Here’s a look back to our 2022-23 NBA preseason predictions, and how each Eastern Conference team performed against our expectations.
At the beginning of this season, we offered some statistically inclined predictions for every team in the Eastern Conference. With the regular season concluded, we’re assessing how we did.
Prediction: Boston Celtics finish in the top five league-wide in offense and defense
Beginning this season the way they finished last’s, the Celtics were a historic offensive team over the first two months of play with an impressive 1.2 point-per-possession offensive rating. Their 1.11 point-per-possession defense has also been among the conference and league’s best marks all season long. Boston has slipped on both ends since the All-Star break, which has allowed Milwaukee to commandeer the conference’s number-one overall seed. Should conference seeding, and its inherent home-court advantage, determine the outcome of the conference finals this stretch of play would become a point of criticism.
This preseason prediction for Boston was correct: the Celtics are the league’s fourth-best offense and its fourth-best defense, per NBA Stats. However, I’ll assign an “A-” to this prediction, since the Celtics were prognosticated to be the consensus favorite in the conference and one of the league’s best two-way teams.
Grade: A-
Prediction: Brooklyn Nets win less than 50 games in the regular season
The Nets finished with 45 wins, but that doesn’t begin to tell the story of this team and why I predicted them to fall short of lofty preseason expectations.
My prediction was based on a belief that either Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving would miss extended time for the Nets, not that both would be on different teams in the spring. However, that prediction was largely true. Aside from the roster rebuild that Brooklyn embarked upon last month, Durant and Irving still missed a combined 27 games as members of the Nets this season.
Brooklyn is still a playoff team with a talent-laden roster and some postseason experience, and there’s a possibility that they manifest a tough first-round opposition to one of the conference’s favorites. Their defensive versatility should provide them with ample schematic options to combat even the most-dynamic offensive opponents, even if they fall short of advancing.
Grade: A
Prediction: New York Knicks lose at least 50 games in the regular season
The Knicks are the first miss in a string of Eastern Conference predictions that fell flat on their face.
The big difference between this Knicks team, which greatly surpassed the 32-win mark, and last year’s 37-win team? A major offensive improvement that few teams in the modern NBA have matched. The Knicks’ offensive efficiency jumped from 1.11 points per possession last year to 1.19 points per possession this season, a jump equivalent to the difference between the best and the 27th-ranked offenses this season, per Cleaning the Glass.
In terms of the fundamentals, they doubled down on their proficiencies and shored up their weaknesses. Second-chance points have been the driving force of the Knicks’ offensive successes in all three seasons under Head Coach Tom Thibodeau. Last season, they grabbed 28 percent of their misses, which was a top-10 mark league-wide. This year, they’re grabbing 31 percent of their misses, which ranks second overall. In addition, they’re getting to the free-throw line two times more per 100 possessions than a season ago, which is also a top-10 mark.
The Knicks were a mediocre shooting team in 2021-22 and followed suit in 2022-23, with a below-league-average team effective field goal percentage. They turned the ball over at a league-average rate, which could be troublesome for a franchise with high hopes of competing in the postseason.
Even though Thibodeau is known for the defensive identity of his teams, we should recognize and credit him for embracing the offensive identity of this Knicks team.
Grade: D-
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers are a top-three defense league-wide
The Eastern Conference has dominated the league defensively, but the Central Division has shined brightest. Philadelphia has still proven to be a strong defensive outfit, allowing a mere 1.14 points per possession on 54 percent opponent shooting. Both are above the NBA average, but not sufficient to best the Boston-Milwaukee-Cleveland brass that are the leaders on that end of the floor.
The Sixers have transitioned from a defensively elite team to an offensively-focused one — an impressive redefinition given the level at which they played on both ends of the floor this season. James Harden’s consistency and availability this season are a part of the reason, but I think it has been Joel Embiid’s offensive improvement that has propelled the team’s offensive dynamism. In my opinion, his offensive efficiency is the most-compelling facet of his MVP case.
While this isn’t to say that I believe the Sixers’ viability as a postseason contender and Embiid’s recognition as the league’s Most Valuable Player will result in different outcomes than seasons prior, I do believe the probability of both is as high as it has ever been.
