A complete breakdown of the five NFL games with playoff implications that you absolutely can’t miss in Week 12.
With six games left for most teams, five for some, we have finally entered the best part of the NFL season.
The games actually feel like they mean something. The division races are coming down to the wire. The playoff picture, although very cloudy and unclear right now, is becoming more clear by the day.
Plus, we’re about to enter the craziest part of the NFL season.
This is calm before the storm, if you will. If you read my NFL Playoff Picture column from Tuesday, you know how close these division races are.
If not, I’ll explain!
Right now, there are 19 teams within two games of the division lead.
With six games to play, these division races are crazy close. It’s going to come down to the wire, but teams can start to make their claim for the division by taking care of business in Week 12, those who have the opportunity to do so at least.
With that, I’ve ranked the five biggest games of Week 12, listed what’s at stake for both teams, and gave a breakdown and prediction of each game.
Trust me, if you care about the NFL playoffs, you don’t want to miss any of these five games.
Let’s get started with Cleveland and Atlanta!
Next: Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons
5. Cleveland Browns (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
Who would have thought a game between the Browns and Falcons in Week 12 would have huge playoff implications?
What’s At Stake:
For the Browns, falling to 6-5 might as well be the end of their season, but there’s a chance they could stay in the hunt. They would just need some help, like a lot of other teams, down the stretch.
Surprisingly, this game means very little to the Falcons if they lose, which is ridiculous considering they’re a 4-6, division-leading team. It’s such garbage, honestly.
Even if the Falcons lose, they still hold the tie-breaker with the Saints and play each Carolina and New Orleans once more this season.
If the Falcons win, they’re still going to have to go through both those teams to seal the division; however, opening up a two-game lead in the division (assuming the Saints lose) would be the equivalent of running a 100-meter race with a 10-second head start.
Breakdown:
Who knows what version of either team you’re going to get?
Are we going to get the Browns who lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars by three scores? Or, are we going to get the Browns who basically shutout the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10?
Are we going to get the Falcons who put up 56 points on the Tampa Buccaneers? Or, are we going to get the Falcons who lost to the Minnesota and the New York Giants in back-to-back weeks while giving up and average of 35.5 PPG?
There’s definitely a Dr. Jekyll-Mr.Hyde situation going on with these two teams.
Prediction:
Atlanta 27 Cleveland 22
I don’t know why I think Atlanta is going to win. This game is a coin flip.
Next: Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-6)
What’s At Stake:
The Ravens need to win this game much more than the Saints.
As I mentioned earlier, New Orleans just needs to keep pace with Atlanta and then beat them head-to-head when they play at the end of the season.
Baltimore, though, is basically a half-game back in the division, but they only have one more division game remaining, and that’s against the Cleveland Browns. Without a chance to beat the Steelers or Bengals, the Ravens need to keep pace. Falling a game or more back could be the fatal blow to the Ravens’ season.
Breakdown:
The Saints’ most productive receiver, rookie Brandin Cooks, is going to be out for the season with a thumb injury. That puts a lot of pressure on Jimmy Graham and the Saints running backs to shoulder the load for the offense, as the receiving corps has been largely disappointing this season for the Saints.
Baltimore has the fifth best-scoring defense in the league, and they only allow 18.1 PPG on average.
The Saints’ defense, on the other hand, might as well be a rotating door compared to the Ravens’ defense. If the Saints can’t move the ball against the Ravens, this is going to be a blowout in favor of Baltimore.
I’m expecting a massive game from Joe Flacco. New Orleans’ pass defense is the ninth-worst in the league, and they’re allowing 25.2 PPG this season. Flacco lit up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earlier this season, who is only slightly worse than the Saints.
New Orleans, however, did play well against the Green Bay Packers and their explosive passing offense, so there’s still hope for the Saints.
Prediction:
New Orleans 34 Baltimore 31
New Orleans plays well at home and the Ravens don’t play that well on the road.
Next: Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots
3. Detroit Lions (7-3) at New England Patriots (8-2)
What’s At Stake:
After beating the Denver Broncos, the New England Patriots should be able to control their own destiny from here on out. With a win over the Lions and a Denver loss, the Patriots would basically lockup home field advantage because they’d have a two-game lead with only five games to play.
The Lions are just trying to keep pace with the Packers in the division before they meet in Week 17. The Packers are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, so it might be difficult to stick with them down the stretch. Even if the Lions don’t win the division, they still have a good chance to win the wild card, as Seattle and San Francisco, the two teams threatening the Lions, play each other twice in the last five weeks of the season.
Breakdown:
The Lions have the best defense in the NFL, basically, across the board, and it all starts with their defensive line. Detroit is tenth in the league in sacks, but they have one of the biggest, quickest defensive lines in the league and should be a huge test for the New England Patriots.
The Patriots have found their offensive stride since losing in Week 4 to the Kansas City Chiefs and look to be the obvious favorites to win the AFC. It’s not really even close right now, honestly.
