After a quarter of regular season play, here are 15 early season predictions for the Western Conference.
This is a continuation of the early season predictions series that was published on opening night. 15 predictions for the Eastern Conference can be found here.
Denver Nuggets finish in the bottom half of the league defensively
Before the season, Denver was predicted to be among the inner circle of Western Conference contenders. The defensive end of the floor was and has been the concern for every iteration of the Nikola Jokic Denver Nuggets, including this season so far. Maybe the question — rather than can the Nuggets become an elite defensive team — is can they be so elite on offense that it negates their poor defense?
A quarter of the way through the season, Denver is the third-best offense and 27th-best defense — a decent decline from their median defensive finish the last three seasons. The Nuggets have allowed opponents 1.16 points per possession through their first 24 games, compared with 1.12 points per possession in each of the last two seasons, and 1.16 points per possession in their run to the conference finals in The Bubble.
The numbers and on-court play agree that Jokic is not the culprit of Denver’s defensive problems. Per Cleaning the Glass, Denver’s defense improves by 0.98 points per possession when Jokic is on the floor, the largest improvement among all rostered players.
Instead, the Nuggets are hemorrhaging points in bench-heavy units. This might not matter in the postseason when rosters shrink, but it could determine how favorable of a matchup they have in the first and second rounds.
Unfortunately for Nuggets fans, I don’t think they find their identity defensively in the regular season.
Minnesota Timberwolves finish as a top-10 offense and defense league-wide
The hype surrounding these Timberwolves is as high as it’s been for the franchise in almost 20 seasons when Minnesota last had any substantial postseason success.
The Timberwolves have started this season an underwhelming 11-12 with the league’s 17th-best offense and its 15th-rated defense.
Their offensive struggles have come from rebounding the ball; opponents have out-rebounded the Wolves by four percentage points on offense and defense combined (equal to roughly four extra possessions per game). Their starting group — which includes the Edwards-Gobert-Towns trio — is passable on the offensive glass, but has been well below average in securing defensive rebounds, per Cleaning the Glass. (And this lineup has played the third most possessions of any in the NBA so far, a substantial sample.)
Timberwolves starters are also turning the ball over on 19 percent of possessions, one of the worst marks of any minutes-heavy lineup. They should, and I project they will, correct these giveaways as they continue to learn how to assimilate Gobert into the mix.
But to see a Gobert-Towns frontcourt struggling on the glass should provide enough pause when projecting Minnesota as one of the conference contenders, as some may have before the season began. However, I believe in Minnesota’s talent, and I predict they’ll finish in the league’s top third on both sides of the ball once they shore up their rebounding and take care of the ball.
Oklahoma City Thunder regresses to a bottom-10 offense and remains a bottom-10 defense league-wide
Last season, the Thunder were the second-worst offense and a below-average defense. After a month-plus of play, they’ve displayed an identical defensive profile and improved their offense by seven points per 100 possessions.
How exactly have they taken such a drastic leap offensively? The Thunder haven’t turned the ball over, have taken a high percentage of their shots at the rim, and most notably, have shot well on less efficient midrange shots.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has also been playing at an All-NBA level in his fourth season with the Thunder. On a heavy 35 percent usage, he’s scoring 1.26 points per shot attempt, an elite figure among all guards so far this season, and turning the ball over at a below-average rate. He’s continued to improve his outside shot, which is currently hovering at the elite 40 percent threshold, and with it, his overall effective field-goal percentage has climbed to 57 percent.
Throughout the season, I expect Gilgeous-Alexander to continue to dominate offensively. But I don’t think his Thunder teammates will do the same.
Portland Trail Blazers finish as the NBA’s median team; with a middle-of-the-pack record, offense, and defense
After a brutal 2021-22 season, the Blazers have returned to the level they’ve been at for most of the past decade, reliably good on both ends of the ball. Damian Lillard’s shooting slump a year ago, the mounting injuries he and Jusuf Nurkic faced, and the loss of two foundational players in CJ McCollum and Larry Nancy Jr. explain why the Blazers were the fourth-worst offense and second-worst defense a year ago.