Finishing 10th in defense and third in offense in an even more competitive Eastern Conference may be a harbinger for these Sixers, even if I didn’t see it coming.
Grade: C-
Prediction: Toronto Raptors are a top-five defense, just behind divisional opponents in Boston and Philadelphia
Yikes. While the consensus was also high on the Raptors before the season, projecting this team to finish as a top-five defense is undoubtedly going to be my worst prediction in the East.
During the Nick Nurse era, Toronto finished fifth, second, 19th, and 10th in defense. Aside from the 2020-21 season in Tampa Bay, the Raptors have displayed a consistent ability to defend at the highest level to boost their nightly prospects against more talented teams. My thinking was that the Raptors would be able to repeat their prior success with a largely unchanged roster.
The loss of Kyle Lowry, even in his late thirties, could be responsible for some of the drop. Replacing his minutes with those of Malachai Flynn and Gary Trent Jr. isn’t ideal, but I thought that their three defensive stalwarts — OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakim — would be able to plug the holes that came from their undersized backcourt. The Raptors were, and are, elite defensively with that trio on the floor, which provides some pause in how far this outcome was from the prediction.
If Toronto added one more capable defensive guard, is it possible they make a defiant leap as a team? Or is there a very real schematic problem with this team that needs to be diagnosed? We’ll likely need to wait until next season to find out.
Grade: F
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers take at least 40 percent of their shot attempts at the rim and finish with a top-15 offense league-wide
The thinking behind this prediction is that Donovan Mitchell’s pick-and-roll creation would be a dynamic pairing with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen as lob threats. However, with Mitchell on the floor, the Cavs took fewer attempts at the rim, and one of the highest rates of long jump shots among all lineups, per Cleaning the Glass.
Garland, not Mitchell, revved the Cavaliers’ interior attack. Minutes with Garland resulted in 3 percent more attempts from the midrange and 5 percent fewer attempts from 3-point range, one of the highest disparities among all guards, per Cleaning the Glass. Given that the ball is in Mitchell’s hands — his 32 percent usage rate is the highest among all guards — more than it is in Garland’s, this trend naturally played out for Cleveland as a whole.
The Cavs took a mere 35 percent of their shots at the rim, which is below the league average. Given that the Cavaliers scored at a top-10 efficiency at the rim, there may be more emphasis to seek out these attempts in the postseason.
Grade: C
Prediction: Chicago Bulls win 40-43 games and are between the 12th and 15th-best offense and 18th and 22nd-best defense in the league.
The Bulls were (and frankly, are) the most difficult team to predict this season. Would it be surprising if they were a playoff team? Nope. Were it all to crash and burn, would we be dumbfounded? Not necessarily.
Let’s split this triple prediction into pieces and dissect them one at a time. Starting with their record, the Bulls finished at 40-42, right at the cusp of where the prediction set. But, they lost more games than the numbers would suggest. Given the spread between their offensive and defensive efficiency compared to other teams across the league, the Bulls should have won four more games than they did, the highest margin among all teams, per Cleaning the Glass. Was Chicago unlucky this season? Or just unable to finish close games?
Here is where things get murkier. Chicago ranked as the 24th-best offense and fifth-best defense in the league this season, an incredible flip from their profile last season as the 14th-best offense and 22nd-ranked defense. Defensive efficiency league-wide has dipped by more than 2 points per 100 possessions, and because the Bulls improved defensively by 1.5 points per possession their relative ranking skyrocketed.
Their defensive fundamentals are largely unchanged from last year, except they force a turnover more per game than they did a season ago. The Bulls’ secondary lineup, mainly Alex Caruso and Andre Drummond, is responsible for these extra takeaways.
Offensively, the same trend holds. The Bulls shot as efficiently, grabbed just as many offensive rebounds, and went to the free-throw line at a similar rate as last season. But, they turned the ball over on one percent more of their possessions, which defined their relative offensive regression.
Chicago’s statistical profile highlights how much the balance between offense and defense has shifted across the NBA this season, and it will be interesting to see if this trend holds up in the postseason.
