NFL power rankings: Head coaches from 32-1

As the new NFL season approaches, here’s our power rankings of the head coaches in the league.

The 2017 NFL regular season is coming soon. Optimism, cautious or otherwise, reigns in most team facilities with at minimum playoff aspirations.

Players ultimately determine wins and losses, but coaches can make a difference by putting players in position to succeed with game plans and making in-game decisions that tip the scales. We know who the best NFL head coaches are and have been, with the list of Super Bowl winning teams providing at least a nice head start on that list.

Without further ado, here is our power ranking of the 32 current NFL head coaches from 32 all the way down to 1.

32. Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars

Someone had to be No. 32 on this list, and I’m going with Marrone. He took over as Jacksonville’s interim head coach late last season, after Gus Bradley was fired, and then was promoted to the permanent role alongside the hiring of Tom Coughlin as Executive Vice President of Football Operations.

Marrone procured a 25-25 record over four seasons at Syracuse into the head coaching job with the Buffalo Bills. Then opted out of his contract after just two seasons, due in part to ownership instability but also with his eye on taking the New York Jets’ job. He didn’t get that head coaching job, and landed with the Jaguars as offensive line coach and assistant head coach.

It’s easy to see Coughlin pulling a lot of strings in a management role for the Jaguars, with Marrone as his puppet. Nothing against the head coach, at least by title, but Marrone won’t get much credit for any success the Jaguars have while Coughlin is around.

31. Todd Bowles, New York Jets

To be fair, Bowles is being put in an unwinnable position entering his third season as Jets’ head coach. The same veterans that yielded a 10-6 near-playoff season in 2015 struggled through a 5-11 campaign last year, and the resulting shedding of many of those aforementioned veterans has left behind the most talent-bare roster in the league.

An organization that’s willing to tank and a coach that surely would like to win games to keep his job aren’t a good match. It’s hard to say what 2017 win total would allow Bowles to return for a fourth season with the Jets, if there’s even such a benchmark in play. But it’s rare for a coach more than one season into his tenure to survive an 0-16 or a 1-15 season, and that’s what the Jets are in line for this year.

Bowles will surely do his best to navigate a tough situation with the Jets this coming season. But he’s essentially a lame-duck head coach, and he has to know it with or without being told it by anyone above him ahead of time.

Bowles’ dismal place on this list is mostly a function of his circumstance, and not a broad comment on his coaching ability. He’ll surely have a job somewhere in the league in 2018, just don’t expect it to be as head coach of the Jets as they try to embark on the upswing of a rebuild.

30. Jim Caldwell, Detroit Lions

The Lions have made the playoffs in two of Caldwell’s three seasons as head coach, which is a solid accomplishment given the franchise’s history. But he’s in the final year of his contract, no extension seems to be coming anytime soon and general manager Bob Quinn may want to hire his own coach as soon as he can.

Caldwell has continually dismissed concern about his contract situation publicly, which is not shocking as a bit of “coach speak” with preparation for a new season going on now. But it has to be in the back of his mind, from a human perspective, and this is shaping up as a make the playoffs or else season for Caldwell. Winning a playoff game may even be an extra requirement for him to keep the job, which is speculative but not out of the question.

An in-season firing is unlikely, but a bad start to the season will put Caldwell firmly on the hot seat if he isn’t there already. He has a 53-43 record in the regular season as an NFL head coach, over six total seasons with the Colts and Lions. But if Quinn wants a younger, more dynamic coach (Josh McDaniels?) Caldwell will not last beyond the coming season without more success than the Lions have had during his tenure.

29. Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts

Speaking of being on the hot seat, Pagano has to fit that bill as the new season approaches. The Colts, or more specifically owner Jim Irsay, chose him over former general manager Ryan Grigson when it came time to make a change after back-to-back 8-8 campaigns. But that doesn’t mean his job is at all secure beyond this season.

The biggest elephant in the room for Pagano is new Colts’ general manager Chris Ballard, who has taken on the task of restocking a roster that was so poorly constructed and thoroughly mismanaged by Grigson.

But the second lingering issue is the health of quarterback Andrew Luck, who had offseason shoulder surgery and is still working his way back to full strength. There is a doomsday scenario being offered about Luck opening the regular season on the PUP list, which would cost him at least the first six games. While it’s unlikely, and Luck wouldn’t necessarily need to practice or play before Week 1, any thought that he will miss time is bad news for Pagano.

The Colts will be very vulnerable on the field, and by connection, Pagano is too without an improved win total this year. He’s not a good enough head coach to overcome talent deficiencies on a roster, and if Luck is operating at less than 100 percent health he can’t deliver a 10-win season and save Pagano’s job on his own.

28. Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles Chargers

After serving as a running backs coach for multiple teams for a long time, Lynn was elevated to offensive coordinator and then interim head coach with the Buffalo Bills last year. He had been a head coaching candidate before and was hired by the Chargers in January.

Lynn will take on the unique challenge of coaching a team in relocation transition, from San Diego to Los Angeles, and the Chargers will also play in a soccer stadium before sharing the Rams’ new stadium when it is ready.

Lynn appeared to be trying exercise some authority recently, by reportedly prohibiting Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates from attending the Hall of Fame induction of former teammate LaDainian Tomlinson. He eventually said he issued no such declaration, though Gates willing accepted any consequences of his decision to attend while Rivers posted a congratulatory message for Tomlinson.

Even if Lynn did not actually try to keep Gates and Rivers from going to Canton, that the suggestion got out publicly at all is a bad look so early in his tenure. It points to a leak somewhere, from someone, and also points to a head coach that already may be in over his head when it comes to fairly trivial matters.

No. 27: Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns

Jackson is the latest head coach tasked with pulling the Browns out of the “Factory of Sadness” doldrums, and a 1-15 mark in his first season was not a good start. But a new, somewhat analytics driven front office seems to have things going on a better track, and owner Jimmy Haslam may finally be getting patient enough to give Jackson some time to see a rebuilding project through.

But this is the Browns, and another incredibly bad season record-wise would make it tough for Jackson to keep his job. A playoff berth can’t be a realistic requirement, but three wins or less and/or a lack of notable progress from young players on the offensive side of the ball would be a black mark for Jackson, who came to Cleveland after being an offensive coordinator for the division rival Bengals.

If Jackson does not last to a third season as Browns’ head coach, it shouldn’t be a detriment to his coaching career. He also only lasted only one season as head coach of the Oakland Raiders in 2011, when that franchise was down, so maybe Jackson is just meant to be an offensive coordinator. Or maybe the third time as an NFL head coach will be the charm if things don’t last with the Browns.

No. 26: John Fox, Chicago Bears

In two seasons as Bears’ head coach, Fox has a 9-23 record. Couple last year’s 3-13 with a move up to get Mitch Trubisky in this year’s draft, and Chicago clearly has an eye on the future with a head coach that is 62 years old and has two Super Bowl appearances on his resume.

A veteran coach and a rebuilding team that is not necessarily prioritizing veteran players is a bad mix. Look no further than the structure of free agent quarterback Mike Glennon’s contract, which is essentially a one-year commitment and leaves the door open for Trubisky to take the reins.

Fox generally had an aversion to playing rookies during his time as Panthers and Broncos head coach. So it’s easy to see a particular hesitation to play a rookie quarterback this year, no matter how bad the Bears’ record gets.

There was also a report out after the draft that Fox did not know of the Bears’ plan to trade up one spot for Trubisky until a couple of hours before. That’s either bad planning, a unique opportunity that could not be passed up or just outright leaving the head coach out of the loop without any input that would have mattered. Two of those things aren’t in Fox’s control, but the third is an ominous sign for his future in Chicago if there’s anything to it.

It’s safe to say Fox won’t take kindly to being told he has to play Trubisky if such a call comes from above him. If the Bears are on track for another bad season, his media availability and an onslaught of questions about who will start under center may make Fox an underrated source of notable quotes. In any case, Fox’s power is gone and come January his job probably will be too.

No. 25: Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers

Shanahan obviously goes to San Francisco with a familiar surname and a resume of success on his own as an offensive coordinator. The security of a six-year deal, in tandem with new general manager John Lynch, is also a good thing as the 49ers try to start a rebuild the right way.

But San Francisco also has one of the most talent-deficient rosters in the league. It may be a few years before they fully emerge from the mistakes of former general manager Trent Baalke and the shadow of former coach Jim Harbaugh, who led the franchise to its only notable success in the last decade.

Shanahan also carries some added expectations attached to what his father Mike did as a head coach, most notably two Super Bowl wins with the Denver Broncos. The team he has won’t meet those potential championship aspirations in 2017, probably 2018 and maybe beyond that. Finding a quarterback is the No. 1 priority, and it’s possible Kirk Cousins falls right into Shanahan’s lap in free agency next March. But a cultivation of a young quarterback won’t start until at least next year and without a fairly notable move in free agency to bridge the gap San Francisco’s win totals may suffer.

Shanahan has the luxury of time in San Francisco, as long as wonder boy owner Jed York doesn’t decide to change course and fire him quickly. But that’s about the only thing going for him right now in his first head coaching job, so Shanahan is sufficiently buried on this list.

No. 24: Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills

McDermott is a first-time head coach, but all signs point to him running the show in Buffalo. Former general manager Doug Whaley was on thin ice anyway, but after the draft he was let go and Brandon Beane was hired to replace him. Beane came from his most recent role as assistant general manager for the Carolina Panthers, where he spent 19 years and McDermott was the defensive coordinator from 2011-2016.

