The All-Star break arrives as a much-needed balm for injury-plagued teams around the NBA. It also provides us with an opportunity to sit back and reflect on the season so far, and the season to come.
That brings us to the 2023-24 rookie class. Last year's NBA Draft was considered one of the best ever — headlined by the indomitable basketball stylings of 7-foot-4 Frenchman Victor Wembanyama, who landed most fortuitously with the San Antonio Spurs. Building on the legacy of great frontcourt players in San Antonio, Wemby is already well on his way to stardom.
In addition to Wembanyama, we have the 2023 holdover in Chet Holmgren, who missed his "real" rookie season with a foot injury. Holmgren was the No. 2 pick a couple years ago, but he was No. 1 on a lot of boards (including yours truly). He has rewarded patience and faith with a special, borderline All-Star level season. It's rare enough to have one all-time great rookie, but two is unheard of. Ben Simmons and Luka Doncic have competition.
The rest of the rookie crop has been a joy, too. There are several future All-Stars and high-level role players in the mix. The Thompson twins are athletic marvels. Cam Whitmore — surprise, surprise — shouldn't have fallen to 20th overall. And yes, Jaime Jaquez is going to win the dunk contest (we can hope).
Let's dive in.
NBA Rookie of the Year rankings at 2024 All-Star break
Honorable mentions: Cam Whitmore, Scoot Henderson, Duop Reath, Toumani Camara, Amen Thompson
9.6 PPG | 2.7 RPG | 1.3 APG | .401 FG% | .381 3P% | .847 FT%
Jordan Hawkins' role has been inconsistent based on who the Pelicans actually have available, but his value on the wing in undeniable. He's a case-and-point example of the value in one elite, translatable skill. Hawkins is a weak link on defense and a relatively one-note offensive player, but his talent as a fly-around shooter opens up a ton of options for New Orleans' offense. He can bend defenses with off-ball movement and drill 3s from any angle. There's a ton of short and long-term value in that skill.
8.6 PPG | 6.5 RPG | 1.9 APG | .485 FG% | .155 3P% | .619 FT%
Ausar Thomspon has tapered off and come back alive in what has been an uneven season both individually and collectively. The Pistons are a hot mess, but Thompson's defensive playmaking (1.0 steals and 0.9 blocks), combined with efficient rim finishing and valuable connective passing, keeps him on the All-Rookie radar.
11.2 PPG | 2.8 RPG | 4.3 APG | .385 FG% | .335 3P% | .821 FT%
Keyonte George has struggled in the efficiency department, but he looks perfectly comfortable as Utah's primary ball-handler (18 starts in 49 games). George is a twitchy self-creator with pull-up range out to the 3-point line. He's capable of major shot-making displays, but his decision-making with the ball remains a work in progress. Utah will gladly exercise patience.
9.8 PPG | 5.8 RPG | 3.8 APG | .465 FG% | .383 3P% | .610 FT%
Brandin Podziemski has been an integral member of the Warriors' supporting cast as a rookie — no small accomplishment considering Steve Kerr's track record when it comes to actually playing young talent. Podz is the poster child for a Golden State role player — a high-feel connector, eager off-ball mover, and dynamic spot-up shooter. He's consistently hitting timely 3s, making the right reads, and defending well enough to stick.
6.8 PPG | 2.2 RPG | 1.3 APG | .504 FG% | .412 3P% | .846 FT%
Cason Wallace has been a mini miracle for the OKC bench unit. He was always billed as a ready-now contributor, but the extent of his readiness is still a mild shock. Wallace is hitting 41.2 percent of his 3s and contributing in a variety of spots for the OKC offense. He's operating on and off the ball, avoiding mistakes (0.5 turnovers) and defending his tail off on the other end. Wallace is a playoff-ready rotation cog for one of the best teams in basketball. He deserves major props, even if the numbers don't leap off the screen.
