With Opening Day less than a week away, where do all 30 MLB teams stand in the season’s first set of power rankings?
Major League Baseball’s 30 teams have been hard at work in Florida and Arizona for the last two months. As the calendar turns to April, the games are about to start counting for something. The initial round of the weekly power rankings will take everything that happened since last season ended and the Chicago Cubs won their first World Series since the Taft Presidency.
The preseason power rankings will account for offseason moves, injuries, and how teams have looked in Spring Training. The beautiful thing about the baseball season is that every team begins the season 0-0 and with an equal chance to make it to the playoffs, regardless of how improbable it seems.
Let’s get to it!
30. San Diego Padres
When A.J. Preller came roaring into town, he was ready to usher in a new era of Padres baseball. The Friars traded for Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Melvin Upton, Justin Upton, and Craig Kimbrel and signed James Shields. Of that group, only Myers is left, and the Padres are starting at another long rebuilding process. Preller’s moves fell completely flat.
The big move of the offseason for San Diego this year was signing veteran pitcher Jered Weaver. Injuries have sapped him of his velocity, and Weaver now tops out in the low-80s. Not that a pitcher has never been effective throwing that slow in the big leagues, but Weaver is 19-24 with a 4.86 ERA over the past two seasons. The rest of the rotation won’t be pretty. Clayton Richard, Jhoulys Chacin, Trevor Cahill, Luis Perdomo, and a host of other underwhelming options will start 162 games.
They say every team has a chance at making the playoffs on Opening Day, but Padres fans would be better off not kidding themselves. Just pour yourself one of San Diego’s famous IPAs and enjoy Petco Park, one of the best the league has to offer. Who needs winning baseball when it’s 80 degrees and perfectly sunny every day of the year?
29. Minnesota Twins
The Twins seemed to be onto something in 2015 when they won 83 games and nearly stole a spot in the playoffs. Many of those wins were achieved using some sort of smoke and mirrors, and the wheels fell off completely last season. Minnesota lost 103 games, and has to answer some difficult questions about the future of their organization.
Building a lineup around a group of young prospects can be incredibly difficult, and the Twins are no exception. Miguel Sano took a step back last year, while Byron Buxton continued struggling to make the leap from tearing up the minor leagues to tearing up the big leagues. Buxton is still one of the best offensive prospects in baseball, but his star has lost a little bit of shine while his career stays stuck in neutral.
The starting rotation is an underwhelming bunch again this year, led by Ervin Santana and Hector Santiago. The Twins don’t have much choice but to cross their fingers and hope for better results out of Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson this year. Top pitching prospect Jose Berrios should finally get his chance, and he can’t do much worse than his 3-7 record last year with an 8.02 ERA. By the end of the season, the Twins should be much higher on this list than 29th, but they still have a lot to prove after last year’s disastrous step in the wrong direction.
28. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds will continue their rebuilding efforts, and are looking up at another long season that will be over for all intents and purposes by the end of April. Unlike some of the other teams in a similar rebuilding state, the Reds got too far past their championship window without auctioning off their few star players. Good luck getting Joey Votto to waive his no-trade clause.
Give the Reds credit for at least one thing — they will be exciting to watch on the basepaths. Billy Hamilton is one of the only players left in the game who is a threat to steal every time he reaches base. Hamilton swiped 58 bags last year in only 119 games. He is also one of the most exciting outfielders to watch. Cincinnati was finally able to convince Brandon Phillips to accept a trade, clearing the way for Jose Peraza at second base. He swiped 21 bases last year in only 72 games. Just get these two on and watch them work their way around the bases.
Cincinnati had one of the worst bullpens in baseball history last year, and it won’t be much better in 2017. Reds relievers had a 5.09 ERA last year and allowed 103 home runs in 583 innings. That works out to 1.6 per nine. Yikes!
27. Chicago White Sox
Unlike the Reds, the White Sox pulled the plug on their team and decided to rebuild before it was too late. The Pale Hose got an outstanding return for Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, and have a few other big trade chips to move at some point this season. Their top piece that could bring back a handful of elite prospects is Jose Quintana.