The Bills have the longest-running playoff drought in the NFL, and it seems McDermott is the direct opposite of Rex Ryan. The only thing they have in common is acumen on the defensive side of the ball, but otherwise, McDermott won’t be making any bold declarations about beating Tom Brady or going to a Super Bowl. The on-field results will speak more than anything, without bluster from the coach, one way or the other.

But a head coach having a lot of say in personnel is a situation that is earned, despite Bill Parcells’ famous “cook the meal, shop for some of the groceries” line. McDermott and Beane may essentially be of one mind on who to draft, sign, cut and keep, but conflicts are possible or even likely.

McDermott has to prove his mettle as a head coach and secondarily as a personnel man on some level. Until he does so, he’ll be in the bottom half of lists like this. In the meantime, after the Bills traded wide receiver Sammy Watkins to the Rams, McDermott seemed to ask for belief in “the process.”

No. 23: Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams

At 30 years old at the time of his hiring, McVay became the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. He has since turned 31, 12 days after his hiring was made official, and McVay should at least bring a refreshing approach to the Rams after years of stagnation under Jeff Fisher.

At the top of McVay list of tasks is finding out if 2016 No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff has what it takes to be a franchise quarterback. The results weren’t promising last year (five touchdowns, seven interceptions and a completion rate shy of 55 percent in eight games), which can be blamed on a terrible offensive line, a lack of skill position talent around him and Fisher to varying degrees. But those excuses are mostly gone, and McVay got a lot out of what could be considered marginal talent during his three years as Redskins’ offensive coordinator.

McVay has obviously climbed the coaching ladder quickly, and he also started young as a 22-year old assistant with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in 2008. He should have some time to prove himself as a head coach, but in the years before the Rams move into a fancy new stadium, the on-field results will have to improve. Otherwise, owner Stan Kroenke will surely inject himself into the process to hire a bigger name head coach and create some buzz.

 No. 22: Doug Pederson, Philadelphia Eagles

Pederson is an Andy Reid disciple through and through. He played for Reid in 1999 before giving way to some rookie named Donovan McNabb, served as a quality control coach and quarterbacks coach for the Eagles and then followed Reid to the Kansas City Chiefs as offensive coordinator from 2013-2015. In Pederson’s first season back in Philadelphia as the head coach, the Eagles went 7-9 and missed the playoffs after a promising 3-0 start.

As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk has noted, Reid was fired after the only time he missed the playoffs in two straight years as Eagles’ head coach. That doesn’t necessarily mean Pederson will be fired if the Eagles don’t make the playoffs in his second season, but a six-game suspension for Cowboys’ running back Ezekiel Elliott (pending a possible appeal) makes the reigning NFC East champions very vulnerable.

Pederson has to prove he’s a good head coach, apart from any residual tie to Reid that may or may not still matter. This year will tell a lot about that, with an offseason effort to surround quarterback Carson Wentz with better talent. It may not be playoffs or bust in 2017, but another losing season could put Pederson on the hot seat a year from now.

No. 21: Vance Joseph, Denver Broncos

After interviewing for the Broncos’ head coaching job a few years ago, before Gary Kubiak was hired, Joseph was hired to replace the retiring Kubiak after one season as Miami Dolphins’ defensive coordinator.

The old line about having two quarterbacks and not really having one applies right now in Denver. Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch are competing for the starting job again, and through one preseason game, there did not appear to be a winner. Siemian may be something of a frontrunner based on winning the job a year ago and playing solidly, but it also appears Lynch is not making a strong case to start right now. A rumor surfaced attaching the Broncos to Bengals backup quarterback A.J. McCarron, and general manager John Elway dismissed it as “fake news”.

Joseph has to decide on a quarterback this year, eventually, before Week 1, and hope that player can lead the Broncos back to the playoffs. He won’t be a one-and-done head coach, but if Siemian fails to really assert himself Joseph may be stuck playing Lynch, Denver 2016 first-round pick who needs to start justifying that investment soon. Head coaches do fail due to not ever finding a suitable quarterback, and Joseph may get a chance to have some input in finding one next spring if things don’t work out this year.

The Broncos should win a fair amount of games under Joseph this year. But the swing games that will determine if they make the playoffs are likely to come down to a play made by the defense, not a clutch throw by a quarterback or an especially shrewd coaching maneuver.

No. 20: Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals

Lewis always has the appearance of a lame-duck head coach, and this year he really is one heading into the final year of his contract. A series of one-year extensions on an annual basis has not yet come to fruition this year, and nearly six months ago now Lewis suggested a contract extension for him would “put everybody’s mind at ease going forward for their futures.” Truer words, however clichéd and a bit jumbled, have probably never been spoken by a head coach discussing his job status.

