We’re edging closer and closer to draft season. How is the 2023 NBA Draft picture shaping up?
We’re in the meat of the college basketball season and the 2023 NBA Draft picture is starting to take form. There are still plenty of unknowable variables and inevitable surprises at play, but we’re leaving small sample sizes behind and starting to understand who each prospect is as a player.
The same can be said for the NBA teams. The early-season flashes in the pan have come and gone. The contenders have, with the exception of some Western Conference head-scratchers, separated themselves from the pack. We know which teams are trending in the right direction and which teams desperately need a reset (and potentially some draft-night magic).
Who gets picked in the first round of our 2023 NBA Mock Draft?
We have once again determined the lottery order via Tankathon simulation, to capture the spirit of everyone’s favorite ping-pong ball shuffler. You can read our last mock draft right here, which happened to feature the Washington Wizards lucking into a particular French big man with the No. 1 pick.
As always, it’s impossible to account for the months of film and narrative advancement yet to come. As we move closer to June, we will get a better sense of what teams are thinking and which prospects are rising and falling in the eyes of NBA talent evaluators. For now, however, this is mostly an amalgamation of team fit and my personal evaluation of each prospect.
You can read our top-60 prospect rankings, irrespective of team fit, right here!
Brice Sensabaugh has been one of the most productive freshmen in college basketball. His unique scoring package and penchant for difficult shot-making will no doubt appeal to NBA teams. That said, defensive concerns keep him toward the back of the first round for now.
A bigger guard with an excellent sense of tempo, Jalen Hood-Schifino would give the Grizzlies another source of points and assists in the backcourt. He relies on difficult shots a little too often at times, but his slippery handles and feather-soft touch warrant optimism.
The Hornets took a massive step back this season, but there’s still an onus to compete sooner than later due to LaMelo Ball’s obvious stardom. Reece Beekman is one of the best perimeter defenders in college basketball and would fit nicely next to LaMelo in the Charlotte backcourt, which could be in need of reinforcements soon with Terry Rozier cycling through the trade rumor mill.
A talented 6-foot-8 playmaker who has cut his teeth against professional competition in the Adriatic League, it won’t be hard for the right NBA team to convince themselves of gambling on Durisic in the first round — especially the Jazz, who own several first-round picks and could be in the market for a potential draft-and-stash.
Noah Clowney has seen his stock skyrocket lately. A versatile 6-foot-10 athlete with excellent timing and competitiveness on defense, he would fill a need for the one-way Rockets. He needs to get more consistent from 3-point range, but Clowney’s shot looks good.
The Nets get important 3-and-D help in the frontcourt. Taylor Hendricks is the quintessential modern 4, possessing the quickness to guard on the perimeter when needed and excellent instincts as a weak-side rim protector. He can comfortably feast on spot-up 3s working off of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Ben Simmons.
The Pacers have several first-round picks and would be wise to swing at upside. Dillon Mitchell is a top one-percent athlete in this draft, and while he hasn’t quite found his stride at the collegiate level, such an explosive wing carries plenty of long-term upside.
Jordan Hawkins is one of the most prolific 3-point shooters in college basketball. Naturally, that should attract the Lakers, who have done an unforgivably poor job of stationing shooters around LeBron James the last couple seasons.
A potential Swiss Army Knife who brings excellent size and athleticism to the wing, Leonard Miller would make a great deal of sense for a New York team in need of connective tissue offensively and defensively.
The Kings get Colby Jones, who projects as an absolute winner at the next level. He competes on both sides of the ball and possesses the kind of unselfish demeanor contenders covet. And, well, the Kings look very much like contenders lately.
A French wing by way of Australia, Rayan Rupert has tantalized NBA talent evaluators with his length and dynamism on the defensive end. A mobile wing with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, Rupert can bottle up ball handlers at the point of attack and wreak havoc in passing lanes. He would be well-suited to Miami’s unique team identity and player development program.
The Knicks get size and skill at the 4-spot with Kris Murray, twin brother of last season’s No. 4 pick Keegan Murray. In the midst of a breakout season remarkably similar to his brother’s breakout last season, Murray’s ability to splash 3s and attack the rim with long strides and feather-soft touch will no doubt appeal to NBA teams.
