Let’s assess all possible outcomes of the dramatic Lamar Jackson-Baltimore Ravens situation.
One way or another, Lamar Jackson is about to get paid, but it remains to be seen whether that will be by the Baltimore Ravens or somebody else entirely.
Jackson is about to enter year six in the NFL after a stellar collegiate career at Louisville. He has won a league MVP and is Louisville’s only Heisman Trophy winner to date. Given that he was a former first-round pick by the Ravens in 2018, Jackson was afforded the fifth-year option. He got it, and actually played it out. From here, Jackson can go one of three ways entering the offseason.
Let’s discuss if it is better for Jackson to be extended, to be franchise tagged or to even be traded.
Table of Contents
- Introduction: Let’s keep kicking this can down the road because that is what we are doing.
- Page 2: Let’s make a deal and bet on ourselves. Isn’t a public divorce just utterly fantastic?
- Page 3: Let’s stay together for the kids, make this thing work and win some championships.
Ranking all the possible outcomes of the Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens saga
3. Baltimore Ravens use the franchise tag on Lamar Jackson
To be totally honest, this is the most likely outcome, but that does not mean it is best for both parties long-term. Baltimore is too well-run of an organization to let Jackson walk away for nothing. Given the challenges that have resulted from Jackson representing himself, the franchise tag is not going to be a preferable option for either party, especially with the quarterback himself.
It serves Baltimore to use the non-exclusive franchise tag to allow Jackson to negotiate with other teams for a potential trade. Going the exclusive franchise tag route could come back to haunt the Ravens’ brass if Jackson straight-up refuses to play. Either way, Jackson will get a nice bump in pay by getting the average annual salaries of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL entering next year.
Of course, having Jackson play on the tag in Baltimore will only bring us back to the same situation again next year, assuming nothing drastically changes. In short, Jackson is going to be tagged, but it remains to be seen how the Ravens will want to go about playing hardball. Tagging Jackson may help him get traded, but not every team in the mix for him can trade for him before the NFL Draft.
The New Orleans Saints and his hometown Miami Dolphins must recoup some draft capital first.
2. Baltimore Ravens end up trading Lamar Jackson to another NFL franchise
This only comes about after the Ravens use the non-exclusive franchise tag on Jackson. It would result in a $32.4 million tender for Baltimore. It would allow Jackson to negotiate with teams that possess their own first-round pick. Those teams would include the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans and Washington Commanders.
To be frank, this may be exactly what Jackson wants, should he want out of town… He wants a five-year deal, but Baltimore is not apparently willing to give him the one he wants. Jackson would have a robust market, as nearly a quarter of the league is unsettled at quarterback long-term. Jackson would solve the issue, but even if he is in his mid-20s, his style of play may not age gracefully.
While this tactic is good for Jackson (obviously) and good for the Ravens, in theory, as they would be able to recoup precious draft capital, including compensatory picks, this could totally blow up in the trade partner’s face. Whether it be players or future draft capital, these quarterback-desperate teams would be hitching their wagon to Jackson. This is a dangerous game they would be playing.
Ask yourself this one important question: How many of these trade partners are well-run teams?
1. Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson agree to a multi-year extension
In a perfect world, Jackson would be a year or so into his multi-year extension with the Ravens. Getting the extension he coveted would have him playing in Baltimore for the rest of his prime. More importantly, Jackson staying put would give the Ravens a true face of the franchise to build around for the rest of the decade. Stability is how these well-run organizations remain well-run.
However, a five-year deal to both parties’ liking seems farfetched at this point. They could meet halfway with a three-or-four-year deal, but we are not willing to put five on it just yet. Both the Ravens’ brass and Jackson have a job to do. Unfortunately, they may want slightly different things in this. Staying together would serve both parties, but time is of the essence during this offseason.
Look. Baltimore is not going to give Jackson what the hopelessly dysfunctional Cleveland Browns gave to Deshaun Watson, even though Jackson is the more accomplished and far superior player in division. It sucks, I know, but Baltimore is not going to make a huge mistake because somebody else did. Huge mistakes will never be en vogue when it comes to sustaining any well-run business.
Even with the help of the franchise tag, it does not feel like any five-year extension will be coming.