So far, they’ve improved to a mediocre level on both sides of the ball, affording opponents a point more per 100 possessions than they score themselves. The Blazers are tied for the league’s worst defensive shot profile based on the location of an opponent’s shot attempt, per Cleaning the Glass, and have been slightly unlucky with opponents making an above-average percentage of their outside attempts.
Portland is competitive, and this roster can achieve far more than the team accomplished a season ago. But I think it’s a stretch to consider Portland a playoff contender in the West given their early play on paper.
Their only hope would be Lillard’s continued healthy return and an MVP-caliber remainder of the season, which we already know he’s capable of.
Utah Jazz finish in the play-in race (seeds 7-10 in the conference) due to their above-average offense
The Jazz is the NBA’s best storyline through a month of play and it isn’t particularly close. How exactly have the Jazz become the team punching well above the weight of their preseason expectations? Simply put, their offense has been dominant.
Through 19 games (one-fifth of the season!) Utah was averaging 1.17 points per possession, which, if they were able to sustain for an entire season, would be one of the best offenses in the history of the NBA. They’ve shot the ball at an above-average rate while taking the majority of their shot attempts at the rim and from three, a clear indication of their offensive strategy from new head coach Will Hardy.
The Jazz has had some luck with their outside shot, particularly from the preferred corner attempts where they’ve shot an incredible 46 percent on 175 attempts (would be the best such team shooting percentage in NBA history). Their heavy hitters so far — Malik Beasley, Lauri Markkanen, and Kelly Olynyk — are not household names, but they all have had past success as efficient scorers at different points in their respective careers.
The unfortunate reality is that their entire offensive profile isn’t sustainable. They’ve turned the ball over at an above-average rate and have struggled to get to the line. Utah has shot 45 percent on midrange attempts. Their historic outside shooting will inevitably regress.
And yet, when you watch the Jazz play, part of their success feels authentic. Even as a mediocre defensive team, which the numbers and their play so far have confirmed, I believe their offense is potent enough to allow them to contend for the play-in tournament.
Golden State Warriors finish in the top 10 defensively and allow the fewest attempts at the rim for a second straight season
The Warriors have started slowly out of the gates after their fourth championship season in seven tries — a literal dynasty. The Warriors of last season (and other championship seasons) have an identity, one that has largely been misunderstood given they have some of the best jump shooters in the history of the sport. When the Warriors have been at their best it’s because they are an elite defensive team.
Last season, the Warriors had the NBA’s second-best defense due to a strong shot profile and an optimization of the possession game. Golden State forced turnovers on 15 percent of opponent possessions and allowed them to grab a mere 25 percent of their misses, both of which were top-10 figures, per Cleaning the Glass.
They also allowed the fewest shots at the rim and a below-average rate of attempts beyond the 3-point line, and opponents made fewer than the league average of both such attempts.
This season, the Warrior defense has regressed in both offensive rebound rate and foul rate. Golden State has allowed opponents three more free throws per 100 possessions — roughly two points per 100 possessions than they did last season. In addition, opponents are rebounding 28 percent of their missed shots — equal to another roughly two points per 100 possessions for opponents compared to the NBA’s median team.
The good news for these Warriors is that they have the league’s best defensive shot profile through 25 games. Once again, they’ve conceded the fewest shots at the rim, and now they’re forcing the second-most midrange attempts of any team. Opponents have shot an incredible 46 percent on midrange attempts, a number that will likely regress over the next two-thirds of season play.
Golden State has proven they can correct fundamental mistakes — extra fouls and missed defensive rebounds being two prime examples. Given the hot shooting and early strength of schedule, I believe the Warriors’ defense will continue to improve.
Los Angeles Clippers finish as one of the league’s worst offenses
With a third of their season nearly completed, it still feels like the true Clippers haven’t played a game. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have suited up in a total of four games together, with Leonard on a minutes restriction in all outings.
The issue for the Clippers — other than not having a firm identity with their core players — is that they’ve been unable to score the ball over the past two seasons. Yes, it does coincide with Kawhi’s absence from the team. But does his addition automatically guarantee the Clippers become an above-average offense?
I’m skeptical. Through 25 games, the Clippers were below average in three of the “Four Factors”, including being in the bottom-third of the league in turnovers and offensive rebound rate. Their subpar free-throw attempt rate will improve with the additions of Leonard and George, two of the league’s highest free-throw shooters by volume.