It still feels unlikely that Myles Turner will spend his future with the Pacers, even with the team’s sooner-than-expected pivot toward contention. Indy has several promising frontcourt players behind Turner, but it wouldn’t be hard for DaRon Holmes to make his presence felt as a rim protector and lob threat.
GG Jackson, the youngest player on the board, continues to produce impressive numbers at South Carolina. A powerful 6-foot-9 athlete with diverse shot-making potential, a number of teams should be taken with Jackson’s sky-high potential.
A hyper-skilled big who can space the floor, handle the rock, and make advanced passing reads, Kyle Filipowski is practically tailor-made for the Warriors’ complex offense. He needs to prove he can handle the defensive burdens of NBA basketball, but there’s a path to immediate NBA minutes for Filipowski as a floor-spacer and play-connector offensively.
If we were to graph Maxwell Lewis’ current trajectory in classic linear fashion, it would probably resemble the letter ‘I’. Teams are going to fall head over heels for his blend of size, skill, and shot-making on the wing. The Clippers have always valued multi-faceted wing players in Lewis’ vein.
The Hawks have been shooting themselves in the foot all season, starting with the summer decision to trade Kevin Huerter for ~cap reasons~. Well, it turns out that Huerter’s blend of shooting and secondary playmaking is quite valuable. Enter the replacement, Gradey Dick.
Putting together an impressive freshman season at Kansas, Dick is on the fast track to lottery consideration. He’s shooting the light outs for the Jayhawks (43.9 percent on 6.0 attempts per game), but he’s much more than a standstill shooter. Dick has proven quite nifty as a cutter, with the size and athleticism to effectively fill the lane and finish acrobatically at the rim. He can also whip some beautiful passes.
He will have some work to do to bulk up defensively, but Dick also profiles better than most shooting specialists on that end thanks to his size. At 6-foot-7, he competes on both sides of the ball and doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses.
The Hawks have two elite playmakers helming the offense in Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, perhaps the perfect set-up for a player of Dick’s ilk. He can slide right into the Huerter role, flying around screens, burying 3s, and making crisp passing reads.
Dariq Whitehead joined Duke as one of the most accomplished, well-rounded recruits in the nation. He was pitched as the lottery’s “high floor” guy due to his defensive toughness, enticing physical tools, and well-rounded skill set. After a bumpy start to the season — no doubt influenced by his recovery from a fractured foot, which caused him to miss time early in the campaign — we’re starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
His efficiency has been slightly troublesome so far, but Whitehead is starting to put the pieces together and look more like the player we expected coming out of high school. He’s making more contested shots and showcasing his impressive finishing ability at the rim. He’s elevating through contact and looking the part of a high-level downhill driver.
Whitehead can operate with or without the ball, with a long enough track record of shooting from 3-point range to offset concerns about his middling numbers at Duke up to this point. He plays unselfish basketball and would fit right into Utah’s pass-friendly, movement-heavy offense.
The Jazz have several first-round picks. If there’s one weakness on the current roster, it’s a lack of size and versatility on the wing outside of Lauri Markkanen, who could be moving to the 4 spot if Jarred Vanderbilt is dealt at the trade deadline.
Jett Howard has been one of college basketball’s most pleasant surprises. The son of Michigan head coach Juwan Howard, it didn’t take Jett long to carve out his role and cement his status as one of the top freshmen in college basketball. In a league built on size, versatility, and shooting, Howard checks every box.
The Suns currently have something of a void in the frontcourt. Jae Crowder is away from the team, they appear very hesitant to pay Cam Johnson, and injuries have ravaged Phoenix all year. Jett Howard could slide immediately into an important 3-and-D role for a Phoenix team that still has competitive aspirations.
With picturesque shooting mechanics and impressive 3-point efficiency (38.8 percent on 7.2 attempts per game), Howard should stick around at the next level on the strength of his floor spacing alone. But he’s not just a shooter with size. Howard has flashed real juice creating for himself off the dribble, frequently getting downhill and creating advantages off of his shooting gravity.
Howard isn’t the best defender on the board, but he’s strongly built and he competes hard every night. The effort level and desire to contribute within a team context exist, so it’s a smart bet that he will nail down the fundamentals in time.
