The Yankees sure look ready to overtake the Red Sox and control the AL East this season.
There isn’t a more intense rivalry in all of MLB than the Yankees versus the Red Sox. Each franchise has the resources to compete for World Series titles on an annual basis. That frequently leads to intense conflict between the AL East powers.
The natural question becomes which team is better positioned to win the battle this season. Boston headed into this week’s three-game series with a one-game lead in the Division — one that shrunk on Tuesday night. That doesn’t mean a ton given how much season is still left in front of both clubs. The current standings mean even less when you consider just how hot the Yankees are. They enter the series having won 16 of their last 18 games.
It’s unlikely that either team is going to run away from the other. Instead, you can expect a tight race that might come down to the final weekend of the season. There are almost certainly a lot of twists and turns left in the AL East race. Hot streaks, injuries and slumps will all be woven through the year to forge the 2018 melodrama that is Yankees-Red Sox. It’s just a better baseball season when these two teams are fully engaged and giving their all to outmatch the other.
Yankees fans can take comfort in the fact that their favorite team is well-positioned to overtake their bitter rivals this season. Read on to find out the top five reasons why New York is going to top Boston this season.
5. Jackie Bradley Jr. can’t hit
It’s not a secret that Jackie Bradley Jr. struggles at the plate. This season has been even worse normal for the athletic outfielder though. He comes into the series with a putrid batting average of just .178.
It’s not as if he’s been a .300 hitter for his career either. His career high batting average is just .267. We’re not talking about Wade Boggs going through a brief slump here. The dye is cast, Bradley is just a weakness for Boston at the plate.
Fortunately, he still provides the Red Sox terrific value defensively. That’s the only reason he’s still in Boston’s lineup every day. He’s split time between right and center field this season but he can handle either spot. It’s worth noting that his performance in center is starting to slip a little.
Playing a weak hitter early in the regular season is something Boston can get around. His inability to hit when things get tight later in the season will only be magnified. The fact that the Red Sox will likely stick with Bradley Jr. all season long gives the Yankees one clear advantage in this matchup.
4. David Price is broken
There was a time when David Price was one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. That time is over. The ugly truth is that Price has been a below-average starter for the Red Sox to start the season.
His ERA of 5.11 in his seven starts clearly illustrates that something is wrong. It’s even more of an issue when you consider the fact that Price is the highest paid player on Boston’s roster. The former Vanderbilt hurler is scheduled to make a tidy $30 million this season.
Manager Alex Cora believes Price’s issues boil down to a lack of velocity separation between his fastball and off speed pitches. That seems like a fancy way of saying that Price can’t throw as hard as he used to. The Red Sox coaching staff might be able to coax some marginal improvement out of Price, but he’s not going to return to the dominant form he’s flashed in years past.
If Price can’t turn things around quickly he’s going to continue to weigh down Boston’s starting rotation. The Red Sox still have a solid group overall, but switching Price from star to below-average is going to weigh the team down as the season progresses.
3. Giancarlo Stanton will heat up
Any Red Sox fans hoping that Stanton is going to keep hitting this poorly all season long are set to be sorely disappointed. His past clearly shows his bat starts to heat up when the weather does the same.
In other words, last year’s NL MVP isn’t going to hit .227 all season long. His performance will progress to the mean. When it does it’s going to make the Yankees offense even more potent.
It’s not just his batting average that’s going to improve. Every facet of his offensive game is likely going to experience a significant uptick as the season goes on. Stanton will get more hits, draw more walks and hit for more power. That’s a scary thought when you consider how well the likes of Didi Gregorius and Aaron Judge are already hitting the ball.
The key for Stanton will be how well he’s hitting the ball when the weather turns cold in September and October. If he can carry his momentum into the game’s most tense period, the Yankees could easily win another World Series championship.
2. Mookie Betts will cool off
It’s entirely possible that Mookie Betts is the hottest hitter in baseball at the moment. He’s been on an absolute tear to start the season. Betts has already generated an astounding 2.3 oWAR for the Red Sox in just 30 games.
He can’t keep this pace up for an entire season. The idea that he’ll finish the season with a batting average of .355 and an OPS of 1.252 is just too much to believe. Unlike Stanton, you can expect Betts’ statistics to regress to the mean.
That doesn’t mean he isn’t going to have a great season. He’ll still finish the year with excellent numbers. Betts may even be a legitimate AL MVP candidate when the season is done and dusted.
It’s also possible that he will undergo a prolonged slump. He’s a talented hitter but there’s a reason he only hit .264 one season ago. Betts isn’t the most talented hitter in MLB. That’s the way he’s playing at the moment, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll finish the season in that vein.
1. Luis Severino is an ace
The biggest advantage Boston has held over New York in recent years has been at the top of their rotation. The emergence of Luis Severino as a legitimate ace for the Yankees goes a long way towards narrowing that gap for the Yankees.
Watching Severino this season has been an absolute pleasure for Yankee fans. He’s dominated opposing hitters with his dominant fastball. Severino continues to be one of the hardest throwing starters in all of MLB.
The combination of his sizzling fastball and dominant off-speed stuff has hitters really struggling to square the ball up against him. In fact, the opposition is only hitting .172 against Severino to date. That’s helped power him to a 5-1 mark with a minuscule ERA of just 2.11.
Next: 5 bold predictions for the rest of the Yankees season
Severino may not stay quite this dominant for the full season, but don’t expect his performance to regress much. There’s nothing flukish about the way he’s pitching at the moment. He’s high on confidence and stuff. That combination will continue to make him one of the best pitchers in the game for the foreseeable future. Severino’s emergence as a true ace is the number one reason the Yankees will overtake the Red Sox this season.