Lewis is the second-longest tenured head coach in the NFL, entering his 15th season with the Bengals. He also led the team to the playoffs five straight years from 2011-2015, and in six of seven seasons going back to 2009. But Cincinnati has not won a playoff game in over 26 years now when they beat the Houston Oilers with Boomer Esiason as their starting quarterback, and that zero in Lewis’ playoff win column is a black mark for him.

Lewis deserves a ton of credit for lasting as long as he has  Bengals’ head coach under notably tight-fisted owner Mike Brown. Last year’s disappointing 6-9-1 record is fresh on everyone in the organization’s mind, and the perpetual heat on Lewis’ seat is turned up a bit.

Lewis probably deserves better than the Bengals, and more specifically Brown. But don’t expect any public venting of frustration, as usual, and Lewis will continue to come off as almost too mild-mannered right to the end of his tenure.

No. 19: Jay Gruden, Washington Redskins

In three seasons under Gruden the Redskins have made the playoffs once, with a 21-26-1 record. That may be enough to put him on the hot seat, especially with Dan Snyder in the owner’s box, but Gruden signed a two-year contract extension through 2020 back in March.

Gruden is not on the front line of how badly the Redskins have botched the situation with Kirk Cousins, and his coaching has helped unlock Cousins’ full potential to put the organization in a position to have to commit to him with a market value long-term contract. But I’m rendering the coach guilty purely by association, as the entire organization looks bad publicly regarding Cousins.

A contract extension really doesn’t assure Gruden’s job security long-term, it just makes a further money commitment to him if he is fired before his new deal expires. Snyder surely won’t easily stand for another non-playoff season, and a petulant kicking of Gruden on his way out the door (ala former general manager Scot McCloughan) can’t be ruled out.

Gruden also deserves credit for working with a difficult owner, toeing the company line and knowing his lane. But he’s not an elite level head coach, and if his last name were different the broad perception of him would be different too.

No. 18: Ben McAdoo, New York Giants

If this were a ranking of bad haircuts and mustaches among NFL head coaches, McAdoo would surely be No. 1. As it is the Giants seemed to win 11 games last season in spite of him, including two wins over the rival Dallas Cowboys.

Eli Manning is coming off a down year, (26 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 6.7 yards per attempt), in his third year running McAdoo’s offense. McAdoo clearly blamed Manning for the offense’s struggles last year, with his 20 turnovers and poor pre-snap decisions specifically cited, as the Giants finished 25th in the league in total yardage and 26th in points per game.

Manning is not the type to get into the blame game publicly, by deflecting from himself in taking any said blame or calling out a coach. But McAdoo so bluntly calling Manning out invites some questions about their quarterback-head coach relationship, and some repairing of it may need to be done from McAdoo’s end.

McAdoo has some work to do in play calling and overall game management, but after just one year as a head coach, he gets some benefit of the doubt. But if things don’t show signs of improvement this year, with or without a better win total for the Giants, McAdoo will remain down the ranks of NFL head coaches as a whole.

No. 17: Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans

The Texans have posted a 9-7 record in each of O’Brien’s three seasons as head coach, including back-to-back division titles in 2015 and 2016. But O’Brien’s offensive acumen has not yet come to fruition in Houston, due mostly to not being able to find anything even close to past pupil Tom Brady under center. But this year’s move up to draft Deshaun Watson is a good step in that process, and the two-time Heisman Trophy finalist could start Week 1.

There have been some questions about O’Brien’s job status, with speculation other teams with openings were waiting to see if he became available after last season. Entering the fourth year of his original five-year deal, if O’Brien does not get a contract extension the same speculation about him leaving will surely surface after this season. If he is let go in Houston, O’Brien will not lack for suitors.

O’Brien and the Texans could easily win the AFC South again this year, which would make it tough (but not unprecedented) for him to be fired by owner Bob McNair whenever the team’s season ends. But a playoff win against a non-third string starting quarterback would be nice at some point, and it’s getting toward put up or shut up time for O’Brien to lead the Texans to a legit playoff run.

No 16.: Mike Mularkey, Tennessee Titans

After stepping in as interim head coach during the 2015 season (2-7 record), the Titans had the second winning record (9-7) in Mularkey’s four-plus seasons as an NFL head coach last season. He’s still got a long way to go to become a proven, winning head coach, but the Titans are least an intriguing team now with Marcus Mariota under center and some promising young players throughout the roster.

After his playing career, Mularkey created a solid resume as an offensive coordinator. But his previous head coaching stints, with the Buffalo Bills (2004-2005) and Jacksonville Jaguars (2012) were as bad as they were short, and his promotion to the full-time role with the Titans was highly uninspired at the time and still looks to be so now.