The talented 6-foot-9 wing from Alabama has set the college basketball world on fire. Brandon Miller has been arguably the most productive freshman to date, quickly rising up draft boards and cementing himself in the lottery conversation.
Some very smart people have Miller in the top five, and there’s every chance he reaches that point come summertime. Not many players possess Miller’s blend of size, fluidity, and shot-making upside. He’s drilling 45.7 percent of his 7.3 attempts per game from deep and there have been intriguing passing flashes for good measure.
So, why does Miller fall to No. 11? Well, there are some underlying concerns — mainly related to processing speed and efficiency inside the arc, where his paper-thin frame and loose handle can be problematic. He should get stronger will time, though, and there’s plenty of reason to buy the adventurous playmaking upside.
As for OKC, it’s an appropriate upside swing for one of the league’s youngest teams. The Thunder already have multiple quality playmaking engines, so Miller’s role early in his career would be appropriately streamlined.
Anthony Black is next in the increasingly long line of big, connective-tissue guards who are bound to infatuate NBA decision-makers. Two easy points of comparison are Lonzo Ball, former Pelican, and Dyson Daniels, current Pelican. New Orleans, currently saddled with a superstar creator (Zion Williamson) and two other All-Star playmakers in Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum, needs players who can impact winning without dominating possessions.
Black has shown the ability to thrive in just about any role. He’s not going to prodigiously create his own points, but he’s a competent shooter and slasher who can make every pass in the book. He’s comfortable operating out of pick-and-rolls, he’s great at kickstarting transition opportunities, and his 5G processing speed is bound to grease the wheels for whichever offense he joins.
At 6-foot-7, Black is going to inhale rebounds better than most “guards” and he should be able to guard several positions based on need. Not many players in the draft think the game as well as Black, which should instantly endear him to lottery teams ready to contend.
It’s hard to have too many players like Black. The Pelicans have no shortage of talent in the backcourt, but it shouldn’t be hard to find minutes for the 19-year-old interspersed between and alongside the likes of Ingram, McCollum, and Daniels.
The Raptors have been maybe the most disappointing team in the NBA this season. It would appear that their emphasis on long and versatile athletes has reached its logical conclusion: plenty of disruptive and positionally malleable defenders, but not nearly enough offensive punch to make noise in the crowded Eastern Conference.
Keyonte George is the kind of player Toronto should be on the lookout for, especially with Fred VanVleet’s production plummeting. George’s slippery handles and dynamic self-creation would be right at home in the Raptors’ backcourt. He takes a lot of 3s, he can collapse the defense regularly, and there are enough passing flashes to suggest that he can develop into more than a spark-plug scorer.
George is on the shortlist of best iso scorers in the draft, possessing the blend of touch and craft that defines so many of the NBA’s best bucket-getters. He’s equal parts shifty and precise, constantly forcing his defenders off-balance before slipping to the rim or burying the pull-up jumper. Toronto just needs more juice offensively, especially if they’re in the market to trade OG Anunoby.
It’s not like George is a complete affront to Masai Ujiri’s team-building principles either. He’s built like a tank and plays spirited defense against either guard spot. He’s ready to contribute straight away and would be a strong foundational piece, whether the Raptors blow it up or not.
The Wizards’ looming commitment to Kyle Kuzma could complicate the matter, but not really. Jarace Walker is going to change the trajectory of whichever team drafts him for the better. A wrecking-ball athlete who could be the best defender of his class, Walker is tailor-made for the NBA’s modern defensive landscape.
Walker’s physical dimensions are immediately tantalizing. He’s 6-foot-8, blessed with 240 pounds of muscle and a gaping 7-foot-2 wingspan. He moves with the elegance and fluidity of a player five inches shorter, but he possesses the strength and dogged determination to battle the NBA’s strongest players in the post.
One of the few true 5-position defenders on paper, Walker would provide Washington with a much-needed defensive backbone. He can mirror guards on the perimeter, he can hang around the paint and stifle shot attempts at the rim, or he can switch freely around the court. And then, there’s his offensive potential.