The White Sox are going through a very aggressive teardown — all the way to the studs — but it will eventually pay off in a big way for them. Yoan Moncada projects as a multi-time All-Star, especially if his power stroke continues developing. Michael Kopech is one of the most intriguing low-level arms in the minor leagues. Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez are both close to being ready for the big leagues. If all four of those players come of age around the same time, the White Sox will not be rebuilding for long.
Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Dave Robertson, Jose Abreu, and Quintana can all be moved by Rick Hahn at some point this season. Rebuilds can be tough for fans to stomach, but the White Sox are doing what has to be done. They missed their window, but the future looks very bright.
26. Oakland A’s
After a few years in an upswing, the low-budget A’s are back in another cycle of acquiring and developing prospects. They have lost 187 games over the past two years, and have stripped off most of their biggest assets. Outside of Khris Davis, there are very few identifiable stars in the lineup.
One strength for this edition of the A’s is their bullpen. Billy Beane has built a respectable bullpen, which might not seem important for a rebuilding team, but it makes sense when you consider the value of relievers on the trade market each July. Ryan Madson, Santiago Casilla, Sean Doolittle, and Ryan Dull could eventually be flipped for more prospects.
The rotation, long what fueled Oakland’s successful teams, is in flux. Sonny Gray is continuing to struggle with injuries. He would have offered Beane a very valuable trade chip, but his value is now bottoming out. Top prospects Jharel Cotton and Sean Manaea could be the next wave of great Oakland starters. They both flashed dominance at times in their rookie seasons last year. If Cotton, Manaea, and the bullpen pitch well and get a comeback season from Gray, the A’s could surprise and beat the preseason projections. It’s hard to see them cracking 81 wins, however, in a difficult division.
25. Milwaukee Brewers
There is one thing, and one thing only that should be on the minds of the men running the Brewers this season — finding a way to trade Ryan Braun. If he cannot be moved by the middle of May, Braun’s limited no-trade clause becomes a full no-trade protection as he reaches 10-and-5 status. He has a very movable contract, but the Brewers have not been able to find a taker.
PED controversy aside, Braun has remained a very productive hitter and a very good defensive left fielder. He batted .305/.365/.538 last year with 30 home runs. Since the steroid suspension, his slugging percentage has improved each year, up from .453 in 2013. Even at the age of 33, Braun remains on of the top-10 left fielders in baseball. He is owed only $76 million over the next four years. His age may scare some teams away, but for the production, his salary is a bargain.
Braun notwithstanding, there are a few interesting players to watch on this rebuilding team. Eric Thames is back from putting on an absolute power display in Korea. Can he handle big-league fastballs and curveballs after the time away? Orlando Arcia is a slick shortstop prospect to watch. Milwaukee’s most exciting pitching prospect, Josh Hader, could make his debut later this season. He posted an ERA of 0.95 in 11 starts at the Double-A level last season, but struggled after being promoted to Triple-A.
24. Atlanta Braves
The Braves get set to move into their shiny new stadium this year in a less-than-ideal position. Typically, management likes to shift into a new park with a good team in place so that fans actually turn out to fill the new park. That may or may not be the line of thinking behind the Braves adding R.A. Dickey, Bartolo Colon, Brandon Phillips, and Jaime Garcia over the offseason, but the team should be improved this year.
It makes some sense for the Braves to sign aging pitchers to short-term deals. Someone has to eat the innings while the young prospects mature and develop. If you’re moving into a new stadium, might as well not be totally awful by giving the innings to Quad-A roster filler. Colon, Dickey, and Garcia are also veteran leaders who will help bring the young prospects along. The Braves are building their entire farm system around young pitchers, and the results have been underwhelming so far.
Offensively, the Braves were respectable down the stretch last year. Matt Kemp appears to enjoy playing in Atlanta (for now), and Freddie Freeman is as solid as ever. Dansby Swanson is a legitimate future All-Star and stealing him, let alone getting Ender Inciarte as well, from the Diamondbacks for Shelby Miller is one of the biggest fleecings in recent MLB history.
23. Philadelphia Phillies
There isn’t much separating the Braves and the Phillies. They are both at similar spots in their rebuild, with the Phillies a little further along by virtue of the fact that they have already established their rotation for the future. Vince Velasquez, Jerad Eickhoff, and Aaron Nola all look like the real deal. Atlanta is still waiting for the core of their rotation to materialize.
