As the No. 1 seed Warriors and the No. 8 seed Trail Blazers prepare to face off, here are five keys to their first round matchup.
The Golden State Warriors and Portland Trail Blazers will tip-off their first round series on Sunday, Apr. 16 at Oracle Arena. Golden State swept the regular season series against Portland, winning all four games by an average margin of 19.5 points.
But guess who remains steadfast? The Trailblazers’ superstar point guard Damian Lillard, who believes his team can knock off the Warriors. Lillard had this to say when he spoke with USA Today Sports’ Sam Amick:
"“We’re competitive. We believe in ourselves. It’s going to be a tall task, but it’s not like it’s impossible. We’re going in there to win it. We’re going to go in there and put our best foot forward.”"
Well, here are five keys to the macthup between these familiar foes.
5. Golden State’s offensive efficiency
The Warriors won their first two regular season games against the Trail Blazers by a combined 68 points, including a 45-point massacre on Dec. 17. Golden State deployed a ferocious offensive attack to put both games out of reach after three quarters.
In the two blowout wins, Golden State shot a combined 57.4 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from the 3-point line. They also dished out 36 assists in those games and completely overwhelmed Portland with their consistent ball movement and balance.
While Kevin Durant and Steph Curry played well, it was Ian Clark who incinerated Portland’s defense. The Warriors reserve guard averaged 22.5 points and shot a blistering 89.5 percent from the field, including 86 percent from distance in the first two matchups.
The Warriors cannot be allowed to party like that. They shot less than 50 percent from the field in each of their 15 losses this season. And they were also limited to fewer than 100 possessions in 11 of those losses.
Portland is a below-average defensive team that ranks 21st in defensive rating, but they offered more resistance in their final two games against Golden State in January. Portland played much closer to their 45.5 percent average in opponent field goal percentage.
The Trail Blazers limited the Warriors to a combined 48 percent field goal percentage over the last two regular season meetings (Steph Curry missed the Jan. 29 game). The Trail Blazers lost those games by an average margin of five points. They lost their fist two games against the Warriors by an average margin of 34 points.
Golden State boasts the league’s best offensive rating, so Portland must police that efficiency. And if Portland is going to succeed in doing so, their frontcourt must make a difference.
4. Portland’s frontcourt
Portland ranks 25th in the league in post touches because they lacked a low-post presence until they stole Jusuf Nurkic from the Nuggets in February. Nurkic has been exceptional and has provided a huge lift for Portland. However, an MRI on Mar. 31 revealed a non-displaced fibular fracture in Nurkic’s right leg, leaving his status in question for this series.
Jusuf Nurkic’s health is paramount if the Blazers are going to have any chance at pulling off a monumental upset against the Warriors. Without Nurkic, the Blazers become one dimensional which could hinder their chances of advancing in the playoffs.
Portland’s frontcourt is fairly thin behind Nurkic. Ed Davis, Noah Vonleh, and Meyers Leonard were ineffective in limited minutes against Golden State in the regular season. None of those guys posed much of an offensive threat and did not deter anyone from attacking the basket.
The Blazers granted the Warriors unlimited paint re-entry in the first two meetings. The Warriors outscored them in the paint 108-64. The Blazers were also blasted on the boards by a combined margin of 38 rebounds in those routs.
Then, Portland’s frontcourt answered the bell in their January matchups with Golden State. They out rebounded Golden State 86-78 in those two games combined. Portland also won the battle in the paint 98-80. It was a stark contrast from their preceding blowout losses.
The Blazers will have to utilize that same formula to contend with the Warriors in this series. When their froncourt is fully engaged, the Blazers can be a dangerous foe. But even if Jusuf Nurkic is cleared to play, they will need much more from Davis, Vonleh, and Leonard.
It will take strength in numbers to defeat a juggernaut like the Warriors.
3. Strength in numbers
Golden State adopted the phrase above as their mantra in recent years. It signifies the roster depth they’ve used to terrorize the league. But for this series, Portland’s strength will have to be in their numbers.
Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are among the most potent scoring backcourts in the NBA. Both are capable of creating whatever they want on offense. But their brilliance alone won’t be enough.
The Blazers’ bench was outpaced by a combined 41 points in the two early season poundings they received by the Warriors. Team owner Paul Allen spent a total of $145 million on reserve guards Allen Crabbe and Evan Turner last summer to bolster said bench.
Crabbe and Turner posted net on/off ratings of -32 and -36 respectively, through the first two games combined versus the Warriors. Over their final pair of matchups in January, Turner proved he could be the Blazers’ x-factor. The seven-year veteran rebounded with 29 points and yielded a net on/off rating of +60 and helped the Blazers push the Warriors.
Players like Al-Farouq Aminu, Mo Harkless, and even Shabazz Napier will also need to be difference-makers for Portland. Napier scored 57 points total in the absence of Lillard and McCollum, over the final two regular season games.
For Golden State, depth is less of a concern because they start four All-Stars that can all dominate the game in various ways. Golden State beat Portland in a game without Steph Curry. They’ve also won without Klay Thompson’s offense.
So the Blazers must corral the likes of Ian Clark, Andre Iguodala, and Shaun Livingston. Their strength in numbers will have to exceed those of the Warriors. And it will start with their superstar point guard.
If Damian Lillard is not special in this series, then nothing else matters.
2. Peak Damian Lillard
Three years ago, Damian Lillard literally won a playoff series for the Blazers with a crazy 3-pointer. Two months ago, Lillard was left off the Western Conference All-Star roster for the second consecutive year, despite averaging 27 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. And one week ago, Lillard scorched the Utah Jazz with 59 points to propel Portland’s playoff push.
Lillard light up the Warriors for 51 points in a 32-point Blazers’ win last season. But he’s shooting just under 39 percent over his last eight games against Golden State. Lillard has settled for too many perimeter shots and has only attempted eight free throws over his last two games versus the Warriors.
The Warriors are tops in the league at defending the 3-point line. They are likely to live with Portland hoisting contested 3-pointers. Portland will not win that way.
The Blazers are at their best when Lillard is attacking the basket to create opportunities for himself and others. He ranks third in the NBA with 8.4 drive points per game. Lillard has to attack the Warriors’ defense early and often.
The Warriors don’t have many viable defensive options to throw at Lillard beyond Klay Thompson. And if Thompson gets in early foul trouble, the Warriors will be weakened on both ends of the floor. This would render Steph Curry vulnerable defensively.
Should Lillard lead the attack on the Splash Brothers, Portland will compete in this series. And once he gets loose, C.J. McCollum could provide the final shot in a lethal double tap against the Warriors.
It’s about that time for Damian Lillard to show up and show out.
1. Golden State on the fastbreak
Golden State scores 22.6 fast break points per game to lead the NBA. This was on full display as they outscored Portland 83-53 in that category over their four regular season meetings. It’s Golden State’s elite defense that leads to the easy transition buckets.
The Warriors rank second in the league in defensive rating. Their versatility and length fuels their defense and allows them to get deflections, steals, and blocks. They also lead the league in each of those three categories. The Warriors defense creates run-outs. Subsequently, the run-outs ignite their offense in a way that’s nearly impossible to defend.
The Blazers surrender just 12.7 fast break points per game, but largely struggled to slow the Warriors’ transition attack during the regular season. The Blazers did manage to outscore the Warriors 18-17 in fast break points on Jan. 29. The bad news is they still lost the game by 2 points. The worse news is Steph Curry did not play in that game.
Portland will have to control the pace of the game and limit their turnovers to force Golden State to play a half-court game. We’ve seen Golden State’s offensive chemistry appear questionable in half-court, end-of-clock, and end-of-quarter scenarios.
They have no such trouble in the open court. The party starts for the Warriors when they pull-up and drill threes on the break. In doing so, they can blow the doors off their opponents in a matter of minutes.
Next: 5 reasons we won't get a Cavaliers-Warriors Finals rematch
In the end, offense will not be scarce between these two teams which should make for an entertaining series.