Grade: D
Prediction: Detroit Pistons are a top-20 offense league-wide
Another big miss on an overly-optimistic prediction for a young team.
The Pistons are the league’s 29th-best offense, scoring a measly 1.1 points per possession. Injuries certainly played a part in the demise of the team (as did their desire to land a high draft pick this summer). But even with the loss of Cade Cunningham and most of the core rotation being sidelined since the All-Star break, this prediction missed the growth of Detroit’s young players.
Killian Hayes has remained an inefficient creator with some defensive chops. Saddiq Bey’s outside shooting has flatlined since his intriguing rookie season (now a member of the Hawks), and Jaden Ivey, while promising, is still experiencing normal rookie offensive growing pains.
In my preview, I said that these Pistons were a year away from becoming a play-in contender. Now I believe they’re a year away from being a year away.
Grade: D
Prediction: Indiana Pacers become a bottom-10 offense and remain a bottom-10 defense in the league
This one barely hit on offense and was a sure-fire hit on the defensive end. The Pacers were below league average in seven of the eight “Four Factors” on both sides of the ball, only forcing an above-average number of opponent turnovers.
And like their play on the court this season, Indiana is in a little bit of limbo as a franchise. They have some young talent with promise, have signed Myles Turner to an appropriate extension, and should retain another high draft pick this summer. While the individual aspects are all positive, there isn’t a clear projection on how it will all coalesce into a winning basketball team anytime soon. The Pacers have found opportunities in the trade market, and maybe they’ll do so again in the coming future.
If not, I don’t expect a substantial improvement next season.
Grade: A-
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks finish third in the East but win the 2023 NBA championship
The championship portion of this prediction is to be determined, but I was very wrong about how much this team would value the regular season.
If it were known in the preseason that Khris Middleton would miss 42 games, I would have been very confident that the Bucks would finish third or worse in the Eastern Conference standings. This pick was made assuming reasonable health for Milwaukee. Finishing as the one seed is a testament to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s greatness and why he’s unlike most superstars — his relentlessness and durability cannot be understated in the context of his career.
Can the Bucks win a championship with a dominant defense and a league-average offense? In their championship season, they were the seventh and tenth-best offense and defense, respectively, before ramping up to the third-best defense and tenth-best offense (of twenty teams). If this profile is any indication, Milwaukee has a historical case to be the championship favorite today.
Grade: C
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks improve their defense by at least 10 spots and are 18th or better league-wide
Another down year for an Atlanta Hawks team that can’t seem to figure out its defensive identity. The coaching turmoil and ultimate change make any Hawks prediction fraught, but this one stings given that there was little evidence to suggest a massive improvement would come.
Dejounte Murray’s addition was the catalyst for making a bold pick for an otherwise uninspiring defensive roster, but Atlanta is slightly worse defensively with him on the floor. Their disappointing defense isn’t indicative of Murray’s impact — he’s one of the better backcourt defenders in the NBA — but rather a certification of Trae Young’s infectious defensive ineptitude. Even pairing Young with a guard like Murray can’t fully provide cover for his limitations.
Atlanta was the ninth-worst defense in the NBA, due to an above-average allowance of opponent second-chance opportunities. The most encouraging aspect of their defensive campaign this season was limiting their opponents’ free-throw rate to the league’s 13th-best mark, per Cleaning the Glass.
Ostensibly, there’s reason to believe the Hawks could make the leap I projected next season under Quin Snyder’s tutelage. However, after what transpired this season, I would bet against it.
Grade: C
Prediction: Charlotte Hornets are the 10th-best offense or worse and the 20th-best defense or worse and miss the play-in tournament
Finally, a prediction that was on point.
However, the degree to which it was correct is nothing but unexpected. The Hornets have offensive juice — LaMelo Ball and the constantly-injured Gordon Hayward are their stalwarts, but Jalen McDaniels (now with the 76ers) and Mason Plumlee (now with the Clippers) provided necessary value on that end this season. Yet, they still finished as the worst offensive team in the league.
The main reason for the offensive crisis that transpired was the inefficient play of other high-usage players; namely Kelly Oubre, Terry Rozier, and PJ Washington.