12.9 PPG | 3.9 RPG | 2.6 APG | .492 FG% | .321 3P% | .815 FT%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. has fallen into a mild shooting slump, but he remains an essential cog in Miami's rotation. The Heat aren't operating at the championship level we expected coming into the season, but at 30-25 and No. 7 in the East, Miami is still a step ahead of last season. We know the Heat can flip a switch better than any other franchise. Jaquez is a major reason for confidence in Miami's outlook, both short and long-term.
It's a historically risky proposition to draft 22-year-olds high in the first round, but Jaquez has translated his collegiate experience beautifully to the next level. All his unique quirks from UCLA have carried over. He's mismatch-hunting in the post, spraying passes from the elbow, and doing his best Jimmy Butler impression in the mid-range.
The 3-point shot was always Jaquez's swing skill. He began the season at a torrid pace but his percentage has been on a steep decline recently (16.7 percent over his last 10 games). His ability to demand attention on the perimeter opens up a ton as a driver and facilitator, so Miami will hope that swings back the other direction.
Defense has been a real plus for Jaquez, too. He's not the most dynamic athlete in space, but he plays with a chip on his shoulder and he understands the schemes in which he operates. Jaquez is always in the right place as a helper and his quick hands have led to a fair amount of turnovers (1.1 steals), so he's well on his way to a central role in Miami's long-term plans.
9.2 PPG | 7.8 RPG | 1.3 APG | .736 FG% | .000 3P% | .559 FT%
The arrival of Daniel Gafford in Dallas might compromise Dereck Lively's place in these rankings moving forward. The rookie came off the bench in Wednesday's win over the Spurs and was limited to 17 minutes. It's worth monitoring how Lively's role develops after the All-Star break.
For now, he should be fairly comfortable in the top-five. He has been the primary starting center (35 starts in 37 games) for a team that is nine games above .500 in the Western Conference. Sure, Lively's success can be attributed to a fruitful partnership with Luka Doncic, but that is Lively's job — to elevate the lineup around Dallas' superstar playmaker. His responsibilities are streamlined, but Lively continues to dominate within the confines of his role.
Lively is a nuclear athlete at 7-foot-1. He has a massive catch radius (7-foot-7 wingspan), which is naturally compatible with Doncic's talent for perfectly-placed passes. Lively is the first proper lob threat of the Doncic era. He can actually defend and stay on the court, that is. Lively has been a major boon for the Mavs' offense, setting forceful screens and forcing defenses to consider his presence rolling to the rim.
On defense, Lively has been an immediate success in the anchor spot. He displays tremendous instincts as a shot-blocker (1.5 blocks), with the mobility to step up in space and operate within different schemes. He's laterally quick, reactive, and explosive on his first and second leap. He will be a special defender down the road. Right now, he's good enough to keep Dallas operating at a postseason level.
16.6 PPG | 4.1 RPG | 2.3 APG | .444 FG% | .386 3P% | .836 FT%
Lost in the Wemby-Chet mania is the sheer awesomeness of Brandon Miller's rookie season in Charlotte. He got off to a bumpy start in the first month, but Miller's role has been steadily increasing ever since. He is averaging 23.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.4 assists on .483/.418/.886 splits over his last 10 games. The Hornets are in full-on tank mode, but injuries to LaMelo Ball and a series of trade deadline moves has only opened the door for Miller to showcase the full extent of his burgeoning skill set.
The Hornets have really leaned into Miller as a ball-handler in recent weeks, allowing him to operate out of pick-and-rolls and look for his own shot outside the flow of the offense. The pull-up jumpers are falling fast and furious. He still has room to grow in the decision-making department (1.7 turnovers), but Miller flashed legitimate passing chops at Alabama. He can deliver skip passes to open shooters or navigate traffic to locate the rim-running big.
He still needs to get better at pressuring the rim and finishing through contact, but a 6-foot-9 wing splashing 3s, creating out of pick-and-rolls, and defending at a reasonably high level is hard to complain about. Miller is older than most freshmen-turned-rookies at 21, but he's quite advanced compared to his peers. Here's a great morsel from J. Kyle Mann at The Ringer.
"Miller’s progress is often overlooked because of how gangbusters Wemby and Chet have been, but he’s quietly on track to becoming one of the most successful rookies ever in terms of perimeter scoring at volume; only 17 other players in the 3-point era have averaged more than 15 points per game and shot over 35 percent from 3 on a minimum of 250 attempts, and we’re only halfway through the season."