The Titans’ expected rise on the field this year will raise Mularkey’s profile league-wide to some degree, whether it’s really deserved or not. He’s a middle of the road head coach until further notice though, with an old-school “exotic smash mouth” approach to how Tennessee’s offense will function. An AFC South title in 2017 will not change that view of Mularkey as a mediocre head coach, and anything less could be considered a underachievement when it’s all said and done.

No. 15: Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers

After a 15-1 regular season, and a Super Bowl appearance, the Panthers fell off a cliff to 6-10 last year. In Rivera’s six seasons as head coach, the team has never posted back-to-back winning seasons. While that pattern bodes well for 2017, Rivera’s .557 regular season win percentage is skewed upward significantly by a 12-4 in 2013 and 2015’s 15-1.

The health of Cam Newton’s throwing shoulder will go a long way toward determining where Carolina goes this year. A priority was put on diversifying the offense with the drafting of Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel, and by connection easing Newton’s load as a runner. Whether that comes to fruition or not rests on offensive coordinator Mike Shula, and also on Newton rearranging his instincts to take off and run at times.

There’s usually a surprise head coach firing in the NFL each year, and Rivera is my pick to be it after the coming season. The NFC South is a very tough division, and a second straight double-digit loss season is a real possibility for the Panthers. It’s a rare (if unprecedented) head coach that would survive back-to-back seasons like that, and Rivera is hardly a unique, high-level head coach in that way. A simple non-playoff season should be enough to heat up his seat, and owner Jerry Richardson could very well decide it’s time for a change.

No. 14: Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Koetter is at the helm of a rising team, as the Buccaneers ripped off a five-game winning streak in November and December last year to enter the playoff race before eventually falling short at 9-7. A higher profile from being featured on this year’s “Hard Knocks” is also raising expectations, and Tampa Bay is a popular team to rise up this year.

Koetter seems to have the mentality to be a successful NFL head coach, but time will tell and he’s only one season in right now. As “Hard Knocks” goes forward we should see more of that acumen, even it’s ultimately a bit overblown for television and invites instant reaction.

One knock on Koetter is his fairly ordinary track record as a college head coach. Over nine combined seasons at Boise State (1998-2000) and Arizona State (2001-2006), he had a 66-44 record. Leaving out to two 10-win seasons at Boise, he was 46-39 otherwise. While that doesn’t mean he can’t be a very good (or at least better than he was at the college level) NFL head coach, Koetter doesn’t have the track record to remove any and all doubt right now.

A year from now, Koetter could have a case to be in the top-10 on any list like this. But he’s in the middle of the pack this year, with an arrow pointing up if I could put one next to his name.

No. 13: Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys

Now through six full seasons as Cowboys’ head coach, which seems unbelievable, Garrett is the longest-tenured head coach Jerry Jones has had as the team’s owner. Three straight 8-8 campaigns have turned into two division titles over the last three seasons, with a key player injury-riddled 4-12 mulligan in 2015 in between.

It takes a unique coach to function under the overriding umbrella that Jones puts over the Cowboys’ organization, and Garrett has done so pretty admirably for longer than anyone could have expected. He hasn’t seemed to push for much say in personnel moves, preferring to just coach the team, meet those obligations and stay in the background as much as the Cowboys’ head coach ever can. Some might say that makes Garrett a patsy for Jones, and thus makes him easy to control and the perfect coach to work under Jones, but I see Garrett slowly emerging from that shadow.

Garrett has some job security, entering the third year of a five-year deal he signed in 2015 and with those two aforementioned division titles in recent years. How he’s able to navigate the team through the challenge of some early season suspensions, most notably Ezekiel Elliott’s six-game ban (as of right now), will have a lot say about how the Cowboys’ 2017 season turns out.

Shy of the Cowboys winning another Super Bowl during his tenure, and probably even then, Garrett won’t ever get credit for the team’s success and fans will always give him the lion share of the blame for any shortcomings. Jones does not share credit easily (see Jimmy Johnson’s departure. etc.), and he’ll publicly take credit whenever possible. But Garrett is in the top half of NFL head coaches, faint as that praise may seem to be.

No. 12: Adam Gase, Miami Dolphins

In Gase’s first season as head coach, the Dolphins turned around a slow start, went 10-6 and made the playoffs for the first time since 2008. Having to start backup quarterback Matt Moore was ultimately the downfall in a Wild Card Round loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers though, as Ryan Tannehill was out with a knee injury.