The Phillies have good pitching in place, but their lineup lags behind. Odubel Herrera took a big step forward last year, and is looking like an outstanding Rule 5 find by the front office. If Maikel Franco can take a similar step forward this year, the Phillies will have two solid bats to build their team around. Most of the other positions are just being filled by placeholders. Shortstop J.P. Crawford cannot be delayed much longer.
Philadelphia brought in some quality veterans this offseason to help lead the way. Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders will help take some of the pressure off Franco. Ryan Howard’s albatross contract is gone, and the lineup has lost a black hole of strikeouts. Overall, the Phillies are in good shape heading into the final year or two of their rebuild. By the time Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Mike Trout are hitting the open market, the Phillies will have a solid group in place and plenty of money to spend. They won’t be down for much longer.
22. Arizona Diamondbacks
It’s safe to say that the first year of the Zack Greinke/Shelby Miller Era in Arizona could have gone much better. Greinke signed the most expensive contract in baseball history on an annual basis, and proceeded to struggle with injuries. Miller was an absolute disaster from April on, and spent most of the year in the minor leagues. How much better is it going in Year Two, you ask?
Well, Greinke is out in the Cactus League giving up 465-foot home runs to opposing pitchers. So, not good. Not good at all. Miller’s ERA is close to 7.00 in Spring Training.
The Diamondbacks have the lineup to score five or six runs a night, but the pitching just doesn’t appear capable of making those runs stand up. Paul Goldschmidt gets his running mate, A.J. Pollock back after an injury kept him out most of 2016.
Yasmany Tomas enjoyed a breakout season last year. David Peralta battled injuries most of last year, but has the potential to be a dangerous bat. Maybe Greinke and Miller figure it out and rebound in 2017, but the early indications out of camp are making that look unlikely. It’s a shame, because the Diamondbacks really do have some exciting hitters who deserve more national attention.
21. Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout can do just about everything on a baseball diamond. He can hit for power and average, steal bases, and play highlight-reel defense in the outfield. Unfortunately, the one thing he cannot do a lick of is pitch. No matter how historically good Trout has been, the Angels have simply not been able to give him a pitching staff capable of holding up over the course of 162 games.
Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker have the potential to help change that this year. The Angels have finally cleared Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson off the books and can regroup on the mound. The results will probably still leave something to be desired, and in a difficult division, that will leave the Angels out of the playoffs again.
Offensively, the Angels should be more entertaining to watch this season. They upgraded in left field by adding Cameron Maybin, which will erase the black hole that existed in the corner last season. Next to Trout, Kole Calhoun is one of the more underrated players in baseball. Get another decent year out of Albert Pujols before his decline really begins, and the Angels might be in business. In all likelihood, the strength of the AL West will overwhelm a mediocre pitching staff, and the Trouts will miss the playoffs yet again. Sad!
20. Miami Marlins
After the tragic loss of Jose Fernandez, the Marlins will attempt to move forward without their ace. It has seemed like the Marlins have been “a year away” for the past three years, and taking that next step becomes more difficult without Fernandez. Edinson Volquez is a nice addition to the rotation, but hardly a replacement for what they lost.
The reason so many have been bullish on the Marlins is their collection of budding superstars on offense. Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, and Marcell Ozuna make up a very good outfield. Stanton must stay healthy for an entire season and cut down on the strikeouts. The Marlins also have a very good infield, led by Dee Gordon and Martin Prado.
Miami’s rotation will not be able to keep up with the offense. They have five starters who project as a number three, at best. Adam Conley has the most upside in this group. The Marlins are looking at another year out of the playoffs, but could top .500. Hopefully that’s enough to entice a buyer to take the team off Jeffrey Loria’s hands.
19. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have been the opposite of the Orioles over the past few seasons — failing to live up to the preseason love of the projection models. PECOTA and the like have loved the Rays because of their strong starting pitching, but the results on the field have not matched up with the statistics. Chris Archer, for example, lost 19 games last season. His peripheral numbers did not paint such an ugly picture, and he should end 2017 with a much better record.
In many ways, the Rays are a “lite” version of the Orioles. Their offense has become very one dimensional and focused on the home run. There are two known quantities in the Tampa lineup — Evan Longoria and Kevin Kiermaier — which will be hurt by the loss of Logan Forsythe. The Rays will have to hope that Wilson Ramos can come back strong from his knee injury.
