We're heading down the stretch of the college basketball regular season as Selection Sunday is merely days away. Champ Week provides one final opportunity for teams on the bubble to solidify their resumes with big wins or fall off entirely with an ill-timed loss.
Bubble teams will also be praying that we don't get bid thieves this week to shrink the bubble by a spot or two. Let's take a look at the current state of the bubble before the major conference tournaments kick off in earnest.
Note: Records and NET Rankings are current as of 3:00 p.m. ET on March 12. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Top seeds in conference tournaments are projected to be in the field and are not eligible for Bubble Watch.
March Madness Bubble Watch: Last Four Byes
Team | Michigan State | Seton Hall | Oklahoma | TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big Ten | Big East | Big 12 | Big 12 |
Record | 18-13 (10-10) | 20-11 (13-7) | 20-11 (8-10) | 20-11 (9-9) |
NET | 24 | 62 | 43 | 40 |
Quad 1 Record | 3-8 | 5-7 | 4-11 | 4-10 |
Quad 2 Record | 5-5 | 4-3 | 5-0 | 3-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 10-0 | 11-1 | 11-0 | 13-0 |
Strength Of Schedule | 12 | 42 | 32 | 65 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 75 | 243 | 320 | 357 |
Last Game | L 65-64 At Indiana | W 86-62 Vs. DePaul | L 94-80 At Texas | L 79-77 Vs. UCF |
Next Game | Vs. Minnesota 3/14 | Vs. St. John's 3/14 | Vs. TCU 3/13 | Vs. Oklahoma 3/13 |
Michigan State has slumped down the stretch, adding losses to non-tournament teams in Ohio State, Indiana and Iowa to drop down to the bubble. An excellent schedule and metrics mean the Spartans should be safe but they could drop down to Dayton if they lose their Big Ten Tournament opener against Minnesota.
The NET still doesn't love Seton Hall but their five Quad 1 wins and 13-7 record in a strong Big East will play nicely in the selection room. Knocking off St. John's in the Big East quarterfinals on Thursday should lock up a bid but they will probably be safe even with a loss.
Oklahoma has stumbled massively down the stretch, losing five of seven with the only wins coming against Oklahoma State and Cincinnati, and there is potential for distraction after rumors emerged of head coach Porter Moser flirting with taking DePaul's job. Failing to beat TCU in the Big 12 Tournament could make things very uncomfortable come Selection Sunday.
The resume that the Horned Frogs have is very similar to Oklahoma's but they fall behind the Sooners due to worse scheduling figures. Wednesday's game against the Sooners may be all TCU needs to secure its ticket to dance but a loss here could leave them vulnerable to getting snubbed.
March Madness Bubble Watch: Last Four In
Team | Indiana State | St. John's | Colorado | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Missouri Valley | Big East | Pac-12 | Mountain West |
Record | 28-6 (17-3) | 19-12 (11-9) | 22-9 (13-7) | 22-9 (10-8) |
NET | 29 | 39 | 27 | 28 |
Quad 1 Record | 1-4 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 2-7 |
Quad 2 Record | 4-1 | 6-2 | 7-4 | 4-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 22-1 | 10-1 | 13-0 | 15-1 |
Strength Of Schedule | 126 | 38 | 79 | 86 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 303 | 151 | 244 | 208 |
Last Game | L 84-80 Vs. Drake | W 86-78 Vs. Georgetown | W 73-57 At Oregon State | L 87-85 At No. 22 Utah State |
Next Game | N/A | Vs. Seton Hall 3/14 | Vs. Utah/ Arizona State 3/14 | Vs. Air Force 3/13 |
A loss in the Missouri Valley title game makes Indiana State this year's test case of whether a high-achieving mid-major with questionable schedule figures can make the field after losing in their conference tournament. The NET and Ken Pom like the Sycamores, whose lone Quad 1 win is over the Drake team that beat them on Sunday, and 28 wins is nothing to sneeze at but any bid thieves would be bad news for Indiana State.
Even though they swept their week St. John's profile takes a bit of a hit as their two wins over Villanova dropped back to Quad 2, bringing them back to 3-9 in Quad 1 games. The Red Storm need to win their quarterfinal game over Seton Hall at Madison Square Garden in order to avoid a potential bid thief lapping them on Selection Sunday.
Colorado continued its late-season surge, sweeping the Oregon trip to make it six wins in a row to end the regular season and end up on the right side of the bubble. A win over Utah or Arizona State in their first game at the Pac-12 Tournament should seal a bid for the Buffaloes, who have good metrics and would then likely face Washington State in the semifinals.
The Lobos played hard at Utah State and lost by a bucket, which leaves them clinging to the last spot in the field as of today. Beating Air Force is imperative for New Mexico and they probably have to take down Boise State in the quarters as well since they have only two Quad 1 wins entering the Mountain West Tournament.
March Madness Bubble Watch: First Four Out
Team | Virginia | Villanova | Pittsburgh | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | ACC | Big East | ACC | SEC |
Record | 22-9 (13-7) | 17-14 (10-10) | 21-10 (12-8) | 18-13 (9-9) |
NET | 51 | 32 | 44 | 46 |
Quad 1 Record | 2-6 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 5-6 |
Quad 2 Record | 6-3 | 5-1 | 5-2 | 6-3 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 14-0 | 8-3 | 14-2 | 7-4 |
Strength Of Schedule | 77 | 14 | 84 | 21 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 234 | 47 | 340 | 64 |
Last Game | W 72-57 Vs. Georgia Tech | L 69-67 Vs. No. 10 Creighton | W 81-73 Vs. NC State | W 86-60 At Ole Miss |
Next Game | Vs. Clemson/Boston College/Miami 3/14 | Vs. DePaul 3/13 | Vs. Wake Forest/Notre Dame/Georgia Tech 3/14 | Vs. Ole Miss 3/14 |
A win over Georgia Tech stopped the bleeding for Virginia, who sit just outside the field ahead of the ACC Tournament. Getting a win over Clemson might be enough to get the Cavaliers in the field, depending on how the rest of the bubble falls, but a loss there would almost certainly send them to the NIT.