Speaking of Tannehill and his left knee injury, a decision not to have surgery has come back to bite the Dolphins. Tannehill was injured in training camp practice a couple of weeks ago, and Miami has now signed Jay Cutler to fill the void. Cutler had one of his best seasons in 2015, when Gase was the Bears’ offensive coordinator, with a career-best 92.3 passer rating and 11 interceptions in 483 pass attempts. So expectations remain somewhat high, even if the Dolphins are no real threat to the Patriots in the AFC East.

Gase has had a lot of success working with different styles of quarterback, from Tim Tebow, to Peyton Manning, to Cutler, to Tannehill to Moore in a short sample late last year. Reuniting with Cutler in the middle of camp is not an ideal situation, but there’s time for “Smokin’ Jay” to catch up.

Gase is on the rise as a head coach, and the Dolphins are finally an interesting team to keep an eye on.

No. 11: Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings

After a 5-0 start last year, the Vikings faded big time and finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs. Talk of a mutiny within the secondary during a late season loss to the rival Green Bay Packers was a bad look for Zimmer, particularly since it may have originated from long-time trusted veteran Terence Newman.

Circumstances have put Zimmer behind the eight-ball a bit during his three seasons as Vikings’ head coach. An off the field issue took running back Adrian Peterson off the field for all but one game in 2014, and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater’s late preseason knee injury last year forced the Vikings to give up a first-round pick for Sam Bradford. And let’s not forget his own multiple eye surgeries last year, which caused Zimmer to miss a game. Those situations straddle the line between reasons and excuses, but in the one proverbially “clean” season under Zimmer the Vikings went 11-5 and won the NFC North in 2015.

With the Vikings playing host to the Super Bowl in February, owner Zygi Wilf would surely love to see the team play in the game. That will put some heightened, if unrealistic, expectations on Zimmer heading into a what could be a critical season for him. It’s a little early for legitimate hot seat talk, but a losing record this year would invite it. Zimmer seems to have learned from some mistakes he made in 2016, so things should be more stable overall for the Vikings this year.

No. 10: Dan Quinn, Atlanta Falcons

Quinn faces a unique challenge heading into his third season, as the Falcons try to put a historic second half Super Bowl collapse behind them. Everyone is saying all the right things in that regard, but time will tell if the team can avoid that proverbial Super Bowl hangover. Recent history has not been kind to Super Bowl losers, with a lot of non-playoff seasons the season after.

That said, the Falcons have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball and every key player from 2016 is back. Quinn is trying to set the tone for leaving the Super Bowl loss in the rearview mirror, however oddly with a wall clock in his office that has the word “NOW” in place of the numbers, but it has to be in the back of everyone’s mind if the Falcons get deep in the playoffs again this year. The media will surely take every opportunity to ask questions about the Super Bowl collapse when they come, with Quinn as the front man for that scrutiny if disappointing losses start to pile up.

Quinn is a good coach, with one of the most talented teams in the league in place. But he’ll have to be an amateur psychologist at various points this year too, and know when to push certain buttons on and off the field. That push and pull will say a lot about how Atlanta does this year, in a very tough division that has rarely had a back-to-back winner.

No.9: Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers

Over 11 seasons under McCarthy, the Packers have made the playoffs nine times with double-digit regular season wins eight times and six division titles. But only one Super Bowl win (and appearance) thus far with Aaron Rodgers under center invites criticism and creates speculation about the possibility he would be fired. A stubborn refusal to fire defensive coordinator Dom Capers, even with notably bad results at times and on big playoff stages, has also led to criticism being directed at McCarthy.

A lack of a traditional owner to call the shots has given McCarthy and general manager Ted Thompson added job security in Green Bay, for better or worse. But a long track record of success makes change very hard to make too, and any potential conflict between Rodgers and McCarthy seems to have been overblown.

The Packers, in some respects, can be seen as vulnerable enough to leave the NFC North title there for the taking this year. But as John Madden once said, and I’m paraphrasing, “a great quarterback is a great deodorant.” Rodgers is still in his prime, and he’ll take a lot of stink away from other aspects of Green Bay’s roster. McCarthy has been along for the ride with Rodgers, for lack of a better phrase, with his own flaws as a coach set aside at times. But he should not apologize for having a great quarterback for a long time either and winning plenty of games as a result.

No.8: Jack Del Rio, Oakland Raiders

After a long run as Jacksonville Jaguars’ head coach (2003 through 11 games in 2011), Del Rio spent three successful seasons as defensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos. After a 7-9 finish in his first season as head coach, the Raiders went 12-4 and made the playoffs for the first time since 2002 last year. But any chance to derail the New England Patriots in the AFC playoffs went away with Derek Carr’s leg injury late in the regular season, and a Wild Card loss to the Houston Texans with third-string rookie quarterback Connor Cook starting inevitably came.