The formula that led the Rays to success under Andrew Friedman and Joe Maddon has not worked since they left. Tampa Bay’s rotation has not panned out, with injuries affecting Alex Cobb and Matt Moore. The bullpen has been bad, and the defense has taken a hit with the focus on adding cheap power. There’s only so much a team like the Rays can do when they are so strapped for cash.
18. New York Yankees
The Yankees are in the middle of a rare rebuild. With their iconic franchise status, the Yanks can’t quite pull off or justify a complete teardown of the roster. These Yankees are a mix of young and old, but are just outside of contending range.
Young hitters Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, and Aaron Judge are the future of the team. Shortstop Gleyber Torres had an excellent spring, and is not far off from his big-league debut. For the sake of service time, the Yankees should delay his arrival and keep him in the minor leagues all season. Sanchez is coming off an epic rookie season, and will have to prove that he can handle MLB pitching after it has had time to scout out and attack all of his weaknesses. Judge has shown a better ability to make contact in Spring Training, but it remains to be seen how his swing plays over a full season.
New York’s starting rotation will hold them back this season. The young offense is capable of stringing together a few winning streaks here and there when they get hot, but their slumps will be just as deep as they deal with the ups and downs of the big leagues. The pitching will not be able to do enough to eke out wins when the offense does not score. This could be the year the Yankees long streak of .500 seasons comes to an end.
17. Kansas City Royals
For a mid-market team like the Royals, winning the World Series in 2015 was the culmination of years of hard work drafting, developing, and growing the farm system. It took a ton of luck, and everything had to break right for this roster to go to two World Series in a row. When it ends, however, it can end quickly, and the Royals are staring down the barrel of a roster Armageddon.
Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain will all be free agents at the end of the year, and the Royals do not stand a very good chance to re-sign any of them. They ponied up last year for Alex Gordon and Ian Kennedy, and should be pushing the limits of what ownership is able to spend on payroll. There’s also the fact to consider that Hosmer, Moustakas, and Cain may have already peaked. All three profile as the type of player who excels in the Kansas City environment, but may be overvalued on the open market.
The Royals have already begun stripping down their roster. They traded Wade Davis to the Cubs for Jorge Soler, who is already dealing with an injury before Opening Day. That’s been the story with Soler so far in his MLB career. Starting pitching has never been a strength of these Royals, and it will not be again this year. The bullpen might be a shade weaker and unable to make up for the deficiencies in the rotation. If the Royals find themselves out of playoff contention in July, there will be some big trade rumors swirling around Kauffman Stadium.
16. Colorado Rockies
Hot sleeper pick alert! Hot sleeper pick alert! That’s right, folks, the Rockies are everyone’s trendy sleeper pick for 2017, and why the heck not? After years of allowing six runs per game, this starting rotation is starting to gel and materialize into something that might stand a chance at shutting down opposing offenses in Coors Field.
Jon Gray is the big name to keep an eye on here. He has big-time ace potential. Gray struck out close to 10 per nine last season, including a 16-strikeout, complete-game shutout in September (granted, it was against the Padres, so don’t go awarding him the Cy Young just yet). He has the type of power arsenal to miss enough bats to succeed in Coors.
As always, the Rockies have a loaded lineup, led by MVP candidate Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, and eventually Ian Desmond. The team’s new first baseman broke his hand in Spring Training, and will be out until May at the earliest. This lineup could score over 900 runs, and we would still have no idea if the pitching could keep enough runs off the board to win 90 games (ok, 900 runs is probably enough). The Rockies are a trendy pick now, but let’s wait until their pitching staff has taken a few passes through the rotation before christening them as contenders.
15. Pittsburgh Pirates
By all accounts, the Pirates have one of the smartest, shrewdest front offices in the league. It’s not easy to consistently build a winner in small-market Pittsburgh where the TV deal just does not measure up to the bigger cities around the league, but the Pirates have overcome the odds. Because the front office is held in such high regard, it’s hard to understand why they made it their stated goal over the offseason to anger franchise icon Andrew McCutchen. First, he was left in trade limbo for weeks at a time. Finally, he was pulled off the block, but unceremoniously moved out of center field without much input.
