Here’s a look back to our 2022-23 NBA preseason predictions, and how each Western Conference team performed against our expectations.
At the beginning of this season, we offered some statistically inclined predictions for every team in the Western Conference. With the regular season concluded, we’re assessing how we did.
Prediction: Denver Nuggets finish in the bottom half of the league defensively
The Nuggets are worse defensively this season, according to the numbers, but team defense league-wide has regressed so their relative ranking improved compared to a season ago. This season, they allowed opponents 1.14 points per possession, which ranks as the 17th-best defense in the association, per Cleaning the Glass. Last season, they limited opponents to 1.12 points per possession, which was the 15th-best defensive rating.
Given that this was a relative prediction, it was technically incorrect, but the premise behind it was sound. The Nuggets are the West’s number-one overall seed and the favorite to advance to the NBA Finals in June. But, should they be given how inept their defense is and has been over the past few seasons?
Denver has a stronger home-court advantage given the city’s altitude and lower oxygen levels; they’ve been the fifth-best defense in the NBA at home, allowing only 1.11 points per possession in these games, per Cleaning the Glass.
If the Nuggets can continue to dominate at home, maybe it’ll be sufficient for them to reach their first NBA Finals. It will be worth noting how Michael Malone handles defense with a standard-shortened postseason roster, given they will need to perform on that end to advance.
Grade: C+
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves finish as a top-10 offense and defense league-wide
Few would have predicted that this team would be great defensively but struggle mightily on the offensive end. The Timberwolves are a difficult team to diagnose because of their inconsistency. Injuries, like losing Karl-Anthony Towns for most of the season, explain some of it — along with the general roster overhaul that came as part of the Rudy Gobert trade.
Last season, the Wolves were strong offensive rebounders, took care of the ball, and upped their looks at the free-throw line. This season, they’ve been in the bottom third of the league in each category, their lackluster offense only sustained from overall efficient shooting as a team.
Should we consider this one year a blip for a team with otherwise strong offensive expectations going forward? It remains to be seen, but I would bet on the Wolves returning to the form they showed on that end of the floor in the 2021-22 season. If they’re able to solidify their offense to pair with a defense built around Rudy Gobert, they should be a tough out in the West for the next couple of seasons.
Grade: D
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder regresses to a bottom-10 offense and remains a bottom-10 defense league-wide
Oklahoma City has impressed this season, enough to believe that their relative success against consensus expectations of another mediocre season is anything but fluky.
As the league’s 16th-best offense and defense, this latest rendition of Thunder basketball is officially in the throws of competitive basketball. Their strongest advantage has come in the possession battle, where they turn the ball over on 4 percent fewer of their possessions than opponents do. These extra possessions equate to a six-point advantage for Oklahoma City, the largest such differential in the NBA.
Oklahoma City does drain some of those points back to opponents through offensive rebounds and free-throw attempts; their defense is among the worst in both categories, per Cleaning the Glass. The Thunder were an average team in transition this season, even off of steals. If they can improve their efficiency on takeaways, they’ll further maximize their offensive efficiency.
Their offensive efficiency is below average, but there are encouraging signs to expect further growth next season. They take the third-most attempts at the rim rather than settling for long jump shots, but shoot the worst percentage of any team on these looks. Even a marginal improvement finishing around the rime will bode tremendously for their offense.
The Thunder made improved strides this season that displayed how versatile their young talent is. While they won’t likely make any noise in the postseason this spring, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them take another step forward next year.
Grade: C-
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers finish as the NBA’s median team; with a middle-of-the-pack record, offense, and defense
This is the biggest miss on the board, even if my prediction wasn’t a resoundingly strong vote of confidence for the Blazers to begin with.
Damian Lillard had statistically the best season of his career, and still, the Blazers underachieved in a fashion that left most of the basketball world scratching its head.
Portland was average on offense — it took Lillard’s dominance to keep them afloat on that end. The only areas of the game that Portland excelled at were making tough shots and getting to the free-throw line, both marks ranked in the upper half of the league.
Defensively, there were no silver linings for this group. The Blazers finished as the league’s fourth-worst defense, affording opponents 1.19 points per possession. They ranked in the bottom-third of the league in opponent offensive rebounding, opponent free-throw rate, and limiting opponent possessions on turnovers. Opponents shot far above league average against the Blazers, which was partly due to tough outside shooting luck.
Portland once again finds itself outside the play-in race and postseason contention. Were they to improve their defense they could find themselves finishing as a median NBA team, but it’s worth questioning if that’s something to strive for.
Grade: F
Prediction: Utah Jazz finish in the play-in race (seeds 7-10 in the conference) due to their above-average offense
While the Jazz missed the play-in tournament, their offense proved to be legitimate beyond the stretch of hot play that began their season. The Jazz averaged 1.16 points per possession on 55 percent shooting, the tenth-best mark in the league. They were able to supplement their average overall efficiency with second-chance opportunities and extra attempts at the free-throw line.