Carr is back healthy and ready to go now, with a big contract too, so the Raiders are in line to win double-digit games again this year. They will try to avenge two regular season losses to the Kansas City Chiefs, which kept them from winning the AFC West last year, and the notable addition of Marshawn Lynch will surely make things interesting.

The Raiders won eight games by a touchdown or less last season, and Del Rio has shown the ability to be aggressive and convey a confident, win-now mentality to the players. That’s very important for a coach to do, with calculated risks that prove out with good results. Some of those narrow results could go the other way this year, but it’s easy to see Del Rio making decisions that will tip that randomness Oakland’s way more often than not.

At first glance, Del Rio may not belong at this spot on this list. But he’s got a rising team, with some coaching chops, so he’s a top-10 NFL head coach for me.

No. 7: John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens

Due in part to his historical early success, with a playoff win in each of his first five seasons as head coach, it’s easy to overlook that Harbaugh and the Ravens have missed the playoffs and finished 8-8 or worse in three of the last four seasons. But with only one losing season in nine campaigns, Harbaugh is in no real danger of losing his job.

On the subject of Harbaugh’s job security, ESPN.com Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley is a little less optimistic. He gives Harbaugh’s job security a rating of 3 on a 1-5 scale, with 5 being the hottest of the hot seats in the league, along with the following blurb.

"Some will contend that the seat is hotter than this, but Harbaugh won a Super Bowl in 2012, beat the rival Steelers in the playoffs in 2014 and still ranks among the top 10 coaches in the NFL. Sure, he has missed the playoffs in three of the past four seasons, which has ratcheted up the pressure. But if the Ravens decide to part ways with Harbaugh, he wouldn’t be out of a job for long."

It’s hard to argue with Harbaugh’s overall track record, including a Super Bowl win and a 10-5 playoff record. That championship won’t buy him time forever though, and injuries have already started to hamper the Ravens this year again. This could be a critical year for Harbaugh, but he’s absolutely a top-10 head coach in the league until further notice.

No. 6: Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs

After a 4-12 2012 season with the Philadelphia Eagles that left him looking like a coach badly in need of a year off, Reid jumped right back in with the Kansas City Chiefs after being fired. Three double-digit win seasons in four years, and a division title last year have shown Reid has not lost his ability to coach offense and win games.

Reid gets criticized (rightfully so, in most cases) for how he manages the clock in late game situations. That was spotlighted most recently by a lack of urgency from Alex Smith and the Chiefs’ offense in a playoff loss to the Patriots a couple of years ago, when Kansas City had to score two touchdowns late in the fourth quarter and routinely ran the play clock down while Reid failed to take control and use timeouts.

In 18 seasons as an NFL head coach, Reid is 16-2 after a bye week. He’s also 3-0 after a postseason bye week, with an average margin of victory of 10 points. He’s clearly a master of extra preparation, and perhaps avoiding going overboard with an extra week to prepare, which is not all that surprising for a coach with an offensive tilt.

Reid’s postseason record is not good (11-12), but though it was a long time ago now he did make four straight NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl with the Eagles. The Chiefs have reached a clear ceiling with Smith under center, so Reid is getting a second shot at cultivating a first-round quarterback with this year’s pick of Patrick Mahomes. If it goes as well as it did the first time, with Donovan McNabb, Chiefs’ fans will be happy.

No. 5: Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints

In NFL history, it’s hard to find a better, longer marriage of head coach and quarterback than Payton and Drew Brees have been in New Orleans since 2006. The Saints have had one of the best offenses in the league throughout that 11 seasons (10 seasons technically, with Payton’s no-contact Bountygate suspension for the 2012 season), and the team won double-digit games five times in Payton’s first seven seasons on the sideline.

But the last three seasons have not been good, with a 7-9 record in all three, and it’s become annual speculation that Payton would consider leaving for another job. That plot is a little thicker now though and will be until further notice, with Brees entering the final year of his contract with no real urgency from his end regarding an extension. A Payton-Brees package deal somewhere else, eventually, if unofficially until it’s done, is not out of the question.

Even with a fourth straight 7-9 season, or worse, it’s hard to see Payton being fired in New Orleans anytime soon. He would have to leave on his own, for supposedly greener pastures, and if he knows Brees intends to go elsewhere a road to a departure could be cleanly paved.

Payton deserves a lofty spot on this list, due purely to his offensive acumen and long-running rapport with Brees. Better results this year will bolster my case.

No. 4: Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals

After a blowout loss to the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship Game, the Cardinals never seemed to recover last year on their way to a highly disappointing 7-8-1 record. But Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are back for one more try at a Super Bowl run this year, and Arians himself has two years left on his deal with some potential health concerns that could make him a relative short-timer.

Apart from his coaching ability, Arians is highly quotable and good for profane or nearly profane soundbites on a regular basis. He also has a unique sense of style, donning a collection of Kangol hats it’s unlikely another coach could easily pull off.

