Welcome to the Armchair Quarterback’s guide to week 4 of the NFL season. For returning readers, thanks once again for coming back. If it’s your first time checking this weekly feature out, I hope you’ll find it to be one of the best game preview/prediction posts around. Each week I look at how the teams in each game match up, how they’ve fared against one another in previous head to head games, and mix in a few of my own observations to help you get a feel for which teams are likely to come out victorious when the teams take the field this week.
Last week was a solid week of predictions, going 11-5 on the week. The winning teams that I missed on were the Giants, Cardinals, Chiefs, Steelers, and Bears. This brings my total record on the season to 33-15. I’m aiming for an even higher winning percentage, but that record is still better than any of the “experts” making picks for ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, or Pro Football Talk. I’m also three for three on my “Survivor Pool Lock of the Week” picks for those of you that are in a survivor knock out pool with your friends or coworkers.
This week is going to be a test of my prediction skills with a ton of games that on paper look like they could easily go either way. In fact, if you’re a person that looks at point spreads, nine of the thirteen games have a point spread of four points or less. Unfortunately, you aren’t reading this post just for me to say “either team could win this one”. So I’ve done some digging into the match ups and I think I’ve got some winners for you again this week.
Let’s get to the games…….
New York Giants at Washington Redskins
Thursday night football kicks off the week with the first of many close match ups. On paper, the Redskins have been better on both offense and defense this season, but the Giants seemed to turn a corner last week against the Texans. The Giants pass defense is what concerns me here. They are allowing 8.5 yards per attempt on defense which is the second worst number in the NFL. They’ve also given up twelve passing plays of over 20 yards in their first three games. Now they’re facing a Redskins offense that has scored 75 points in the last two games which were started by Kirk Cousins. Cousins averaged 338.5 yards/game in those two games and I think the Washington passing attack will keep things rolling at home against the Giants.
Giants 24
Redskins 30
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
The Bears have looked good the past two weeks. The Packers, on the other hand, have looked a little “off” so far this season as they have battled problems on their offensive line. With this game being in Chicago the Bears have to be the pick, right? Well, I don’t think so. First off, OL problems or not, I don’t see a team with Aaron Rodgers at QB going 1-3 to start the season. Second, the teams that have beat GB thus far (Seahawks and Lions) have dominant defensive lines that really abused the Packers up front. While Chicago’s defense has been improved this season I don’t think they have the dominant front that those other teams have. Finally, the Packers have actually won three straight games in Chicago, including the regular season finale last season with the playoffs on the line. Aaron Rodgers has proven he can win in Chicago and I think he’ll squeak out another one this week.
Packers 30
Bears 27
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
This is an interesting match up between two teams that surprised people by starting 2-0 but are now coming off a loss last week. Both teams run the ball well. Both teams have limited QBs that rely on playmakers at WR to make the passing game work. The biggest difference I see is in their run defenses. The Bills are allowing a stingy 83 rushing yards per game and only 3.3 yards per carry while the Texans are giving up 141.7 rushing yards/game and 5.2 yards per carry. That’s why I’m predicting CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson will help Buffalo win the time of possession and ultimately a hard fought road win.
Bills 20
Texans 17
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
This game was the runner up for my “Survivor Pool Lock of the Week”. The Titans are struggling right now and having to go on the road to face Andrew Luck and the Colts isn’t a great way to get things turned around. Luck is 4-0 against the Titans in his first two seasons and while Tennessee has been good against the pass thus far, I just don’t see them walking into Indy and knocking off a Colts team that is focused on getting back to .500 after an 0-2 start.
Titans 20
Colts 31
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens
If you follow the logic that the Ravens manhandled the Steelers who just manhandled the Panthers it would reason that Baltimore is the easy pick here. I am going to take the Ravens, but I suspect the game will be a very close one. The combination of the game being in Baltimore and the Panthers giving up a staggering 6.3 rushing yards per carry on defense make the Ravens the pick here despite all the chaos that’s been going on around them with the Ray Rice saga.
Panthers 20
Ravens 23
Detroit Lions at New York Jets
We’ve always known that the Detroit Lions were capable of scoring points, it’s been their defense that’s usually held them back. It may surprise you to hear it, but the Lions defense has been lights out so far this season. They are number one in the NFL in yards allowed and second in the NFL in points allowed. The Jets are coming off a short week and I just don’t think Geno Smith and the Jets will be able to outscore Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and the rest of the Lions. I’m taking Detroit to win a surprisingly low scoring game.
Lions 17
Jets 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are giving up 31.7 points per game and are only scoring 15 points per game. That doesn’t sound like a team that I would want to pick to go on the road and beat anyone, let alone a Steelers team that looked dominant in a big road win against the Panthers. After several seasons where the Pittsburgh offense consisted of Ben Roethlisberger and ten other guys, Big Ben is finally getting some help in two young up and coming stars in Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. The Bucs offense simply won’t be able to keep pace in this one.