While they’ll miss the postseason entirely, the Jazz has the foundation of a legitimate NBA offense that they can point to for the future. Lauri Markkanen’s improvement and Walker Kessler’s emergence as an interior threat bode well for a team that started the season without an identity.
Grade: B
Prediction: Golden State Warriors finish in the top 10 defensively and allow the fewest attempts at the rim for a second straight season
The Warriors are as perplexing a team as has existed in the modern NBA. When they have it rolling, they look like the dynastic team that has dominated the NBA for a near decade. But there are nights, particularly on the road, where they haven’t looked anything but dominant.
Since their ability to win games this season has been determined by whether it was located at Chase Center or not, let’s look at their defensive home-road splits. At home, the Warriors are the third-best defense, allowing opponents a mere 1.08 points per possession, according to Cleaning the Glass. That number jumps by 0.12 points per possession on the road, the third-worst road defense in the entire NBA. No matter how well the Warriors play defensively at home, the Warriors aren’t qualifying as a top-10 defense this season.
Overall, they are the stingiest rim defense in the league, affording opponents these looks on just 25 percent of possessions. That figure only dips to 32 percent on the road, good for the sixth-lowest rim frequency among all teams, per Cleaning the Glass. The big difference between their home and road difference is the surge in allowed 3-point attempts on the road, where opponents are shooting 40 percent on such attempts. It could be that the Warriors are just unlucky in these situations, which may regress in the postseason.
Regardless, if the Warriors are still limiting opponent shots at the rim and at full strength, they’re tough competition when the lights are shining brightest.
Grade: B+
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers finish as one of the league’s worst offenses
After nearly a third of the season, I felt confident to make this prediction based on the Clippers’ early season offense, and it turned out to be correct.
The Clippers were the 22nd-best offense this season, shot 55 percent from the field as a team, and never truly rebounded from their early season slump. Part of this prediction centered around their lack of availability, mainly from their two offensive engines, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Leonard missed the start of the season, and George dealt with minor injuries, including his current knee issue for which he has no timetable for return.
As a team, they were average or worse in shot-making, taking care of the ball, and securing offensive rebounds. Their only salvation came from maximizing trips to the free-throw line, largely driven by their starting group. They’ve been able to maintain this strength without George, but how far it can take them in the postseason remains to be seen.
Grade: A
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers finish with a neutral point differential
Predicting mediocrity isn’t fun, but I felt so confident about this one. The liveliest debate in the NBA this season has surrounded the Lakers’ chances of competing for a championship, they are the answer to the question “What would happen if you put two elite players around a neutral supporting cast?”
To be fair, the Lakers have played better since they overhauled their roster at the trade deadline, and they have legitimate threats aside from Anthony Davis and LeBron James, Austin Reaves being the most consistent.
But, this team as a whole is largely trying to stay afloat. They finished the season with a +0.4 point differential, which, while positive, doesn’t necessarily substantiate their desire to win another championship. That’s not to say it isn’t possible, we’ve seen LeBron James accomplish nearly every feat throughout his storied career. I just wouldn’t bet on it.
Grade: A-
Prediction: Phoenix Suns finish as a top-5 offense and defense
The love for this Suns team was a little too hot, no pun intended. While there was reason to be optimistic about their capability early on in the season, the recent addition of Durant certainly makes them a threat capable of mobilizing as a top-5 postseason offense and defense.
The Suns finished the regular season as the 17th-best offense and 9th-ranked defense, falling short of my lofty expectations. They are elite at grabbing offensive rebounds, and forcing opponents into low-percentage shots and turnovers. They struggle with the free-throw battle and foul more than any other team, per Cleaning the Glass.
Since the addition of Durant, in an incredibly small sample size of 269 non-garbage minutes, the Suns have made the transition to an elite defensive team. Their improvements have come in limiting extra opportunities at the free-throw line and on the glass, simpler ameliorations that can result in an outsized improvement overall. Of course, Durant’s addition has also led to easier shots on the offensive end and more free-throw opportunities for the Suns, as well.
One area of note: the Suns become a much worse offensive rebounding team in Durant’s minutes, which may or may not be a real trend given the limited minutes he’s played. It’s worth monitoring how Deandre Ayton and Durant coexist, but I wouldn’t have any severe concerns if I were the Suns.
Grade: F
Prediction: Sacramento Kings finish as a top-10 offense and top-10 in 3-point efficiency
How about instead of a top-10 offense they finish as one of the greatest regular-season offensive teams in league history!
The Kings dominated on that end of the ball all season long, and showed a level of consistency that few teams in the Western Conference have matched so far this season. Not only did they finish as the league’s best offense, but they were the 13th-best outside shooting team, matching the NBA average efficiency of 37 percent.