McCutchen is such a pro that he will not allow the off-field distractions to prevent him from putting up strong numbers as he looks to rebound from a disastrous 2016 season. Moving to a corner will take some pressure off him defensively, and an entire offseason to rest his body should do McCutchen wonders. His skills cannot possibly have eroded so quickly. Expect an All-Star season from the former NL MVP.
The Pirates have a difficult task contending in the top-heavy NL Central, but they have just as much chance as the Cardinals to sneak into the Wild Card. Gerrit Cole is one of the best in the league when healthy. Pitching wizard Ray Searage seems to have worked his magic on Ivan Nova, and Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow just ooze ace potential. If the rotation can stay healthy, the Pirates are a playoff team.
14. Seattle Mariners
Jerry Dipoto is coming off another ADHD offseason where he made no fewer than 95 trades (ok, maybe that’s a slight exaggeration) in an effort to remake the Mariners into a team that can win with speed and defense. The biggest piece acquired this year was shortstop Jean Segura. The former All-Star led the National League last year with 203 hits. He also hit 20 home runs and stole over 30 bases. The Mariners will have a very dangerous infield that can pick it and hit it with the best teams in the league.
Dipoto was also able to grab two starting pitchers who should benefit from a move to spacious Safeco Field. Drew Smyly and Yovani Gallardo are the new names in the Seattle rotation, and both are coming off disappointing seasons. Smyly and Gallardo both rely on fly-ball outs more than the average pitcher, but will see more of those die in outfielders’ gloves than land in the bleachers in Seattle.
There’s a lot to love about the Mariners, including almost every hitter in their lineup. It’s still very hard to project them ahead of the Rangers and Astros because there is so much uncertainty in their rotation. Felix Hernandez, the unquestioned ace of the staff, did not look like himself last season, and all the innings he has piled up over the years could be taking their toll. James Paxton has a ton of potential, but has not been able to stay healthy. All five starters in the projected rotation have significant downside risk, and the end result will be somewhere in the middle of great and truly awful.
13. Baltimore Orioles
By now, there’s a pretty formulaic approach to previewing the Orioles upcoming season. You know it makes no sense. Their starting pitching is bad, their hitters never walk, swing for the fences, and strike out frequently. They do nothing on the basepaths to manufacture runs. And still, here we are, looking at a team that has won the most games in the AL since 2012 and has been to the playoffs three times in five seasons.
More of the same will be coming for the O’s in 2017. Their biggest move of the offseason was bringing back home-run king Mark Trumbo. He hit 47 Trumbombs last year, and has perfected an uppercut swing that produces plenty of loft when the ball is struck right. When he’s off, however, strikeouts and lazy fly balls will pile up. The Orioles are more than okay with that. Chris Davis will have to be better this year, which is at least slightly probable. He was dealing with an injured hand for most of last season.
There’s no point denying the fact that the starting rotation is only 40-60 percent complete. Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy are going to have to pitch like the high draft picks they were for the Orioles to have a chance and Chris Tillman’s bum shoulder cannot keep him out too long. The elite bullpen will cover for the rest of the rotation as long as they can hold it together for five innings. if the rotation cannot be at least league-average, the Orioles could drop down these rankings like a rock.
12. Texas Rangers
The Rangers won an absurd amount of one-run games last year. Some would even say it was an unsustainable amount, but the Rangers came by their seemingly fluky success honestly. Texas has a spotty rotation, but one of the best young lineups in the game and a bullpen competent enough to keep it close if the starter bombs out in the fifth inning. Look for more of the same this season.
Instead of spending big on a player like Edwin Encarnacion, the Rangers elected to add several potentially impactful pieces. They re-signed Carlos Gomez, who was a revelation in the outfield after fizzling in Houston. Texas also signed starter Andrew Cashner, Mike Napoli, and Tyson Ross. Unfortunately for Texas, Cashner will open the season on the DL with a biceps injury. Ross is still working his way back from thoracic outlet surgery. The rotation will be led by Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels again, with the final three spots held together with scotch tape and a prayer.
