Seemingly every year, a team comes from nowhere to contend; which sleeper teams have the potential to surprise the MLB world this season?
In Major League Baseball, there is a growing divide between the haves and the have-nots. The Have-nots can contend for a few years at a time if they are able to develop and grow the right prospects. When it’s time for those homegrown stars to test the market, MLB teams have begun taking an NBA-like approach, stripping their roster down to the studs and accepting a few years of losing.
It has become much harder for a real “sleeper” team to emerge in a given year, but one always seems to make a mark. The Cleveland Indians were supposed to be good last season, but it was still a surprise to see them make a run to the World Series. The Chicago Cubs would have qualified as a sleeper team before their run to the NLCS in 2015, and the Kansas City Royals were certainly a sleeper when they came out of nowhere to reach the World Series in 2014.
Quite a few teams stand out this year as having the potential to surprise. These are the 10 MLB teams that stand out the most as potential sleeper picks for 2017.
10. Atlanta Braves
The rebuilding process continues in Atlanta, but the front office went out and supplemented this efforts this offseason by signing veteran starters to eat up the bulk of the innings. The Braves lost 93 games last season, but went 37-35 in the second half, including 16-10 in September. It’s hard to read too much into a hot finish by a young team, but Atlanta could be on the verge of accelerating their rebuilding timeline similar to the way the Houston Astros did when they made the playoffs in 2015.
Bringing in Bartolo Colon, R.A, Dickey, and Jaime Garcia will help make it easier for the Braves to have a respectable season in their first year in a new park. Dickey, especially, should benefit from a return to the National League and an open-air stadium. With Julio Teheran leading the rotation, the Braves should be able to hang close in most ballgames.
On offense, the Braves have been difficult to watch at times since their teardown began. They finished 14th in the NL in runs and slugging last year, and were last with 122 home runs. They did, however, hit a lot of doubles, finishing third in the league. Having Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips will provide a major power boost this year. Dansby Swanson could blossom into an All-Star, and Ender Inciarte is an outstanding defender who has batted close to .300 for his career. Freddie Freeman might not feel like he’s hitting in a Triple-A lineup this season.
Ninety wins and a spot on the playoffs? That might be pushing it for the 2017 Braves, but they should be much closer to .500, and could even hang around the fringes of contention for most of the season.
9. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are in a very similar position to the Braves. Both teams have been rebuilding for a number of years, but the Phillies have been at it a little longer and had more trade chips to auction off. They were able to get outstanding returns for Cole Hamels and Ken Giles. The Braves have built their entire farm system around starting pitching, but the Phillies already have three budding aces in their rotation.
Vince Velasquez, Aaron Nola, and Jerad Eickhoff were great at times last year. The Phillies were careful in handling injuries to Velasquez and Nola. This year’s rotation could be much better with the addition of Clay Buchholz.
Offensively, the Phillies were painful to watch at times last year. They finished 14th in the league in each of the triple-slash categories, and had the worst OPS. Adding Michael Saunders and Howie Kendrick will provide some stability. Odubel Herrera is emerging as a star, and Maikel Franco should benefit from more protection in the lineup. The Phillies are also finally out from under the Ryan Howard contract, and will get to see if Tommy Joseph is for real. He hit 21 home runs in only 315 at-bats last season.
Philadelphia was a .500 team for the first two months of last season. The wheels fell off in June, and they never recovered. There is a lot to like about this young team, and they could become the next team to make the jump from rebuilding to contending.
8. Los Angeles Angels
Any team that has Mike Trout on it has at least an outside shot at contending in a give year. The two-time MVP is just that good. Unfortunately, the Angels have not been able to surround him with the type of talent to contend year in and year out. The massive contracts handed out to Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, and Albert Pujols have not worked out. The Angels are clear of Weaver and Wilson’s contracts, and are almost done paying Hamilton. Pujols is obviously in decline, but when he is able to get on the field, he is still a threat for 30 home runs and 100 RBI.
Because they have had so much money tied up in long-term deals, the Angels have not been able to give Trout the type of supporting cast he needs. Baseball is not a sport where one star can truly carry a team to a championship. There are better pieces in LA for this season, though, and the Angels should have a good offense in 2017. Kole Calhoun is an underrated asset in right field, and the addition of Cameron Maybin will stabilize left field, a position that was a black hole for the team last year.