Stylistically, how did they catapult their offense from 25th to first in just one season? They made some simple fixes, like cleaning up turnovers and putting a greater emphasis on getting to the free-throw line. But, overall, the Kings got better because they began making tough shots. They shot nearly 47 percent this season on mid-range attempts, ranking as the second-best mid-range offense, per Cleaning the Glass. They also converted on more shots at the rim, a nod to the extensive roster changes they’ve made over the past fourteen months.
Offensively, Sacramento has the chops to make serious noise in the postseason. But a first-round matchup with the Warriors requires that they commit defensively as well. It will be worth watching to see how they perform on both ends of the floor.
Grade: C
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks finish outside the top 10 on defense
Last season, the Mavericks were the eighth-best defense in the NBA, a sea change from their offense-focused mentality over the prior couple of seasons. While I thought it was clear they wouldn’t be elite on that side of the ball again, I didn’t expect the total regression that occurred.
Dallas finished as the league’s 23rd-best defense this season, allowing opponents to score 1.17 points per possession on 55 percent shooting. More specifically, the Mavericks lost the advantage they captured a season ago by limiting opponent free-throw attempts and forcing additional turnovers.
Their roster is fundamentally different from that of a season ago and Maxi Kleber’s absence this season is certainly captured in these numbers. But the Mavericks also don’t have the same fervor that they displayed in their Conference Finals run last May. Where this team will go, particularly with the impending Kyrie Irving free agency decision, remains to be seen.
Grade: A-
Prediction: Houston Rockets are not the league’s worst defense
While not the bravest prediction of the bunch, it was premised on two beliefs. First, there were other teams interested in overtly tanking for the opportunity to draft a franchise-altering player. And second, the Rockets have an interest in instilling a baseline culture of accountability in its young roster.
Well, the first belief was the difference maker and the second doesn’t appear to have been remotely correct. Both the numbers and play on-court this season suggest there’s no tangible focus on laying the groundwork for future competitive basketball.
Houston finishes as the second-worst defense, barely above the San Antonio Spurs, both of which afforded over 1.2 points per possession to opponents this season. And given that there were few bright spots of trajectory throughout the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rockets’ defense equally inept next season.
Grade: B+
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies finish in the bottom third of the league in defensive shot profile
At the time I made this prediction, Memphis’ shot profile pointed to a flaw in either their game plan or execution on the defensive end. Through 25 games, the Grizzlies were affording opponents one of the highest rates of “efficient” shot attempts, those that come at the rim and from beyond the arc.
And, as predicted, that trend continued for the full 82-game schedule. The Grizzlies finished with the 9th-worst location shot profile, according to Cleaning the Glass, allowing opponents to take 72 percent of their combined attempts at the rim and from 3-point range.
To be clear, this is not an indictment on the Grizzlies’ defense. They were the league’s second-best defense and ranked in the top 10 for the entire season. But come playoff time, even the slightest weaknesses can be exploited by talented opponents.
Memphis opponents shot the lowest rate at the rim this season, a testament to Defensive Player of the Year favorite Jaren Jackson Jr. But opponents also missed an above-average number of attempts from both the mid-range and 3-point line, indicators that the Grizzlies may have had some outsized shooting luck influence their defensive standing.
I believe that Memphis has the defensive identity to play top-notch postseason basketball, featuring maybe the best interior rim defender in Jackson Jr. and one of the better perimeter defensive stalwarts in Dillon Brooks. But, there are conference opponents who would relish the opportunity to take a high diet of shots from beyond the arc in a possible playoff matchup.
Grade: A
Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans finish with the league’s second-best offense
A big miss on a team that didn’t take the leap that most expected they would, after a strong showing in the first round of the 2022 Playoffs and a hot start to the season.
The Pelicans regressed to the league’s 18th-best offense, scoring 1.15 points per possession on 55 percent shooting. They were as injury-plagued a team as any this season — Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson played a combined 73 games. As a result, they’ll face the Lakers in the play-in tournament on Tuesday.
After two months of play, New Orleans was the league’s sixth-best offense and top-10 in securing offensive rebounds, getting to the free-throw line, and shooting efficiently from the field. After 82 games, they only maintained their above-average early-season free-throw rate. It would appear that the way to suffocate the Pelicans’ offense is to limit their attempts at the free-throw line.
Over the past month, New Orleans has the second-highest net rating as a result of their stellar defense. With Williamson officially sidelined for the start of the postseason and the Pelicans starting to play their best basketball of the season, it is defense, not offense, that will likely define the Pelicans’ season.
Grade: F
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs finishes with the worst record in the league
The Pistons own the worst record, with a 2-18 record since the start of March. The Spurs are not far behind, tied for second-worst with their division rival in Houston. All three have made extensive efforts to lose as many games as possible since the All-Star break, and with the lottery probability changes, San Antonio didn’t have further incentive to get to the absolute bottom of the league standings.
They may not have been the league’s worst team, but their play was arguably the most consistently poor throughout the season.
Grade: C+
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