The Rangers have another core of young Latin superstars ready to take the league by storm. Roughned Odor has already loudly announced his presence in the league (in more ways than one). Elvis Andrus is an established star at shortstop, and Jurickson Profar and Nomar Mazara could be next. The lineup is exciting from top to bottom, and will mask most deficiencies in the starting rotation. The only hangup with the Rangers is that they may struggle to replicate last year’s 15-4 record against the Astros and their one-run success.
11. St. Louis Cardinals
For some shocking reason, the preseason projection models do not love the Cardinals. Baseball Prospectus and their PECOTA model peg the Cards for only 77 wins this season. There are questions aplenty in the St. Louis starting rotation, but not so many that a slide to a losing record seems likely.
St. Louis addressed a major need this offseason by plucking Dexter Fowler away from the Cubs. Not exactly a Benedict Arnold move, Fowler did not figure into the long-term plans in Chicago with so many young players knocking on the door. He will slide into the leadoff spot for manager Mike Matheny and give the Cardinals the type of table setter they lacked in 2016.
There is no denying the uncertainty in the rotation for the Cardinals. Top prospect Alex Reyes is out for the season. Adam Wainwright did not look like himself last year, and has dealt with serious injuries off and on throughout his career. He could be aging into a number-three starter before our eyes. Michael Wacha has not been able to put together a consistent run of healthy seasons, and had a 5.09 ERA in 138 innings last season. Lance Lynn is coming back from Tommy John. What was always considered a strength for the Cardinals — their rotation — is a liability this season. This could go either way, and if it goes the wrong way, the Cardinals will be out of the playoffs again.
10. Detroit Tigers
The Tigers will be playing this season with heavy hearts after the offseason passing of iconic Detroit sports figure and owner, Mike Ilitch. The legendary owner meant so much to the city and the Tigers franchise. His stated desire to win a World Series before his death went unfulfilled, but the pieces are in place for the team to honor him with a title run this year.
Offensively, the Tigers will once again roll out one of the more dangerous lineups in the American League. Miguel Cabrera is always a threat to win a batting title and MVP, even as he ages into his thirties. Ian Kinsler is a sparkplug at the top of the order, and Victor Martinez remains a steady and productive DH. J.D. Martinez is already dealing with injuries, and the Tigers cannot afford to be without him for long stretches like they were last season. Justin Upton is streaky, but can carry a team when hot.
The biggest problem for this team is their starting rotation. Justin Verlander got his groove back last season, and can be counted on to lead a staff. Promising young starters Michael Fulmer and Daniel Norris have the ability to pitch for any contending team in the league, but from there the dropoff is precipitous. The first year in Detroit was a disaster for Jordan Zimmermann as he battled neck injuries, and he has not looked good in Spring Training. In most divisions, three viable starters would not be enough to make a playoff run, but the AL Central is very watered down. That should allow the Tigers to eke out a playoff berth.
9. New York Mets
Placing the Mets inside the league’s top 10 to start the year is an aggressive gamble on their pitchers’ abilities to stay healthy. Only Noah Syndergaard made it to the finish line last year, and Steven Matz is already battling elbow discomfort. That doesn’t bode well for the regular season, and Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom are coming back from surgery again.
Offensively, the Mets look about the same as they did last year. Re-signing Yoenis Cespedes was the most obvious move for all parties involved. Cespedes loves it in New York, and the Mets are not a functioning MLB offense without his presence. There’s still the problem of having a roster loaded with corner outfielders and no center fielders, but Terry Collins will find a way to make it work. Trading Jay Bruce over the winter appeared to be in the cards, but he is back and must perform better than he did after being acquired at the deadline last year.
The Mets hopes hinge on their starting rotation. The offense is mediocre with the exception of Cespedes, and can be one dimensional at times. If any of the young aces miss extended periods of time, the Mets may have a hard time making the playoffs for a third straight year. The rest of the National League is that strong.
8. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays will look a little different in 2017. Edwin Encarnacion, a mainstay in the lineup for the past eight years is gone. Replacing his annual 30-homer, 100-RBI season will be next to impossible for Toronto. More than anything, the Jays will miss the swagger Encarnacion provides. Opposing pitchers just don’t have reason to fear hitters like Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, and Steve Pearce.