It will all come down to pitching for the Halos. If Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, and Matt Shoemaker can all bounce back strong after injury-plagued seasons, the rotation has a chance to be good. Betting on three pitchers with a history of health problems to make 30-plus starts is a long shot. The bullpen is also a bit iffy for the Angels. With the AL West set to be one of the toughest divisions in baseball, Trout is likely destined for another season without a trip to the playoffs.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
Oh boy, did the Diamondbacks go for it last winter, signing Zack Greinke to a $206-million contract and trading away Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte for Shelby Miller. With a star-studded lineup led by the best star you’ve never actually seen play live, Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona just needed some pitching to put itself over the top, or so went the reasoning from Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa.
The pitching never came together last season. The Diamondbacks lost 93 games. Greinke battled injuries and ineffectiveness, and Miller was a complete mess. Arizona’s pitchers finished the year with a 5.09 ERA, the worst in the league. Their starters had a 5.19 ERA, which was better than only the Minnesota Twins. The only pitcher the Diamondbacks added over the winter was Taijuan Walker, who was inconsistent with the Seattle Mariners. Trading an All-Star shortstop in Jean Segura who had 20 home runs and 33 steals in 2016 for a pitcher who has an ERA close to 4.50 the last two years (in a pitcher’s park, no less) is less than ideal.
The lineup will have to thump in a big way this season if Arizona is going to contend, and there is no reason to believe they won’t put up runs in bunches. Goldschmidt is a lock for a .300/.400/.500 season with close to 30 home runs and 30 steals. Getting A.J. Pollock and David Peralta back for full seasons will be key. Yasmany Tomas broke out for 31 home runs last year, and could continue to get better. If the Diamondbacks win enough 9-8 games, they could contend this year.
6. Miami Marlins
Doesn’t it kind of feel like the Marlins are a trendy pick each year? The Fish haven’t had a winning season since 2009, but they always feel like a team on the verge. Having a lineup full of young superstars does that.
This season will be different in Miami. The Marlins will be playing with a heavy heart after the tragic death of ace Jose Fernandez. He left a massive hole at the top of the rotation, and an even bigger hole in the clubhouse, where his infectious energy and passion gave the team a special feel every fifth day. Edinson Volquez was signed to help provide stability to a rotation in flux, but he is not an ace. Wei-Yin Chen was signed last year, and struggled in his first season in Miami. He should be able to rebound if healthy. From there, it gets dicey. The Marlins will need continued growth from Adam Conley.
The offense, like that of the Diamondbacks, should put up plenty of runs. The outfield of Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, and Christian Yelich is one of the most exciting young groups in the league. At second base, Dee Gordon will be back after a suspension cost him most of last season. He gave the team a real spark in 2015, and will have to prove he is still the same player in spite of the PED questions that linger.
The NL East is very top-heavy with the Washington Nationals and New York Mets. Toppling either will be a very tough task, but the Marlins are the most likely to do it. There is potential for the rotation to be solid, the offense is dynamic, and the bullpen is steady.
5. New York Yankees
The Yankees are definitely not in an active championship window, but being who they are, the front office can never fully wave the white flag and tear the roster down completely. Last year’s team still managed to win 84 games even after dealing away Andrew Miller, Carlos Beltran, and Aroldis Chapman at the deadline.
Offensively, the Yankees remain strong. Gary Sanchez will be looking to prove he can build on his record-breaking rookie season. No, he won’t homer every 10 at-bats like last season, but Sanchez could hit 30-40 home runs in a division filled with small ballparks. Up the middle, DiDi Gregorious and Starlin Castro are solid veteran bats. Greg Bird and Chris Carter will form a strong platoon at first base, and Matt Holliday should provide consistent production at DH. Brett Gardner, Chase Headley, and Jacoby Ellsbury are still around because they offer very little value on the trade market. Of the three, Gardner may have the most upside at the plate.
Pitching will make or break the Yankees this season. Masahiro Tanaka’s health always seems to be up in the air. CC Sabathia is back for one last ride in the Bronx, and is coming off a respectable season after battling injuries and personal problems for years. The big left-hander went 9-12 last year with a 3.91 ERA, which was his best showing in quite some time. From there, the Yankees will throw a group of untested prospects and Michael Pineda at the wall and see what sticks.
The Yankees have only been to the playoffs once in the past four years, and are trying to rebuild on the fly. They have enough left over from years past to field a very competitive and scrappy team. Playing spoiler in the AL East is more likely, but look for the Yankees to hang around playoff contention all year.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Every year, the numbers and projection models seem to love the Rays. Their pitchers pile up strikeouts, and their offense is respectable. That works well in a vacuum of statistics, but the on-field results over the past three years have not played out that way. Tampa Bay has not made the playoffs since 2013, and has three losing seasons in a row, including a 68-win performance in 2016.