Miller will continue to receive star-level reps from Charlotte as the season progresses. Every team is looking for the next great wing, and maybe the Hornets found him in the No. 2 spot. He won't win Rookie of the Year because of the insane talent elsewhere in the race, but Miller has fully delivered on the hype for Charlotte.
16.7 PPG | 7.6 RPG | 2.7 APG | .535 FG% | .393 3P% | .773 FT%
Chet Holmgren would run away with Rookie of the Year in any other season. He has been extremely efficient and impactful on both ends for the West's No. 2 seed. Holmgren has a legitimate All-Star snub case. He has a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year case. And yes, he's still in the mix for this award.
The Oklahoma City Thunder aren't a top-five defense and offense without Holmgren in the middle. He has been a genuine top-shelf rim protector, offering elite instincts and mobility in the five spot — not to mention a 7-foot-6 wingspan that can leave drivers battling a solar eclipse. There is endless schematic versatility baked into Holmgren. He can defend switches, operate as a weak-side roamer, or man the middle. The 21-year-old is averaging 2.6 blocks, which is fourth behind only Walker Kessler, Brook Lopez, and the No. 1 rookie on this list.
OKC's lineup is brimming with elite defenders, but Holmgren is the glue that ties it all together. It's a similar story on the offensive end. Holmgren has been afforded opportunities to face up and self-create on the wing, but he's mainly a source of connective tissue. He makes quick decisions as a short roll passer. He can finish off lobs or space out to the 3-point line. Essentially, Holmgren is the perfect stretch five — proficient from deep, with the ball skills and intelligence necessary to beat closeouts and pick apart errant rotations. He is an elite vertical threat and an elite perimeter threat. That is a rare, extremely valuable combination.
The case for Holmgren is built around team success and his ability to immediately impact winning. The case against him is based on the talent around him. It's the equivalent of penalizing an MVP candidate who has more "help." Holmgren is not OKC's primary engine and he has a lot of support on both ends. Factor in the absurd stretch of production from his primary counterpart in this race, and Holmgren is presently operating at a disadvantage.
20.5 PPG | 10.0 RPG | 3.2 APG | .468 FG% | .320 3P% | .811 FT%
The Spurs are one of the worst teams in the NBA, which is the only real knock on Victor Wembanyama at this point. Holmgren has slightly better efficiency numbers due to the infrastructure around him in OKC, but Wembanyama has operated as the true No. 1 star in San Antonio. His 32.0 percent usage rate is fifth in the NBA. He is getting extensive on-ball reps, creating from the perimeter, in the post, and everywhere in between.
That hasn't always been the best setup — Wemby would benefit tremendously from a proper point guard to spoon-feed easy looks at the rim — but until Trae Young comes through in the offseason, the Spurs will have to make do. Wembanyama is steadily finding his footing as a 3-point shooter (40.4 percent over his last 10 games) and he is, point blank, the NBA's most dominant vertical threat at the rim. Wemby's 8-foot wingspan, unmatched coordination, and feather-soft touch makes it extremely hard to deter him once he has two feet planted in the paint.
Wembanyama's case extends beyond the offense, however. He is a historically great defensive playmaker already. He is the only NBA player ever to register 150+ blocks and 150+ assists in the same season — a feat he accomplished in 48 games. Wembanyama leads the NBA in blocks (3.2) and his hands are active in passing lanes (1.1 steals). With the mobility to guard in space and the instincts to match, Wembanyama is already the league's most intimidating rim protector. Even when he's beat, that 8-foot wingspan goes a long way toward recovering.
There's a strong chance Wembanyama is on DPOY ballots by season's end. The dude just recorded 10 blocks in a single game. Holmgren might be on those very same ballots, but Wembanyama's blanketing presence in the paint in undeniable at this point. Combined with his rapid evolution as an on-ball engine and off-ball finisher, and it's hard to keep him out of the No. 1 spot, even with the Spurs' team-wide struggles.