MLB Awards Watch: Hello, Corey Kluber

We are in the final moments of the 2014 baseball season, and in addition to the various pennant races and wild card pushes, there are individual honors that remain very much up for grabs as we approach the final weekend. Of course, there are always some awards that are virtually wrapped up before September even begins (and that is the case this season), but at the same time and much like the team-based focuses, there are certain spots where two players or more are neck and neck and very much in need of a star-studded finish.

The tendency, at least among the more casual fans, is to overrate what we have seen lately, but in this space, we have attempted to overlook recency bias in favor of actually evaluating the full body of work over an entire season. MLB awards are often won and lost in September, but because of that trend, the more deserving candidates are often overlooked in favor of players who are prone to hot streaks near the end of the season, especially if they are tied to a team-wide surge toward the top of the standings. Without further ado, let’s get to the current picks.

Rookie of the Year National League

1. Jacob deGrom, SP New York Mets – It’s time. deGrom has been running in second place for the majority of the season, but New York’s young right-hander has been consistent enough (and pitched enough innings at this point) to deserve the honor, and he has been incredibly effective. deGrom leads all NL rookie in bWAR while placing second in fWAR, and for the year, he has pitched 140.1 innings with a spotless 2.63 ERA. It has largely been a lost season for the Mets, but with deGrom and Matt Harvey back for 2015, the future is bright.
2. Billy Hamilton, OF Cincinnati Reds – Billy Hamilton just hasn’t hit enough. The Reds outfielder has incredible defensive metrics in center field with 56 stolen bases, but his .292 on-base percentage leaves a lot to be desired, and that is the chief reason he slipped from the top spot. There is a school of thought that he will learn to utilize his speed in an attempt to generate more opportunities on the basepaths, but until then, he has a ceiling.
3. Kolten Wong, 2B St. Louis Cardinals – Kolten Wong is one of a small group of players to produce more than 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases (Wong has 12 HR and 20 SB), and because he has done that over less than a full season, it is all the more impressive. Wong has limitations, as evidenced by a .292 on-base percentage, and because of that, there is a large gap between the second and third spots on this list, but Wong’s upside is high from a power perspective at second base.

American League

1. Jose Abreu, 1B Chicago White Sox – This race has been over for months, and Jose Abreu’s rookie campaign has been something special. At 27 years old, Abreu is a rookie in name only, but since he qualifies, Chicago’s power-hitting first baseman is the clear choice based on 35 home runs, a .576 slugging percentage (1st in AL) and a sparkling 162 wRC+. There is a school of thought surrounding Abreu’s “lucky” batting average (.315 after a .354 BABIP), but even if it was in the .280 range, he would be the runaway choice.
2. Collin McHugh, SP Houston Astros – Collin McHugh has been one of the best 10 pitchers in the American League, regardless of any “rookie” distinction. The Astros have potentially unearthed a legitimate ace in McHugh, and his 2.73 ERA over 154.2 innings is supported by more than a strikeout per inning and “luck” numbers that are certainly within the margin of error. In a normal season (or if he was in the National League), he would be the front-runner, but McHugh will settle for second place.
3. Masahiro Tanaka, SP New York Yankees – It is incredibly encouraging to see Tanaka back on the mound, as he was on his way to a neck-and-neck battle with Abreu before suffering an elbow injury. He had fallen out of the top three during the hiatus, but his season-long numbers (134.2 innings, 2.47 ERA, 9.29 K/9, 1.27 BB/9) are in line with the best rookies in the league, and if we were extract those numbers over a full season, he would be in the midst of the Cy Young race.

Cy Young Award National League

1. Clayton Kershaw, SP Los Angeles Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw leads the Major Leagues (not just the NL) in ERA (1.77), WHIP (0.86), wins (21), strikeout rate (10.85 K/9), fWAR (7.2) and bWAR (8.1). I could certainly wax poetic about his contributions, but that is pretty cut and dry, right?
2. Adam Wainwright, SP St. Louis Cardinals – For the full season, Wainwright and Johnny Cueto (seen below) have identical marks in bWAR, but Wainwright holds a solid lead in the FanGraphs evaluation and every “luck” indicator in the book points to Wainwright’s season as holding a slight edge over Cueto’s. The biggest knock on Wainwright’s campaign has been a lack of strikeouts (just 7.10 per 9 innings), but his control (1.98 BB per 9) has been spot-on, and the veteran right-hander has been dominant as of late, with a 1.38 ERA over five September outings.
3. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds – Cueto is third in the Majors (second in the NL) in ERA at 2.29 for the year, but his FIP stands over a full run higher (3.30) and the consensus is that Cueto has been relatively fortunate, especially when considering his .239 BABIP against. Still, he leads the NL in innings with more than 235 (!), and it is wildly impressive to post a sub-2.30 ERA over that type of workload.