The question is whether the offense can find enough stability with the team’s two All-Stars back in uniform to weather a storm that could extend beyond the end of the month. The Clippers were a bad offense last season, with a mostly healthy Paul George, and I don’t see any signs of that correcting in 2022-23.
Los Angeles Lakers finish with a neutral point differential
The Lakers franchise is the most heavily scrutinized in the NBA, and maybe in all of American professional sports. Any sign of dysfunction from this team will be discussed and dissected endlessly because they’re always in the limelight.
The Lakers had a less-than-ideal start to the season, in terms of record and on-court performance. The same issues that plagued the team last season — lack of shooting, depth, and limited availability from their two stars — have been relatively familiar through 23 games.
On paper, the Lakers have a negative one-point differential with a 112 offensive rating and a 113 defensive rating. They’ve started to gain momentum on the back of elite play from Anthony Davis, and the month of December (when their schedule features more winning teams) will be telling for the direction of the team in 2023.
To start, the Lakers should focus on playing with a neutral point differential, something they did not accomplish at any point during last season. This requires either improving their offensive efficiency slightly, which doesn’t seem likely given their personnel, or reviving the elite Laker defense that one them a championship in 2020.
These Lakers force the second-fewest turnovers and foul opponents at the second-highest rate, two areas ripe for improvement defensively. And I believe they will do both and get to a neutral point differential by the end of the season, even if it’s far below the championship expectations that this franchise begins almost every season with.
Phoenix Suns finish as a top-5 offense and defense
Last season, the Suns were one of the best teams of the century — a historic combination of offense and defense that ripped through the Western Conference. Then they fell, in historic fashion, to a good, not great Mavericks team in the second round of the playoffs. That very public disappointment tested the resolve and culture of this group.
Through 24 games, any doubts about whether the Suns would recover from their historic gaffe have been answered. They’re the league’s second-best offense and sixth-best defense, with a plus-6.7 point differential. Absences from Chris Paul, Cam Johnson, and Jae Crowder make their early season play even more impressive.
One area of improvement (in a rather spotless early season resume) to highlight is the Suns’ foul differential. They’ve committed the most fouls of any team so far, and get to the line at the fourth-lowest rate. Opponents have shot 104 more free throws than the Suns have, roughly equal to a three-point advantage per game.
Given this low-hanging fruit, I believe the Suns haven’t reached their inflection point for the season, one that will catapult them into the postseason as a top-5 offense and defense.
Sacramento Kings finish as a top-10 offense and top-10 in 3-point efficiency
Sacramento basketball is back. The biggest question coming into this season is whether new head coach Mike Brown could transform an offense that scored an anemic 1.1 points per possession last season.
The pace at which that transformation has come has been astounding. The Kings have averaged 1.16 points per possession through 24 games, with a team-wide 57 percent effective field-goal percentage, per Cleaning the Glass. (That’s improvements of 45 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively.) The Kings were proficient at getting to the line last season, and so far they’ve doubled down on that strategy.
Sacramento has shifted their midrange attempts beyond the 3-point line; low-hanging fruit that is easy to implement with the right inclusion of shooters. Adding Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, and Keegan Murray has helped, and Terrence Davis’ emergence as an efficient scorer is welcome.
These changes feel very real — and sustainable enough to extend through the remainder of the season. The Kings have become one of the NBA’s best offenses, and as a result, one of its most exciting teams to watch.
Dallas Mavericks finish outside the top 10 on defense
Last season, the Mavericks were the league’s 12-best offense and its 8th-best defense, a substantive improvement in Jason Kidd’s first season as head coach.
Their defensive efficiency felt unsustainable and likely to regress. It’s difficult to put a ceiling on their offense, while already potent, with Luka Doncic in uniform. Only a handful of players have proven the ability to handle usage at the ultra level that Doncic has throughout his career (and he has reached a new level so far this season).
If I were trying to predict how successful these Mavericks will be in their remaining 50-plus games, I would try to predict how successful their defense will be.
So far, their best offensive lineups have hurt their defensive efficiency, with only Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr. compensating for their respective declines on the offensive end. Josh Green has been the best defensive player on the team by the numbers and deserves consideration for a starting role. Minutes with Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell have been proficient defensively as well, while profiled wing-stoppers Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney-Smith have regressed.