Starting pitching is what the Rays are built on, but the rotation struggled last year. Chris Archer did not look like himself for long stretches of the season, and lost 19 games. Jake Odorizzi was solid, finishing with a 3.69 ERA. As a whole, the staff finished eighth in the AL with a 4.20 ERA. They have to be better for the Rays to have a shot at contending. If Blake Snell and Alex Cobb can hold up over 30 starts, Tampa Bay has a real shot.
On offense, the Rays were very one dimensional last season. They hit 216 home runs, but struck out almost 1,500 times. Tampa Bay finished 14th in team batting average and 15th in on-base percentage, which led to too many solo home runs. Trading away Logan Forsythe strips the lineup of one of its better on-base hitters. Expect plenty of strikeouts and home runs from this lineup, but it may not be good enough to support the pitching over a 162-game schedule.
3. Kansas City Royals
The end is near for the mini-dynasty put together in Kansas City. The Royals are staring down free agencies of their three best hitters, Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas. All-Star closer Wade Davis was already dealt away, and steady starter Edinson Volquez signed with the Marlins.
There are still enough pieces in place for the Royals to convince themselves they have a shot at contending in 2017. Alex Gordon must bounce back from a horrendous season in 2016. The return in the Davis trade, Jorge Soler, needs to have the breakout season that has been in the works for years. New addition Brandon Moss should do a passable job imitating Kendrys Morales and giving the middle of the contact-first lineup some pop.
The Royals will be made or broken by their starting rotation this year. Can Danny Duffy put together a full season of strong pitching? That remains to be seen, but the front office felt good enough about him to make a $65-million offer. Ian Kennedy in the two-hole is a bit of a stretch, and Jason Hammel and Nate Karns may be asked to do more than they are capable of.
Kansas City still has a solid lineup and bullpen. The AL Central is still watered down, and either the Royals or the Detroit Tigers can take advantage of the weakness of the Twins or Chicago White Sox and make a run at the playoffs. If things turn sour, however, there may be some big names on the move out of KC at the deadline.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
For whatever reason, the Pirates committed their entire offseason to making an honest attempt at alienating franchise icon Andrew McCutchen. First, they shopped him aggressively but could not find a package to their liking. After only half-heartedly taking the All-Star off the market, the Pirates decided to move McCutchen out of center field without really running the idea past him. Not an ideal winter for a team that still has plenty of potential to contend in 2017.
Pittsburgh fell off last year and finished 78-83, but they were in the thick of the playoff race for most of the year. McCutchen must have a better year, and showed signs of life in August and September. Along with Starlin Marte and Gregory Polanco, the Pirates have one of the better outfields in baseball. Their infield is filled with solid veterans like David Freese and John Jason. Young first baseman Josh Bell has the potential to be a special player and a source of homegrown power.
The Pirates still have a rotation that can hang with the best the National League has to offer. Gerrit Cole battled injuries last year, but has looked good in spring training. At his best, Cole is close to a top-10 pitcher. If Ivan Nova can pitch as well as he did last year after being acquired, the Pirates will have a solid number-two starter. Ray Searage is a magician, so don’t bet against it. Then, there are the promising young arms of Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow to consider. The Pirates can only hold them back so long over service-time concerns. Both are special pitchers.
Winning in the NL Central is going to be tough, but most of the pieces that made the Pirates a playoff team remain in place. Pittsburgh has just as much of a shot at winning as the St. Louis Cardinals, and one of the two NL Wild Card teams could come out of this division.
1. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are the hottest sleeper pick for 2017, and for good reason. The starting pitching is finally showing signs of being able to handle the rigors of pitching at altitude in Coors Field. On a park-adjusted basis, the Rockies were exactly league-average as a staff last year. That’s big for a team that has never quite been able to develop the right type of arms for their unique situation.
Jon Gray is the one to watch in a young rotation. He went 10-10 last year, and struck out 9.9 per nine. Gray has outstanding stuff, and looks like a budding ace. Tyler Chatwood and Tyler Anderson both managed ERAs below 4.00 last year, which is astounding. The bullpen also got an exciting addition with former All-Star closer Greg Holland getting into the mix. He is coming off Tommy John, but has the type of strikeout stuff that plays well in a place like Coors.
Obviously, the Rockies will put up runs in bunches. Losing Ian Desmond to a broken hand will hurt some, but he should be back by May at the latest. From there, take your pick of Colorado hitters who can single-handedly change a game — Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu.
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The Rockies have a devastating lineup that can hit at home or on the road. If the pitching can take the next step, the Rockies will have their first playoff berth since 2009. Building a team that can win in Coors and on the road is one of the more unique challenges in sports, but the Rockies appear to be headed in the right direction.