Arians is also a rarity among his peers in terms of what he favors in the passing game. He likes to throw downfield regularly and take risks, given how demoralizing a big pass play can be for an opposing defense. The trick will be getting something closer to 2015 out of Palmer this year.

Five of Arizona’s eight losses last year came by seven points or less. Having a better kicker in place will help that tide of fortune change, with Phil Dawson replacing Chandler Cantazaro, and Arians has pointed to a focus on late-game execution throughout the offseason.

Arians is one of my favorite head coaches in the NFL. At this point on this list, its little things that shift the rankings, so that likeability is what makes Arians No. 4 for me.

No. 3: Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers

Since 1969, the Steelers have had three head coaches. Tomlin is, of course, third in that line, after Chuck Noll and Bill Cowher, entering his 11th season now with a 103-57 regular season record (.644 winning percentage). Still just 45 years old, and with the Rooneys not firing coaches easily (if at all), Tomlin can probably have the Steelers’ job as long as he wants it.

Tomlin and the Steelers won a Super Bowl in just his second season, and they reached another Super Bowl in his fourth season. That kind of early success would be hard for anyone to replicate, and the Steelers are 3-4 in the playoffs since that second Super Bowl berth.

Tomlin is also highly quotable, and he’s generally very straight forward with the media. His most recent candor has come regarding running back Le’Veon Bell’s ongoing holdout, as the entire organization has broken some silence on the matter recently.

Here’s what Tomlin had to say about Bell on Aug. 14, to 93.7 The Fan in Pittsburgh.

"I have no idea when he’s going to show up,” Tomlin said. “I need him here yesterday. Not only for us, but for him. That’s my opinion. This team development process, this work that we’re doing out here is very much a part of overall game readiness. He’s a tremendous athlete, he’s highly conditioned, but this is football out here and you can’t simulate that. My opinion is I need him here yesterday, but I don’t always get what I want. So, when he gets here, we’ll deal with it and move forward.”"

Tomlin has had success, and he has job security that is basically unrivaled in the league. Another ring would be nice at some point, but Tomlin is on the podium of the NFL’s best head coaches.

No. 2: Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks

Carroll has been a great manager of egos practically since he arrived as Seahawks’ head coach, and entering his third season in 2012 he set aside the contract given to Matt Flynn and went with rookie Russell Wilson as his starting quarterback.

The Seahawks have won at least 10 games in five straight seasons, led by Wilson under center and a top-notch defense, and they were a whisker (or a better play call?) away from winning back-to-back Super Bowls. As it is, Carroll is one of just three coaches to win a Super Bowl and a college national title (Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer are the others).

Outside of his hair color, it’s hard to believe that Carroll is 65 years old (66 on Sept. 15). That makes him the oldest head coach in the NFL right now, and he’s under contract through 2019. His future beyond that is unclear, but it seems the grind of coaching has not worn down Carroll as it has plenty of others. So it’s easy to see him continuing to coaching into his 70s, assuming, of course, the Seahawks want him and his health is good.

The Seahawks have sometimes straddled the line on league rules under Carroll, including doing too much contact work during the offseason program and being penalized for it. But other than that there aren’t many black marks on him, and he lets players express themselves without known consequences. There’s a case for Carroll to be No. 1 on this list, but the next man here is far too obvious.

No. 1: Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

As if anyone else could be No. 1, right? Five Super Bowl rings as Patriots’ head coach, and nearly seven if a few plays had gone the other way in two losses to the New York Giants, with a .739 regular season win percentage (201-71 record) over 17 seasons, Belichick is almost in arguably the greatest head coach in NFL history.

Belichick has also earned some significant chops as a personnel man. When the Patriots decide to cut ties with a big-name player once they determine he’s no longer useful to them, they are rarely wrong. Lawyer Milloy and Randy Moss stand out as prime examples, and even though Richard Seymour earned two Pro Bowl selections with the Oakland Raiders he only played one more season after that. Contract demands have played a role in some of those decisions, and the jury is still out on linebacker Jamie Collins after he was dealt to the Cleveland Browns last year.

Belichick gets made fun of in some circles for his lack of loquaciousness, and outright criticized by some people. But he clearly doesn’t see it as his responsibility to give the media and opposing teams anything to use as fodder, and his players generally follow that.

No head coach can succeed on a high level without a great quarterback, and Belichick has obviously had one in Tom Brady. But if Brady shows serious signs of decline at age 40 this season, it will interesting to see if Belichick tries to move on without a second thought or if Brady is an exception to a general rule.

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Belichick is another coach who can have his job for a long as he wants it, and Patriots’ owner Robert Kraft has essentially confirmed that sentiment.