Walker doesn’t have the look of an offensive star at first glance, but he has the kind of frame and skill set that has already drawn Julius Randle comps. He can obliterate defenders with power in the paint, displaying impressive footwork and advanced touch on shots around the rim. A quick processor and solid passer for his size, Walker can operate as a playmaking hub at the elbow or dish to teammates regularly on rolls to the rim.
The Magic have quietly stacked their roster with quality prospects at every position. Orlando’s frontcourt is notably crowded, but frankly, we should probably be talking just as much about the backcourt. With Markelle Fultz taking firm hold of the starting point guard spot, Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs — two lottery-level talents — have been relegated to bench roles. Not to mention R.J. Hampton, a once exciting prospect who feels like an afterthought now.
So, Orlando could have to look in the mirror and make some difficult personnel decisions soon. A consolidation trade feels inevitable, if not imminent. When it comes to the 2023 NBA Draft, however, it would be hard to pass on a prospect like Cason Wallace, who could emerge very quickly as the Magic’s best ball-handler.
Wallace is next in the increasingly long line of prodigious Kentucky guards with clearly translatable NBA skill sets. Wallace is a menace at the point of attack and one of the most impactful perimeter defenders in college basketball, using his pterodactyl wingspan and preternatural instincts to wreak havoc in passing lanes.
An efficient shooter who can play a variety of roles offensively, Wallace would fit very well on paper with Orlando’s star wings, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes and, while he doesn’t have the self-creation juice of some of his lottery contemporaries, Wallace is capable of breaking down the defense and exploiting those breakdowns.
The Spurs should have a reasonable amount of confidence in Tre Jones, but it’s Best Player Available at this stage in the draft. Therefore it’s Nick Smith Jr., the twitchy offensive engine from Arkansas, who gets the nod here at No. 6.
Injuries are piling up for Smith this season — knee maladies have held him to just five appearances for the Razorbacks. That will naturally taint his draft stock and his ultimate position on draft night could come down to NBA medical evaluations. But, for now, he sticks in the top half of the lottery on the strength of his obvious talent.
And man, is that talent obvious. Smith just oozes touch offensively. His jumper looks pure, and while the 3-point efficiency has wavered at times, Smith’s effortless floaters and success inside the arc provide a strong foundation for optimism. At 6-foot-5, he has great size for the point guard spot while displaying impressive balance, craft, and the ability to change speeds on a dime.
San Antonio has two great wing prospects in Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson, but Smith would take that young core to the next level. He has the potential to become the driving force behind Gregg Popovich’s offense and the kind of player who elevates everyone around him.
The Pistons have their backcourt of the future locked up with Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, so that takes the likes of Smith and Wallace off the board. Instead, it’s the mega-athlete on the wing, Cam Whitmore from Villanova, who joins the Pistons in the No. 5 slot.
There are quite a few uniquely impressive athletes in the 2023 draft, but none can really match Whitmore’s power and explosiveness at the rim. He’s built like a tank, with the ability to obliterate smaller defenders en route to the basket and elevate in ways that make one question what exactly their high school physics teacher was going on about.
At 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot wingspan and 232 pounds of muscle, Whitmore possesses an extremely high floor as a multi-positional wing defender and play finisher. He can space the floor, convert prolifically off cuts to the rim, and he will cover a lot of ground defensively. The Pistons are probably hoping to make the leap sooner than later with Cade in the driver’s seat, so Whitmore’s immediate fit should appeal to them.
That’s not to say Whitmore doesn’t have his share of star potential, though. Players who can get to the rim like him are naturally going to collapse the defense and draw contract on a regular basis. He needs to get more consistent with his jumper, especially if he wants to one day become a reliable go-to scorer on the perimeter, but the physical tools are available in spades.
It can be easy for Ausar Thompson to flicker and fade next to the spotlight on his brother Amen, but frankly, that shouldn’t be the case. He is perhaps not quite the athlete Amen is, but we’re still talking about a top-2 percentile kind of athlete in the NBA. Thompson can bend space and time attacking the rim or gunning ahead of the defense in transition.
For Charlotte, this is easily the most natural fit on the board. Thompson would thrive next to LaMelo Ball in a transition-oriented offense. He’s an excellent playmaker who sees the floor and processes the game as well as any 20-year-old on the board. There will be an adjustment going from the low level of competition in Atlanta’s Overtime Elite league to the NBA, but Thompson has all the indicators of a future star.
