With the 2017 season approaching rapidly, it’s time to look at the top 10 storylines in MLB this year.
Major League Baseball is perhaps in the best position it has been in years. There are young stars galore on the most prominent teams in the league, the Chicago Cubs are coming off their first World Series in 108 years, and despite the continued grumblings by the commissioner about pace of play, TV ratings are higher than they’ve ever been. MLB is also coming off the best WBC since the event began.
For MLB fans, March and April are the time to think about everything that might happen during the season. Heck, even the San Diego Padres can dream about contending for a few days. With Opening Day only days away, these are the top 10 storylines to watch that will define the 2017 MLB season over the next six months. Buckle up and enjoy the ride to October.
10. How will the McCutchen drama play out?
The Pittsburgh Pirates spent most of their offseason making an honest effort to anger franchise icon Andrew McCutchen. They aggressively shopped him, and almost traded the All-Star to the Washington Nationals. Then, McCutchen was unceremoniously moved out of center field to right field without any real consultation. A player who has given so much to the city of Pittsburgh and the team deserved better.
McCutchen endured the worst season of his career in 2016, batting just .256/.336/.430 with 24 home runs and 79 RBI. His defensive value also fell off in center field, but that may have been due more to poor positioning than anything else. Moving him to right field now seems rash, but it may help reduce some of the stress on his body as he goes deeper into his thirties.
At the plate, McCutchen is due to rebound in a major way this year. He showed signs of life in August and September last year, and the skills that made him a .300/.400/.500 hitter and MVP have not eroded so much so that he is a .250 hitter. McCutchen had never labored through such a long, drawn-out slump in his career, and it weighed on him mentally last season. With an entire offseason to clear his mind, look for a big season and a return to All-Star form.
As for the Pirates, what they do with their superstar will largely depend on how well the team plays in the first half. If Pittsburgh struggles and is not in playoff contention, look for another round of McCutchen trade talks to ramp up. Still, McCutchen is signed through 2018 at less than $29 million, which is very affordable for the Pirates, and has made it clear he would like to play out his entire career in the Iron City. Why not work on a long-term extension instead of a trade?
9. Which Orioles hitter will lead MLB in home runs?
For the past four seasons, the Baltimore Orioles have employed the MLB leader in home runs. Chris Davis kicked off the streak with 53 in 2013, and Mark Trumbo was the latest O’s hitter to top baseball with 47 in 2016. Both are back on the team in 2017, and the Orioles will look to improve on their team total of 253 from a season ago.
Since they began winning again in 2012, the Orioles have hit over 1,100 home runs as a team, nearly 100 more than the Toronto Blue Jays in second place. Their entire offense is predicated on their ability to hit the longball. They don’t draw many walks, can be prone to empty at-bats with men in scoring position, and hardly ever run. Just sit back, watch the Orioles swing from their heels, and enjoy the show (sidenote, this can be a very frustrating show to watch for Orioles fans).
The eventual MLB leader in home runs this season is very likely on the 25-man roster in Baltimore. Davis and Trumbo would be good picks. In the first year of his massive contract, Davis struggled, but was held back by a hand injury that affected his swing. He still managed to approach 38 home runs. Trumbo is a perfect fit for the Orioles lineup and the AL East. He has also tinkered with his swing to maximize his launch angle.
Davis or Trumbo would be the easy picks, but keep an eye on Manny Machado. The superstar third baseman is on the verge of taking things to yet another level. He had 77 extra-base hits in 2016, with 37 leaving the yard. With just a bit more plate discipline and a little more protection from Davis hitting behind him, it would not be a surprise to see Machado hit 45 home runs this year. He’s bulked up, and ready to put himself further ahead of Bryce Harper in the conversation for second-best player in the game behind Mike Trout.
8. What can Gary Sanchez do for an encore?
Not even the great Babe Ruth can match what Gary Sanchez did in his rookie year for the New York Yankees. Sanchez hit 20 home runs in only 53 games and 201 official at-bats. August was his first full month in the big leagues, and the catcher batted .389/.458/.832 with 11 home runs and 21 RBIs in 24 games. Sanchez eventually cooled in September, but still hit nine more home runs, albeit with slightly less contact.
The big leagues will get a chance to digest Sanchez over the course of 162 games this season. It was obvious in September that pitchers were able to begin finding holes in his swing. He struck out 35 times in 102 at-bats, but still slugged .520. Given over 600 trips to the plate, Sanchez’s average will slide back down closer to .270, but he will still provide tremendous power.
Sanchez could have an outside shot at 40 home runs in his first full season in the big leagues. He has a consistent swing, and did not rack up strikeouts in the minor leagues. Obviously, few catchers have ever slugged close to .700 for a full season, but Sanchez looks like a different type of player than we have seen in the past. He will hit more than a few moonshots this season.