While the offense will likely take another step back from its epic levels of 2015, the pitching staff will only continue to get better. Aaron Sanchez is ready to take on the league for an uninterrupted full season. He throws a devastating sinker and curveball and won the ERA title in 2016 despite being shut down in the second half. Backing up Sanchez will be the dependable J.A. Happ, deceptive Marco Estrada, and emerging Marcus Stroman. The fifth spot in the rotation is still up in the air, but Francisco Liriano looked great after coming over from the Pirates last year.
All eyes will be on Jose Bautista to see how he responds to the perceived slights of his free agency this offseason. No one else stepped up to sign him, and Bautista was forced to come back to the Jays with his tail between his legs. An angry Joey Bats might not be fun for the rest of the league to deal with, but he has to stay on the field.
7. San Francisco Giants
It was a fairly quiet offseason for the Giants ahead of the 2017 season. Their only big splurge in free agency was All-Star closer Mark Melancon. Dropping $62 million on a reliever, however, is no small move. San Francisco’s bullpen was atrocious down the stretch last season, and the front office was able to add a closer who has come close to matching Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen for over $20 million less over the life of his contract.
Around the diamond, the Giants are unchanged from last year’s squad that won the NL Wild Card Game and then pushed the Cubs in the NLDS. They have built a very solid team at every position in the field, and have a very good rotation behind Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto. Bumgarner remains the best postseason pitcher of his generation, and Cueto proved last year that his issues during his brief stint with the Royals were only temporary. If the Giants are able to unlock the immense potential still in Matt Moore and Jeff Samardzija, they could have one of the best rotations in the National League.
Health will be a big issue again for the Giants. Hunter Pence must stay on the field, and should consider reining in his helter-skelter style of play. He’s not helping anyone by spending months on the DL after crashing into a wall. San Francisco could have elected to target an upgrade for left field, but stood pat for now. Their farm system was stripped down at the trade deadline last year, and for better or worse, their Opening Day 25-man roster might be what they have to work with all year.
6. Houston Astros
The Astros pushed all their chips to the middle of the table this winter, adding Josh Reddick, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran. Years of rebuilding left the front office with a giant pile of cash, and they put their extra reserves to good use. The offense, which was plagued by inconsistent contact at several positions last year, has the potential to rival Boston’s for best in the league. Picking up three quality pieces instead of spending all of their available cash on a bigger name like Edwin Encarnacion allowed the Astros to fill multiple holes in their lineup.
Houston did not address the questions in their starting rotation. Charlie Morton is a nice name to have as a depth piece, but should not be counted on to contribute big innings for a contending team. Dallas Keuchel has looked healthy in Spring Training, but has something to prove after a down year in 2016. Lance McCullers is the big breakout name to watch in the rotation. He could be better than Keuchel.
The Astros have the prospects in place to make a trade for Jose Quintana if the need arises. It will be hard for them, however, to keep Alex Bregman. The White Sox were able to pry Yoan Moncada away from the Red Sox for Chris Sale, and they might not settle for much less when they auction off Quintana. Houston can make the playoffs without trading for another ace, but they might have to bite the bullet and deal prospects if they want to challenge for the World Series.
5. Boston Red Sox
With the continued uncertainty surrounding David Price’s health, the Red Sox drop a few spots in the rankings. If Price is back in early May, Boston should be able to get by, but any longer, and things get dicey. Last year’s trade pickup, Drew Pomeranz, has looked awful in Spring Training. The rotation has been a problem at times off and on for the Red Sox over the past five seasons, and trading for Chris Sale won’t solve injury problems.
If the rotation does have its bumps in the road, the offense is more than capable of carrying the load and helping win more than a few 9-8 games. Even without David Ortiz, the Red Sox have one of the best lineups in baseball. Mookie Betts will get his chance to prove he can carry a lineup without Big Papi. He will have plenty of help with a full season of Andrew Benintendi on tap. On another positive note, Pablo Sandoval looks completely rejuvenated. Kung Fu Panda has been tearing the cover off the ball in the Grapefruit League. The Red Sox bet big on him by trading Travis Shaw, and it appears to be working out for now.