We should applaud Steve Clifford for getting this group to the 20th-best defensive team. He consistently generates tremendous team defense from meager rosters.
Grade: A
Prediction: Miami Heat are the fourth-best team in the conference or better and are a top-10 team on both sides of the ball.
In terms of the numbers, Miami has underachieved more than any team compared to Las Vegas’ preseason odds. They are not a top-four team in their conference, they’ll be gearing up for the play-in tournament this week.
While the Heat has always been a “defense first” team under Erik Spoelstra, this is likely their most disappointing offensive performance during the coach’s tenure. The Heat scored 1.13 points per possession, slightly better than the bottom-feeder quintet of Charlotte, Detroit, Houston, Orlando, and San Antonio.
Miami wasn’t a strong shot-making team, aside from getting to the line at one of the league’s best rates (a defining characteristic of Jimmy Butler-led teams). According to the numbers, they simply weren’t taking the most-efficient attempts from the field. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Heat had the fourth-worst location shot profile, characterized by few attempts coming at the rim and an outsize affection for mid-range jumpers.
The Heat have interior shot makers, Butler being the best among them. Their other main offensive creator inside, Bam Adebayo, saw his offensive efficiency dip to a level not seen since his rookie season. Miami didn’t have a stable rotation with reliable shot-making for most of the season, which points to how feeble this Heat team is compared to their other campaigns in the Spoelstra era.
Grade: C-
Prediction: Orlando Magic are in the top 20 offensively and the bottom 10 defensively in the league
Misses on both sides of this prediction require that we take a deeper look at Orlando as a team since they finally appear to be on a trajectory toward semi-competitive basketball.
Orlando was the 26th-best offense and 12th-best defense this season, per Cleaning the Glass, scoring 1.12 points per possession and affording opponents 1.14 per possession. They were one of the league’s worst shooting teams and also turned the ball over at one of the highest rates while forcing a high number of opponent turnovers.
Impressively for a young team, they leveled the turnover battle, and stole points on the glass and from the free-throw line; signs that are usually characteristic of competitive and veteran teams.
Their offense slid due to their shot rate. Orlando had one of the worst jump-shooting efficiencies of any team this season, making 41 percent and 35 percent of their midrange and outside attempts, respectively. It doesn’t help that they took an above-average number of attempts from the long midrange, the least efficient location on the court.
On defense, the Magic may have also been the beneficiaries of some luck, which may have been intentional on the part of the Basketball Gods given all that the franchise has had to endure over the prior decade. Orlando opponents shot a full percentage point below league average on 3-point attempts and a pathetic 34 percent on non-corner attempts. Given that they allowed opponents to take the fourth-most attempts from outside this season, we might expect some regression in their defense next season.
But, let’s give credit to this Magic team for making small yet meaningful improvements. Looking back, it may be a turning point for a young team on the rise, even if I didn’t predict it.
Grade: F
Prediction: Washington Wizards finish as a top-15 offense league-wide
The Wizards barely missed the cutoff, scoring 0.004 points per possession below the rate needed to be among the upper half of NBA offenses this season.
While this wasn’t the most provocative prediction in the list, there was a tinge of mystery surrounding this team and the appropriate expectations for them coming into the season. Bradley Beal had signed an extension to keep him in a Wizards uniform, but he’d been dealing with a wrist injury that required surgery last year.
Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis had both made strides last season, but were they a sufficient one-two punch to carry the load if Beal were to miss extended time?
The Wizards weren’t a stellar offensive team overall this season, but they shot the ball at a rate that made up for their other inefficiencies on that end of the floor. Even their profile, characterized by the third-highest midrange diet, suggested they would falter. But they made an elite number of shots inside the arc this season, including the best rate at the rim and 43 percent of their long mid-range attempts. Sinking 40 percent on their corner 3-point attempts, thanks to high-efficiency marks from Corey Kispert and Kuzma, helped round out their impressive efficiency.
Were the Wizards to develop a defensive identity to compliment their shot-making, they’d be on the path toward competitive basketball.
Grade: B+
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