AAC Win Total Over/Under Preview: How to Bet on Houston Cougars in 2022

The AAC has been dominated by Cincinnati for the past few years, but is there a new sheriff in town?

Desmond Ridder and Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner are gone from the Bearcats, and last year's AAC runner-up, the Houston Cougars seem primed to take a step forward with quarterback Clayton Tune leading their high-powered offense.

Here's how I'm attacking Houston's win total this season and also a look at the Tulsa Golden Hurricane; riding flukey wins the past few years and due for a setback with some serious turnover on the roster.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

You can find all of my college football plays on my Betstamp @rw33

Houston OVER 9 Wins (-120)

After losing Week 1 to Texas Tech, Houston won 11 straight games en route to the AAC title game. They came up short against College Football Playoff-bound Cincinnati, but responded by handling Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl, finishing 12-2.

Now, the schedule breaks their way favorably as they are set to make another appearance in the conference championship game. The team opens at UTSA, which they are favored in and then a rematch at Texas Tech. After that, the team should be favored in all but probably one game (at SMU).

The team avoids contenders Cincy and UCF on the conference schedule and should be able to throttle their conference competition.

On offense, Tune comes back on the heels of a 3,500 yard season with his top receiver Nathaniel Dell (1,300 receiving yards) also on the roster, along with Oklahoma transfer Cody Jackson. At running back, the team will likely lean on Brandon Campbell, a USC transfer.

Tune has proven he is good enough to hold the line on offense, but it's the defense that should really shine for the Cougs. The team brings back 10 seniors that saw 200+ snaps and contributed to a unit that allowed just over 20 points per game with 43 sacks. The defensive line returns enough depth to offset the loss of Logan Hall, and should continue to be a force in the AAC. Overall, this unit helped contribute to the 12th most tackles for loss in the country.

The schedule breaks nicely for Dana Holgorsen this season that I'm bullish the floor is 9, with upside to an 11-1 season.

PICK: Houston OVER 9 Wins (-120)

Tulsa UNDER 6 Wins (-120)

The Golden Hurricane have overachieved the past two seasons, going 6-3 in a COVID-shortened season, and winning four straight to get to seven wins, but it feels like the reckoning is coming for Phil Montgomery's roster.

The team has a total returning production of 57%, per ESPN's Bill Connelly, and must replace four offensive lineman that includes first round pick Tyler Smith, not to mention more than half of the two-deep on the defensive line. Yes, the team brings back Davis Brin at quarterback, but they also lost Shamari Brooks (1,029 rushing yards) and three of their top four receivers from last season.

The Golden Hurricane found themselves in close games last season, which led to a ton of variance in their record. The team lost to FCS UC-Davis, and then nearly beat Oklahoma State the following week. Overall, they went 5-4 in games decided by eight points or less, but that was when they had some veterans on the team.

This season, I think we see some negative regression for this roster that has gotten by for two straight years.

The schedule isn't so hard, but the team is in a coin-flip at Wyoming in Week 1 before two home games against Northern Illinois and Jacksonville State. They go to Navy and Temple in conference play but also play Ole Miss Cincinnati, SMU and at Memphis.

Six wins is still bowl eligibility and that is the back stop for this under bet. It helps that they will be big underdogs in the final week of the season on the road at Houston for a possible hedge.

PICK: Tulsa UNDER 6 Wins (-120)