Just speaking in terms of raw entertainment value, it’s hard to complain about either of the Thompson brothers ending up in Charlotte. With Ausar, however, the Hornets are getting the more proven defender and a legitimate stopper on the perimeter, something the team has desperately lacked for what feels like the last half-decade at least.
The biggest hurdle for Thompson at the next level will be his 3-point shot, which can still falter at times. He’s a deadly slasher and an impressively well-rounded contributor, but his hypothetical partnership with LaMelo won’t flourish completely unless he develops into a reliable spot-up shooter.
Houston has invested quite heavily in the backcourt duo of Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr., not just financially but also in terms of play style and personnel moves. It took a year and a half for Alperen Sengun to become the offensive focal point he’s meant to be, largely because of the team’s borderline inexcusable laser-focus on the backcourt.
Enter Amen Thompson, who to speak plainly is a much better point guard prospect than Kevin Porter Jr., the latter of whom feels much more like a sixth man anyways. Thompson accentuates Green quite helpfully as a 6-foot-7 multi-positional defender who makes a point to involve his teammates.
Thompson’s advanced processing speed and off-the-charts athleticism would no doubt perk up Houston’s steadily improving offense. Between him and Green, defenses would have a lot of trouble keeping the Rockets out of the paint. Then there’s Sengun, the kind of heliocentric playmaking big who can elevate his backcourt mates by way of passing and screen-setting. It’s a fun trio to build around.
The Rockets have some interesting talent, but it’s hard to express genuine confidence in the current direction of the rebuild. A player of Thompson’s caliber changes the equation. He would immediately take over as the team’s primary creator and best two-way asset.
Another positively nutty athlete, Scoot Henderson has strengthened his grip on the projected No. 2 slot with an impressive return to action for the G-League Ignite. Listed at 6-foot-2, Henderson plays much bigger than his size thanks to his 6-foot-9 wingspan and his unique ability to detonate above the rim.
The Bulls are stuck in no man’s land right now, the worst place to be in terms of roster-building. They’re too good to tank, but nowhere near good enough to genuinely compete. And, if we’re to believe the current reporting, it doesn’t look like Chicago plans to tear it down at the trade deadline. What a blessing this outcome would be on lottery night.
Just like that, the Bulls suddenly have direction. Henderson would provide a stable bridge between the present and the future — a ready-made playmaking engine and potential Rookie of the Year candidate who can sustain Chicago beyond the Zach LaVine-DeMar DeRozan era, whenever that inevitably ends.
Henderson is impossible to keep out of the paint, he’s quite daring in his willingness to attack the defense, and he’s equally capable of stretching the defense out with his pull-up jumper. Shot selection can bite Henderson every now and then, but he’d probably have to clean that up quickly if he’s sharing the court with the likes of LaVine and DeRozan.
I’m pretty sure the Blazers would throw a parade on lottery night if this happened. With a couple lucky bounces of a ping pong ball, the currently directionless Blazers suddenly have direction. Rather than toiling away in mediocrity, Damian Lillard suddenly has what appears to be a legitimate, day-one star teammate. Wembanyama projects as arguably the most impactful offensive and defensive player on the board.
Once considered mostly a play finisher and spot-up shooter, Wembanyama has progressed into the realm of comically competent self-creation. At 7-foot-5, he’s snaking through screens off the dribble, hitting movement 3s, and bringing the ball up the court Jokic-style before initiating the offense. He’s the créme de la créme in France, and he would probably join that same tier sooner than later in the NBA.
The two-man actions between Lillard and Wemby would quickly become must-watch television. Meanwhile, you’d have the potential for an elite defensive tandem in the frontcourt with Jerami Grant, who complements Wembanyama’s rim protection quite well. There’s also Anfernee Simons, who unlike Lillard fits snuggly with Wembanyama’s expected timeline. The Blazers would be built for now and later.
It would take borderline unthinkable circumstances for Wembanyama to lose his grip on the No. 1 spot, no matter who gets the pick. The Blazers just happen to have a glaring need at center given Jusuf Nurkic’s age and injury history. It’s a dream outcome for Portland fans after what’s shaping up to be a frustrating season.