This iteration of the Maverick feels like it’s too dependent on superb offensive creation to mask its defensive weaknesses against the conference’s best teams. I believe in Luka Doncic, the vision the Mavericks have, and the path that they’re on. But I don’t believe this defense will be good enough for them to reach the Western Conference Finals again.
Houston Rockets are not the league’s worst defense
The Rockets are in the midst of the team’s biggest rebuild ever, very few signals from this team’s on-court play provide direction on where the franchise will even be next year, let alone a few years from now.
One small area of improvement that these Rockets can focus on: finishing better than last in the league on defense. A year ago, the Rockets allowed an incredible 1.18 points per possession over 82 games — the worst defensive efficiency on record since the NBA began collating and publishing play-by-play data in the 2003-04 season.
Through 24 games, the Rockets have improved slightly to 1.17 points per possession, 0.2 and 0.4 points better than Detroit and San Antonio, respectively (more on the Spurs in a minute).
This year’s Rockets team has been and will continue to be bad on defense, but they won’t finish dead last again.
Memphis Grizzlies finish in the bottom third of the league in defensive shot profile
The Grizzlies lost two of their core pieces — Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton — in free agency last summer — a change that would, at the very least, test the resolve of most groups. But the culture is so durable in Memphis that the Grizzlies haven’t missed a beat in the early part of the season.
On paper, they’re the same team — 1.15 points per possession on offense and 1.12 points per possession on defense — with a slight regression on both sides of the ball. Injury troubles are still a constant; Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant have both missed games.
If Memphis wants to be included in the inner circle of title contenders, they’ll need to improve their defensive shot profile. Through 24 games, the Grizzlies have afforded opponents the 22nd-best set of attempts in the league, per Cleaning the Glass. Opponents take nearly 73 percent of their shots at the rim or from beyond the 3-point line.
There’s a stark difference between the shot diet afforded by Grizzlies’ defense and those of the NBA’s best teams; such as Milwaukee, 62 percent of afforded attempts at the rim and from outside combined; Boston, 60 percent; and Golden State, 61 percent. If Memphis can shift some of these looks to 2-point shots away from the rim, that could alter the trajectory of their success.
Memphis already excels at other difficult areas of execution defensively, having limited opponent second-chance and free-throw opportunities. I believe there’s a path forward for the Grizzlies to make this leap, but it might take more growing pains before they achieve it.
New Orleans Pelicans finish with the league’s second-best offense
Offensive improvement. That’s the story of this Pelicans team, one that looks to be on a crash course for meaningful playoff basketball.
Last season, the Pelicans were an underwhelming 20th-best on offense, scoring just 1.1 points per possession. After the All-Star break, with the addition of CJ McCollum, their offense catapulted to 1.16 points per possession, a number that can be fluky when the level of competition deteriorates as playoff standings are cemented.
It appears that Pelicans’ offensive success was not fluky at all, and now they’ve added a healthy Zion Williamson to the mix as well. In 18 games this season, Zion has made the leap from efficient scorer to all-round offensive playmaker. (Even more impressive, including this season, he’s barely played more than one regular season’s worth of games in his career.)
Zion has been credited with an assist on 21 percent of his team’s field goals so far this season, one of the best marks of any player at his position, per Cleaning the Glass. In 231 possessions with Zion in the starting lineup, the Pelicans are scoring 1.2 points per possession.
The offensive chemistry of this group is real, and the numbers would suggest they’re a threat to win a conference championship. I don’t believe their defense, currently third-best overall, will sustain throughout a full season — New Orleans is allowing one of the highest opponent 3-point rates league-wide and have the lowest opponent field-goal percentage on such shots. But their offense efficiency shows they’ve firmly made the leap into playoff contention.
San Antonio Spurs finishes with the worst record in the league
There’s little to detail with these Spurs. Their eyes are fixated on the prize of a potential number one overall pick and the chance to draft one of basketball’s most sought-after prospects ever.
Fun fact: the Spurs’ opponents have a 58.6 percent effective field-goal percentage through 24 games. Through 64 games last season, Steph Curry’s effective field-goal percentage was 55.5 percent.
Let’s see if the Spurs are ultimately successful in their quest.