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Braves vs. Marlins Prediction and Odds for Sunday, August 14 (Miami in Sneaky Spot as Home Underdog vs. Atlanta)

By Ben Heisler

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Braxton Garrett has a 3.20 ERA at home this season compared to a 4.40 ERA on the road.
Miami Marlins starting pitcher Braxton Garrett has a 3.20 ERA at home this season compared to a 4.40 ERA on the road. / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
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Another August, another winning streak for the Atlanta Braves.

After being one of baseball's best second-half teams in 2021 en route to a World Series victory, Atlanta is cruising again; winners of five straight looking for the sweep of the Miami Marlins on the road.

Miami has lost three in a row and four consecutive games to Atlanta. They're also down in the season series 8-4.

As a short underdog at home on getaway day, can the Marlins pick up a surprise victory and avoid the sweep?

Here are the latest odds for Sunday's NL East matchup in Miami over at WynnBET Sportsbook:

Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Braves -1.5 (+127)
  • Marlins +1.5 (-155)

Moneyline:

  • Braves -127
  • Marlins +117

Total:

  • 7.5 (OVER -115 | UNDER -105)

Braves vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Both teams are headed in opposite directions, but I like Miami as a sneaky play at home on Sunday.

Left-hander Braxton Garrett has come back to earth after a four-game stretch in July with an ERA of 1.80 in 25 innings and a 5:1 K/BB ratio. Over his last three outings, he's got an ERA of 5.87 in just 15.1 innings, but the advanced numbers tell a much different story.

Garrett has been the benefactor of a whole lot of bad luck. While his ERA may be close to six, his Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP is actually at 3.12, while his expected FIP (xFIP) is sizably lower than that at 2.39.

Meanwhile, Atlanta's starter Bryce Elder gets the start for the first time since April 30. He last pitched with the Big League club back on August 6, going 2.1 innings in relief allowing five hits and three earned runs with only two strikeouts. In 21.1 innings this season in Atlanta, he's got an ERA of 5.48 and an expected ERA (xERA) of 7.19.

Garrett has also been a much better pitcher at home this season, striking out an absurd 15.56 batters/nine innings at home compared to only 7.33 on the road. With a strikeout-heavy team like Atlanta, I buy into a bounce back start and a slight upset victory from the Fish at home.

PICK: Marlins ML +117

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!

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