On a similar note, Kyle Schwarber will finally play his first full season in the big leagues. Schwarber played in only two games in 2016 before injuring his knee in a collision in the outfield. He has a .242/.353/.479 line with 16 home runs in 71 regular-season games. In the postseason, however, Schwarber is a .364/.451/.727 hitter with five home runs and 11 RBIs. He is already an October legend, and his career is still just getting started.
7. Is this it for the Royals?
The Kansas City Royals have defied the odds over the past few seasons, but are approaching a turning point for their franchise. No one will ever forget the feeling of winning the ALCS in 2014 or the World Series in 2015. Unfortunately, good feelings don’t write the checks for players like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain who will all be free agents at the end of the season.
The rule changes to the CBA make it much harder for a mid-market team like the Royals to capitalize when they lose free agents to other teams. Their payroll is already at record levels, and none of their big three pending free agents will be cheap. It’s also worth questioning whether they have the core to surround their stars to even make it worth pumping in millions of dollars to keep the band together.
The Royals should remain on the fringes of contention for the first half. They already sold off one asset over the winter, swapping Wade Davis for Jorge Soler. Veteran starter Jason Hammel was also added to stabilize a rotation in flux after the tragic loss of Yordano Ventura. Brandon Moss will also help make up for the loss of Kendrys Morales.
The moves were enough to keep the Royals competitive to start the year, but their bullpen, which was a strength during the runs to the World Series, isn’t what it used to be. The rotation was never great, and the offense looks different without Morales and Ben Zobrist. Pulling the trigger on a bigger rebuilding effort is going to hurt, but it might be the necessary step for a franchise that has to do everything right to even have a shot at winning.
6. Will the Astros aggressive winter pay off?
No team in Major League Baseball came into the offseason with as aggressive an agenda as the Houston Astros. By the end of December, the Astros had traded for Brian McCann and signed Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick, and Charlie Morton. Their lineup projects to be one of the deepest in baseball, with all nine hitters having the potential to top 20 home runs.
The starting rotation is still a bit questionable, but the Astros could have one more big move in them. Jose Quintana should be traded by the deadline, and Houston is one of a handful of teams with the need for a frontline pitcher and the prospects to get him. Dallas Keuchel, Colin McHugh, and Lance McCullers all have upside, but also come with injury concerns.
Spending big has never guaranteed a team will be successful or even improve from year to year. McCann is not quite the player he was with the Atlanta Braves. Reddick is more of a platoon outfielder who has had injury issues throughout his career. Beltran is still a steady hitter, but at the age of 40, he may begin running out of steam in the second half.
The rotation will make or break the Astros. Keuchel and McCullers must be healthy and the front office must be willing to pull the trigger on a deal for Quintana if the need is clearly there. If the Astros even go 7-8 against the Texas Rangers instead of 4-15 as they did in 2016, this team heads to the playoffs quite easily.
5. Can the Rockies contend?
There are plenty of reasons the Colorado Rockies are the top sleeper pick for 2017. Their lineup is absolutely loaded top to bottom, and can hang ten runs on any given night, Coors Field or not. The pitching staff made big strides last season, and Jon Gray looks like the ace the Rockies have been searching for since Major League Baseball decided to conduct a psychics experiment 5,280 feet above sea level.
The Rockies don’t need their starters to lead the league in ERA. That will never happen. Keeping the opponent to around four runs a night should suffice with Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, and Ian Desmond (seriously…loaded) waiting to hit. Bet the over on the Rockies every chance you get this season.
All that being said, it would still be unfair to label the Rockies as legitimate contenders for 2017. They play in a division with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants, two of the most consistent teams in baseball. The Arizona Diamondbacks should also be much better than they were a year ago. The Rockies should win more than 81 games and flirt with the playoffs, but their real time to shine may not come until 2018.
4. Coping with grief in KC and Miami
Twice in the past six months, the baseball world has had to say goodbye to promising young pitchers at an early age. Jose Fernandez perished in a boating accident last September, while Yordano Ventura died in a car crash in the Dominican Republic in January. Both had so much unfulfilled promise and will leave voids in their respective clubhouses.
Both the Royals and the Miami Marlins will be playing this season to honor their fallen teammate. Dealing with such a tragedy is uncommon in baseball, but unfortunately it is becoming more commonplace with fast cars and fast lives claiming too many victims. Fernandez and Ventura need to be honored and remembered, but their deaths also serve as a cautionary tale.