Villanova got swept to end the season, losing by a bucket at Creighton to face the historic conundrum of being a bubble team with 15 losses if they don't win the Big East Tournament. Beating DePaul in the opening game won't do much but finding a way to beat Marquette, who may not have Tyler Kolek as he works his way back from an oblique injury, could lead to a fascinating debate on Selection Sunday.
Pitt's best win is at Duke when the Blue Devils were down two starters, which may hurt them when added in with their horrendous non-conference strength of schedule. Wake Forest likely is coming in the quarters but the Panthers may need to beat them and North Carolina to put themselves in a good spot on the bubble.
Texas A&M got back on track with three straight wins to end the season and has excellent schedule metrics to go along with five Quad 1 wins. Picking up two wins in the SEC Tournament would probably push them into the field, but that is imperative because a 14-loss at-large team may be a tough sell with four of those defeats coming outside the top two quadrants.
March Madness Bubble Watch: Next Four Out
Team | Wake Forest | Iowa | Providence | Memphis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | ACC | Big Ten | Big East | American |
Record | 19-12 (11-9) | 18-13 (10-10) | 19-12 (10-10) | 22-9 (11-7) |
NET | 38 | 60 | 63 | 69 |
Quad 1 Record | 2-5 | 3-8 | 5-8 | 2-3 |
Quad 2 Record | 6-6 | 5-3 | 2-4 | 4-4 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 11-1 | 10-2 | 12-0 | 16-2 |
Strength Of Schedule | 73 | 16 | 51 | 92 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 255 | 236 | 259 | 61 |
Last Game | W 81-76 Vs. Clemson | L 73-61 Vs. No. 12 Illinois | L 74-60 Vs. No. 2 UCONN | L 92-84 At Florida Atlantic |
Next Game | Vs. Notre Dame/Georgia Tech 3/13 | Vs. Ohio State 3/14 | Vs. Georgetown 3/13 | Vs. Rice/Wichita State 3/14 |
A win at Clemson was good for Wake Forest, but they're on this page because that game was preceded by three consecutive losses to Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. Getting two wins in the ACC Tournament doesn't even buy a ton for the Demon Deacons, who would only add a Quad 2 or 3 win along with one over Pitt, before getting a shot at North Carolina in the semis of the ACC Tournament.
Losing by 12 at home to Illinois killed the momentum for Iowa, which had been steadily climbing toward the bubble but lacked that signature win to put their resume over the top. The Big Ten Tournament bracket offers some hope for Iowa, which could get shots at both Illinois and Nebraska on their side, which would give them some momentum to get to the final and potentially get in even if they lose to Purdue.
The end of the season hasn't gone well for the Friars, who have five Quad 1 wins but haven't beaten a potential tournament team since topping St. John's by 3 a month ago. Getting past Georgetown in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament won't do much but if the Friars can find a way to get a second win over Creighton they'd shoot up the bubble quickly.
Memphis has a string of good non-conference wins they can point to, including victories over Clemson as well as fellow bubblers Virginia and Texas A&M, but all of that work came prior to losing point guard Caleb Mills for the season with a knee injury. Conference play was a struggle for the Tigers without Mills as they picked up a few bad losses along with a home win over Florida Atlantic, leaving the auto-bid as the only path here since any win Memphis picks up prior to the finals won't help their resume.
Bubble Watch Awards
Best Bubble Win: Seton Hall Over Villanova
There was sentiment last week that Seton Hall had slipped behind Villanova in the bubble pecking order. Picking up a 10-point win over the Wildcats allowed the Pirates to leapfrog both Villanova and St. John's in the Big East hierarchy, leaving them well-positioned to make the NCAA Tournament even if they lose to the Red Storm at the Big East Tournament on Thursday.
Worst Bubble Loss: Michigan State At Indiana
The Spartans didn't show up early against Indiana, falling behind 24-7 over the first 11 minutes, and that hole proved to be too much to overcome as the Hoosiers hung on for a one-point win. The loss was the fourth in the past five games for Michigan State, whose only win in that span was a four-point victory at home over Northwestern on Senior Night, leaving things feeling much more dangerous if Tom Izzo's team can't take care of business against Minnesota on Thursday.
Biggest Bubble Opportunity: Virginia
The Cavaliers are narrowly out of the field as of post time but the ACC Tournament draw did them a tremendous favor by setting them up with a potential Clemson/Duke path to the final. Winning against the Tigers might be enough to get Virginia over the cut line but topping the Blue Devils as well would lock things up ahead of the championship game.
Bubble Team In Danger: Indiana State
History hasn't always been kind to teams like the Sycamores, who stack up Quad 3 and 4 wins in a mid-major conference but don't get as many opportunities to rack up good wins in non-conference play since many of the big boys won't schedule them. Indiana State passed the eye test on Sunday and has strong metrics but if enough power conference teams make moves on the bubble the Sycamores could be left at the altar by 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday night.