Assuming Price gets healthy in time to pitch the entire second half without restrictions, the Red Sox will be fine. Their division is a difficult one to run away with, and they were not able to do that until September last year. The Red Sox are the class of the AL East, but it will stay bunched up while they sort through their pitching injuries.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
Any team that has Clayton Kershaw on it is essentially a lock to win 90 games. In 2016, the ace left-hander was forced onto the disabled list for an extended period of time by a back injury. He only made 21 starts, but went 12-4 with a 1.69 ERA and 172 strikeouts against 11 walks. Eleven.
With Kershaw on the shelf for a long stretch, the Dodgers were able to fall back on all of the pitching depth they have accumulated over the years. Kenta Maeda was very good as a rookie. Rich Hill was acquired at the deadline, and pitched well when he was healthy. Young phenom Julio Urias could finally be turned loose on the league this season.
Having an overabundance of pitching depth is great for the Dodgers, but they would probably love to shed a few overpriced outfielders. Yasiel Puig will get another chance to prove he can live up to his immense potential, but there are options to replace him if he falters again. Trading for Logan Forsythe gives the Dodgers a big upgrade at second base. He is a very underrated player. Corey Seager could very well win the MVP in his sophomore season, matching Kris Bryant, who won the MVP a year removed from winning Rookie of the Year.
3. Washington Nationals
It has been over a decade since the Nationals made their move to Washington from Montreal, and the franchise is still waiting for its initial playoff series victory. The Nats came close, but were ultimately turned down in the NLDS by the Dodgers. This is a team that has been built to contend for the World Series every year, but the results have not yet come. That could change this year.
The biggest move the Nationals made this offseason was trading for center fielder Adam Eaton. Yes, they overpaid for a very good, but not elite player. The future value of Giolito and Lopez likely outweighs the immediate contributions by Eaton, but he fills a need at a lower price than a free agent like Dexter Fowler.
Adding Eaton will give the Nationals a very dynamic presence at the top of the order and allow Trea Turner to make the move back to shortstop, his natural position. Eaton and Turner will terrorize pitchers and catchers in the National League. Bryce Harper will have a much better year than last year. That’s a dangerous thought, especially if Daniel Murphy hits .340 again. The rotation is stacked, but Stephen Strasburg will have to stay healthy. The bullpen also has potential to be very good if Dusty Baker makes the right choice when picking his new closer.
2. Cleveland Indians
The Indians gave the Cubs all they could handle in Game 7 of the World Series last year, and perhaps they should have found a way to close out the Cubbies in Game 5 or Game 6. By the end of the World Series, the Tribe was running on fumes after its rotation was decimated by injuries. Corey Kluber came up just short while attempting his best Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling impression from the 2001 Fall Classic.
Instead of resting on their laurels over the offseason, the Indians were aggressive in free agency. Their biggest and most impactful purchase was Edwin Encarnacion, one of the most consistent RBI machines in the AL for the better part of a decade. Encarnacion replaces Mike Napoli, a veteran slugger who ran out of gas in the second half last year. Cleveland also added left-hander Boone Logan to its already elite bullpen.
With a return to health for Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, and Michael Brantley, the Indians have the team to run away with the AL Central. Shortstop Francisco Lindor will take another step towards becoming one of the top players at his position in all of baseball. The bullpen will be deadly once again, and it will be interesting to see how Terry Francona manages Andrew Miller and Cody Allen in the ninth inning.
1. Chicago Cubs
Give Theo Epstein five years, total control of identifying and drafting players, and a relatively unlimited budget, and it’s easy to see why the Cubs are positioned so well to repeat as World Series champions. On paper, the North Siders enter 2017 as the best team with no easily identifiable holes on their roster. For crying out loud, the Cubs will replace Dexter Fowler and Aroldis Chapman with Kyle Schwarber and Wade Davis.
Only injuries and indifference can hold the Cubs back in 2017. The lineup has a potential All-Star at every position (yes, even Jason Heyward). The starting rotation is the best in baseball, and the bullpen is still dependable. Manager Joe Maddon will find the right buttons to push to keep this loaded 25-man roster motivated and focused on the task at hand.
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Epstein will have room to make moves at the deadline if need be. The farm system is still loaded with top prospects who have not yet made their big-league debuts. Ian Happ is one prospect who could help fetch an elite reliever or depth for the rotation. Until they show weakness, the Cubs are the hands-down favorites for 2017.