Buccaneers 16
Steelers 30
Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders
So this is how the NFL is trying to sell American football to the Brits? By sending two teams that are averaging a COMBINED 31.6 points per game. The Falcons, Eagles, and Colts are each averaging more points per game then these two are combined. The Raiders have been especially dreadful on offense where they are last in the NFL in yards/game (254.3) and points/game (12.3). Until they prove they can put some more points on the board it’s going to be hard to pick them to beat anyone. The Dolphins have been struggling since their opening week win over the Pats, but I’ll take them to get a win here in a low scoring snooze-fest. I don’t think the English Premier League has anything to worry about.
Dolphins 17
Raiders 13
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (*Survivor Pool Lock of the Week*)
The Chargers have really played great football so far this season. They knocked off the Super Bowl champion Seahawks and their only loss was in a close game at Arizona. The Jaguars are giving up 39.7 points per game and only scoring 14.7. Getting Blake Bortles on the field should help a little, but not enough to overcome a 25 points per game scoring discrepancy. Look for Phillip Rivers and the San Diego passing attack to take advantage of a Jaguars defense that has given up eight TDs to only one interception and a league high 18 passing plays of over 20 yards. This one shouldn’t be close.
Jaguars 17
Chargers 34
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers
There seems to be a general consensus that the 49ers will find a way to pull it together and and win this game to prevent them from slipping to 1-3 to start the season. Here’s the problem with that, the 49ers couldn’t stop a Drew Stanton-led passing attack last week and now they have Chip Kelly’s high flying Eagles offense coming to town. The past two weeks the 49ers have allowed six passing TDs with no interceptions and only one QB sack. That doesn’t sound like a team that’s going to stop the NFL’s number two rated passing attack.
Eagles 27
49ers 24
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings gave me a scare last week when they gave the Saints a run for their money in my Survivor Pool Lock of the Week game. Despite the fact that I think Teddy Bridgewater will actually improve the Minnesota offense, I still don’t think they’ll be good enough to keep pace with Matt Ryan and the Falcons who are currently the number one rated offense in the NFL. I’m anticipating another big day from Julio Jones and for the Falcons to get a road win here over the Vikings.
Falcons 27
Vikings 23
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
This was one of the games that I really went back and forth on. The Saints just haven’t seemed right so far this year as they’ve struggled to repeat their performance from last season. The Cowboys started out rough against the 49ers, but have now won two straight. The Saints destroyed the Cowboys in New Orleans last season and I think defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will know how to get Tony Romo rattled after his time working in Dallas. I’m going to roll with the Saints one more time, but if they let me down again in this one it will officially be time to get off the bandwagon.
Saints 31
Cowboys 27
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
The Monday Night Football match up is an interesting one in the AFC. The Patriots haven’t looked that good this year. They lost in Miami (where KC just won big), blew out a Matt Cassel led Vikings team, and then squeaked out a 16-9 win at home against the Raiders. Now they have to travel to Kansas City to face a Chiefs team that is trying to get to .500 after an 0-2 start. Arrowhead Stadium can be a hard place to play under normal circumstances, but with it being a prime time game and the Chiefs faithful trying to retake the Guinness world record for the loudest outdoor stadium, it could be tough sledding for Tom Brady and the gang.
While KC quarterback Alex Smith is the one accused of checking down too much, it’s interesting to note that Smith is averaging 3.07 “Air Yards” per attempt (Air yards are the passing yards made up by the ball being in the air as opposed to the receivers yards after catch). Tom Brady’s air yards per attempt is just 2.96. Also the Chiefs have double the 20+ yard passing plays that the Patriots have this season (10 to 5). So while Smith gets criticized and Brady gets a pass because of his past accomplishments, the numbers don’t back up the Pats passing attack being better than KC’s. Maybe I’m just being a KC homer, but I’ll take the Chiefs at home in front of an amped up crowd to beat Tom Brady and the Pats on Monday night.
Patriots 20
Chiefs 23
That does it for the week four edition of the Armchair Quarterback’s guide to the NFL. Are there any games you think I got all wrong? Anything else you think I should be taking into account on any of these games? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below. Enjoy this week’s games and thanks for reading.
More from FanSided.com
NFL Power Rankings Week 3: Seahawks, Broncos flip-flop; Cardinals crack top 5
NFL: 5 things we didn’t see coming in Week 3
NBA: 7 players with the most to lose in 2014-15
College Football Player Rankings: Week 4
NHL: 10 stadiums that should host an outdoor game