panthers up against a Duke team they split with during the regular season. With Jeff Capel's team playing its best basketball, a surprise run through D.C. could get the Panthers a bid at the expense of another bubble squad like fellow ACC rival Virginia.
UNLV Runnin' Rebels
Trying to handicap the 2024 Mountain West Tournament is a fool's errand since the league's top teams have taken turns beating each other all season long to put the conference in position to send six teams dancing. The seventh-best team, UNLV, is the bid thief threat here since they have home-court advantage with the tournament being played at the Thomas & Mack Center and earned the No. 4 seed during the regular season.
The Runnin' Rebels have shown an ability to compete with the league's best, posting a 12-6 Mountain West record that included a sweep of New Mexico and home wins over San Diego State and Colorado State. There is every reason to believe UNLV can win three more "home" games and swipe a bid away from a team like the Lobos, who are in the most precarious bubble position of a Mountain West team.
Colorado Buffaloes
The Pac-12 is, in all likelihood, a three-bid league at most during their final season together. Arizona and Washington State are locks while Colorado is floating around the cut line thanks to some shaky results in conference play.
The Buffaloes are hot, however, having ripped off six straight wins to end the regular season and don't have to worry about dealing with Arizona until a potential championship matchup. The Wildcats have looked vulnerable and could get picked off before then, leaving the door wide open for Colorado to upset Washington State in the semifinals and win the Pac-12's auto bid to move officially into the field at the expense of a fellow bubble team.