Alabama vs. Florida Prediction, Odds and Spread for College Football Week 3
By Reed Wallach
No. 1 Alabama travels to Gainesville to take on No. 11 Florida in Week 3 of the college football season.
The Crimson Tide didn’t miss a beat in Week 1, rolling over then No. 14 Miami (FL), winning 44-13. Last week, the team went through the motions in a 48-14 victory over Mercer ahead of this early season SEC showdown against the Gators.
Meanwhile, Florida has held serve thus far, beating two in-state opponents in Florida Atlantic and South Florida.
How should we handicap this matchup between the defending National Champions against arguably their stiffest competition in the regular season?
Here are the odds, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Alabama vs. Florida Spread, Odds and Over/Under
Spread:
Alabama: -15.5 (-110)
Florida: +15.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
Alabama: -670
Florida: +480
Over/Under: 58.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Alabama vs. Florida Betting Trends
- Florida is 0-2 against the spread this season
- Alabama is 70-52-2 ATS since Nick Saban became head coach in 2007
- Florida is 11-7-1 at home since Dan Mullen became head coach in 2018
Alabama vs. Florida Prediction and Pick
The most impressive observation for Florida this season has been from redshirt freshman quarterback Anthony Richardson. While he is on the depth as the backup behind junior Emory Jones, Richardson has seen time in both games and thrived, namely as a rusher.
Richardson has completed six of his 11 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns, but has ran for 275 yards on 11 carries and two touchdowns. There is some regression on the way from those explosive marks, but Mullen is going to need Richardson to rip off a few chunk plays to keep up with the Bama offense. However, Richardson is dealing with a hamstring injury that leaves his status in doubt.
Mullen said that Richardson is going to practice this week, so make sure to keep an eye on the injury report ahead of Saturday afternoon.
With that in mind, I’m going to stay away from the Gators this early in the week, and instead look to play the Crimson Tide’s Team Total Over 37 (-115) at WynnBet.
The Gators ran 81 plays in their Week 1 win over Florida Atlantic and then 66 against USF, averaging nearly 10 yards per play. While the Crimson Tide are in a different league as those two, the pace hints that there is a recipe for points on both sides.
The increased tempo from the Gators offense will give the Tide more opportunities with the ball, who had no issue moving the ball against Miami. Alabama put up 41 on their ranked opponent in the first three quarters, led by Heisman Trophy favorite Bryce Young’s fantastic play at quarterback.
He has seven touchdowns through two games and is completing more than 70% of his passes thus far. This can spell trouble against a UF defense that only has five starters back from last season and has been susceptible to explosive passes despite playing two poor offenses, right around the national average in explosive pass defense, per CollegeFootballData.
Against Young and this Bama passing attack, coupled with two teams that like to play with tempo, points are going to be easy to come by.
If Richardson is able to go, the Gators are capable of keeping this within two touchdowns considering his big play ability, and I would look to the over 58.5 if that's the case.
However, the Crimson Tide are still a cut above UF, and I expect them to break 40 yet again.
Want to back the Crimson Tide on Saturday? Make sure to do so with WynnBET!