It’s harder in baseball to “win one for the Gipper,” and the Marlins and Royals are only fringe contenders for the World Series at best. They will have extra motivation, and incredible things can happen when there is so much more to play for.
The Detroit Tigers will also be playing the 2017 season with an eye on honoring the memory of owner Mike Ilitch. He always wanted to win a World Series with the Tigers, but could never quite get over the hump. Detroit’s roster is aging quickly, and there have been rumblings about a rebuild. The Tigers seem to have the best chance to put together a special run at a title while grieving a loss.
3. Can the Mets’ aces stay healthy?
The New York Mets World Series hopes are built on the biggest house of cards in the league. They will again rely on five power pitchers to stay healthy for a 162-game grind. Last year, only Noah Syndergaard made it through the year unscathed. Rubber-armed Bartolo Colon is gone, and the Mets are putting their faith in Zack Wheeler, who has not pitched for them since 2014.
Four of the pitchers the Mets will be counting on have already had Tommy John surgery. Matt Harvey had another major procedure last year for thoracic outlet syndrome. Jacob deGrom had another elbow surgery. Steven Matz made only 22 starts, and Wheeler barely pitched in the minors. It is a very precarious position that the Mets find themselves in.
Without healthy pitchers, the Mets are not a contender for the World Series. In a watered-down division with two fully rebuilding teams and another team whose owner can’t seem to get out of the way, the Mets should be able to win enough games to at least claim a Wild Card, regardless of how healthy their rotation is. They won’t be able to get back to the World Series without them, though.
This collection of power arms has the ability to shut down the Cubs in a way that few teams can. They made quick work of the Cubs in the 2015 NLCS, and then went 5-2 against them last season. The Mets might be the one team in the National League with the best chance to derail a potential back-to-back, but only if their rotation is in one piece come October.
2. Will Boston’s rotation derail their shot at a title?
After trading for ace left-hander Chris Sale, the Boston Red Sox vaulted to the top of the list of contenders from the American League. Teaming Sale up with David Price and 2016 Cy Young Rick Porcello would have given the Red Sox one of the best trios in the league. Price, however, has already gone down with a significant elbow injury, and is not expected back until May.
Price’s status is very questionable for the rest of the season. Two of the sport’s most reputable orthopedic surgeons said they would have recommended surgery if he were younger, and Price is still not throwing a baseball. After struggling at times in his first season with the Red Sox, is this the beginning of the long, downward arc for Price’s career? Sale will be his usual great self, but can Porcello replicate his dominant Cy Young form?
The starting rotation and pitching staff in general has been a problem for the Red Sox since 2012. The franchise has had three last-place finishes since 2012, but has gotten back on top with an exciting group of young hitters. Teams have shown in recent years that an elite rotation is not a prerequisite for winning a championship, but the Red Sox learned the hard way last fall that a good pitching staff and dominant bullpen can shut down any offense. Trading for Sale and ace reliever Tyler Thornburg over the winter should have eased some of those concerns in Beantown.
Boston knows what it’s getting from Sale this season. Same goes for Porcello for the most part. From there, it’s anyone’s best guess. Drew Pomeranz looked spectacular for a half last year in San Diego, but struggled after being acquired. Knuckleballer Steven Wright has a great story, but the knuckler is a fickle friend. Eduardo Rodriguez is a top prospect, but continues to deal with injuries. There are three big question marks in a rotation that is supposed to help take this team to the next level. The Red Sox are still one of a handful of teams with a legitimate chance to win the AL, but their title odds go down considerably if any more injuries pop up in the rotation.
1. Will the Cubs repeat?
After waiting almost 110 years for a title, you would think winning one time would be enough for the Cubs and their fans. Think again. It’s not too early to begin thinking about this team as a dynasty in same mold as the Yankees of the late 1990s. The Cubs have what it takes to win multiple championships in the next five years, and have to be viewed as the favorites entering the 2017 season.
The same lineup that bludgeoned the National League is back almost in its entirety. Losing Dexter Fowler to the St. Louis Cardinals might have hurt most teams, but the Cubs will replace him with Kyle Schwarber — just a guy with an OPS over 1.000 in the playoffs the past two years. Top prospect Albert Almora will take over in center field, and a full season of Willson Contreras behind the plate won’t hurt.
Next: Top 10 MLB sleeper teams for 2017
The Cubs have an embarrassment of riches thanks to the calculated approach of Theo Epstein, the greatest executive of this generation. Their manager, Joe Maddon, is the best in the business, even if he did nearly gag away Game 7. All eyes will be on the Cubs this year, whether looking for any cracks in their armor or waiting for the inevitable celebration after the final out of the World Series. The Cubs have often been a top story in baseball, but after years of losing, it’s a nice change to see them defending a title.