American League

1. Corey Kluber, SP Cleveland Indians – For the first time since the dawn of this column, we have a new favorite for the AL Cy Young Award. Corey Kluber now leads all American League pitchers in both fWAR (7.0) and bWAR (6.9), and on the strength of a 1.88 ERA after the All-Star break, he has closed the gap in ERA with previous leader Felix Hernandez (2.53 for Kluber to 2.34 for Hernandez). Kluber’s strikeout to walk ratio has been incredible this season (5.25-to-1), and that has pushed his success. He is a legitimate superstar.
2. Felix Hernandez, SP Seattle Mariners – Because both pitchers are scheduled to make one additional start this season, “King Felix” is still alive and kicking. However, Hernandez was tattooed to the tune of 8 earned runs on Tuesday, ballooning his ERA to human-esque levels, and while his advanced metrics are lights-out, they are not to the level of Kluber’s at this moment. It isn’t as if Felix has “struggled” down the stretch (2.71 ERA after the All-Star break), but he hasn’t been quite as dominant, and he’ll need a heroic effort on the season’s final day to overtake Kluber.
3. Chris Sale, SP Chicago White Sox – Sale actually leads the American League in ERA by a sizable margin at 2.17, and if he had been able to perform at his current pace over 33 starts, the left-hander would have a claim on the Cy Young award. Sale leads the AL in strikeout rate (10.76 K/9), and without the nagging injury that cost him a handful of outings, he would be garnering a lot more attention in what appears to be a two-man race.

Most Valuable Player National League

1. Clayton Kershaw, SP Los Angeles Dodgers – In order to win an MVP award, a starting pitcher has to be incredible while simultaneously encountering a climate without a super-elite season from a position player. That formula has been executed perfectly by Clayton Kershaw. The left-hander leads the NL in both forms of WAR (7.2 fWAR, 8.1 bWAR), and even when he has only appeared in 27 contests, a 1.77 ERA with standout ratios are enough to vault him over the rest of the competition in the National League.
2. Andrew McCutchen, OF Pittsburgh Pirates – A loss of nearly 20 games due to injury and the lack of defensive excellence are what keep McCutchen from seriously challenging Kershaw in my eyes. On a per at-bat basis, McCutchen has been lights-out at the plate, with 25 home runs, 18 stolen bases and a sparkling .314/.409/.545 slash line that ties him with Mike Trout for MLB’s best wRC+ of 168. Still, he has been a negative player by any defensive measure this season and without the extra counting stats from the lost time, he falls behind Kershaw’s historic performance.
3. Giancarlo Stanton, OF Miami Marlins – Did you know that Giancarlo Stanton has still appeared in more games than Andrew McCutchen? Many wrote off Stanton as even a candidate after his early exit due to injury, but Miami’s slugger still leads the NL in home runs (37) and slugging percentage (.555) while finishing in the top-3 among position players in WAR. It was a fantastic year for Stanton, and barring a major change, he deserves to be on the ballot.

American League

1. Mike Trout, OF Los Angeles Angels – This award has been Mike Trout’s from the beginning, and with only three days in the left season, it appears that he will be a near-unanimous winner. Many pundits are screaming about a “down” year from Trout on the basis of a dip in speed (16 stolen bases) and defensive metrics, but even with his lowest WAR in three seasons (currently 8.0 by both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference), he is superhuman. Trout has also produced his career high in home runs with 35 and RBI with 110, and even if he is closer to being a mere mortal, he is the best baseball player on the planet.
2. Michael Brantley, OF Cleveland Indians – No one is talking about Michael Brantley, but his 2014 performance has been special. Cleveland’s outfielder came from virtually nowhere to post a 20-20 season (20 HR, 23 SB), but more than that, he has a wildly impressive .329/.387/.510 slash line (157 wRC+) that helps to support his case. Brantley will certainly fall short of gaining the favor he deserves based on a relative lack of team success and no “wow” numbers, but he has been very, very good.
3. Corey Kluber, SP Cleveland Indians – Two Cleveland Indians? Two Cleveland Indians! Yes, the Indians are 83-76 and on the outside looking in at a playoff spot, but this isn’t a team award, and the current leader for the AL Cy Young award has a resume that stands up against the competition. Kluber leads all non-Trout players in the AL in fWAR while falling in the top-5 on Baseball-Reference, and his overall profile is impressive enough to land on the ballot. Outside of Trout, there are a ton of “very good” performances in the American League this season, but an objective evaluation supports Kluber’s case for inclusion.

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