The Patriots’ defense has played so well lately, but it will be a tall task facing off against two of the best wide receivers in the league, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate.
The Lions laid an egg last week in Arizona. This week, they’ll be eager to get back on track and get the ball to their play-makers to score some points.
The Patriots are going to score, especially with new weapons Jonas Gray and LaGarrette Blount to go along with Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell, but if the Lions can score with them, it’s going to be a game. The Lions will not be intimidated by playing in Foxborough.
Prediction:
Detroit 32 New England 27
I’m ready for the Lions to finally breakout on offense!
Next: Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos
2. Miami Dolphins (6-4) at Denver Broncos (7-3)
What’s At Stake:
For Denver, this game is for a one-game lead over the Kansas City Chiefs, which could be incredibly important with their upcoming matchup in Kansas City in Week 13. The Chiefs opened the door for the Broncos to sneak back into the division lead, after suffering that devastating loss to the Oakland Raiders on Thursday.
If Denver loses, they’ll be tied for first with Kansas City at 7-4. If San Diego wins against the Rams, they will also be tied for the division lead with Denver and Kansas City. Technically, Denver would have the tie-breaker based on division record.
For Miami, this game is another step in locking up the Wildcard berth and would tie them with Kansas City, Denver, Pittsburgh, and possibly Cleveland, Baltimore, and San Diego, depending on how this week goes.
Breakdown:
After losing to the St. Louis Rams 22-7 in Week 11, the Denver Broncos face a much tougher test against an even better opponent without some key players.
Running backs Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman will be out with injuries. Tight end Julius Thomas will be a game-time decision, but likely will not be at full strength even if he does play. Receiver Emmanuel Sanders will play after suffering concussion last week against the Rams.
While Denver has Sanders back, Miami’s defense has been one of the most physical and best overall defenses in the entire league. Miami is only allowing opponents to score 18.0 points per game over the course of the season, and they’re getting after the quarterback with one of the most ruthless defensive lines in the league. The Dolphins have 30.0 sacks on the season, which is the fourth highest total in the league.
If Miami can get their defense going and get pressure on Peyton Manning, this game could be very similar to the Denver-St. Louis game. Denver needs to win the battle upfront for them to have a chance to win the game. If Manning has to run for his life, it’s going to be a long game for the Broncos.
For Miami, they just have to stay the course and hope their defense can slow down Manning.
Last week, the Rams piled up 131 rushing yards on the Broncos and averaged 4.0 yards per carry. Denver’s run defense has been stout the whole season, but they were exposed last week, which allowed St. Louis to control the ball.
If Miami, the sixth-best rushing team in the league, can control the ball through the run game, they’ve got a great chance to win this game. If Ryan Tannehill is forced to make plays with his arm, Denver’s pass rush could be the difference-maker in the game.
Prediction:
Denver 34 Miami 24
Denver has a huge advantage playing at home, even if the weather is less than ideal for Manning.
Next: The NFC West Showdown
Arizona Cardinals (9-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
What’s At Stake:
This is a do-or-die game for the Seahawks, a must-win, if you will. There’s no way Seattle can battle back in the division or in the wildcard to make the playoffs if they lose to the Cardinals in Week 12.
I mean, sure, there’s a mathematical way that the Seahawks could make the playoffs, but either Philadelphia, Detroit, Dallas, Green Bay, and San Francisco would have to drop off completely for it to happen. It would take an epic collapse from one or two of those teams to miss the playoffs, if the Seahawks dropped to 6-5.
For Arizona, the shoe is on the other foot. The Cardinals can lockup the NFC West with a win at Seattle. Again, it’s not a mathematical “lock,” but for all intents and purposes, it would be a lock. Arizona isn’t going to lose the division with a 10-1 record and at least a three-game lead with five games to play. That just wouldn’t happen; sorry, Seahawks and 49ers fans.
Breakdown:
Arizona just beat Detroit 14-6 last weekend, and this weekend could be even uglier offensively.
For Arizona, this game is about controlling the ball and letting their defense make plays for them. Obviously, that isn’t Arizona’s game plan. They’re going to take shots down the field and hope to break a few big plays here and there; however, it would be in the Cardinals’ best interest to play the same game they played last week and grind out the victory.
Seattle’s offense isn’t as talented as Detroit’s, but the Seahawks have one man that could be the difference: Marshawn Lynch.
If Lynch goes “Beast Mode” on the Arizona Cardinals, Arizona will have a hard time winning the game. If Arizona stops the run, then you might as well get the serving tray ready because the Sea-Birds are going to be cooked.
True Beast Mode is hard to stop, though. Just ask the New Orleans Saints:
Prediction:
Seattle 20 Arizona 17
The Seahawks have their backs against the wall, and I think they’ll play like it for the first time all season. Plus, they aren’t going to let the Cardinals beat them in consecutive seasons at CenturyLink in Seattle.
Next: NFL Playoffs: Who's in and Who's out?
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