Carla Esparza vs. Rose Namajunas UFC 274 Prediction and Odds (How to Back 'Thug Rose' to Defend Strawweight Belt)

UFC 274 is live from the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona on Saturday, May 7th, featuring a pair of title fights.

The co-main event features a rematch from the Ultimate Fighter in 2014 when Strawweight champion Rose Namajunas defends her belt against challenger Carla Esparza. 'Thug Rose' has won 6 of her last 7 fighters while Esparza enters on a five fight win streak, all by decision.

Esparza won the first meeting between the two way back when, but much has changed since then. Who has the edge in this meeting? Let's find out by first looking at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Carla Esparza vs. Rose Namajunas UFC 274 Odds

Moneyline:

• Carla Esparza: +170
• Rose Namajunas: -205

Total: 4.5 (Over -185/Under +155)

Carla Esparza vs. Rose Namajunas UFC 274 Prediction and Pick

I like Namajunas to retain her belt in this rematch. While Esparza won the first meeting, that was the first Strawweight title fight in UFC history, this is years down the road with Namajunas showcasing a more developed ground game. Despite being taken down 5 times by Zhang Weili, it was the champ who had 7 minutes of control time while her opponent had 3:37. Her scrambling game was impeccable and that will be key against Esparza, who is more of a one trick pony.

'Cookie Monster' averages more than 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes while throwing 2.34 significant strikes per minute, according to UFCStats.com. Esparza has compiled a five fight winning streak by grinding fights to a halt, landing takedowns and avoiding facing significant striking. She landed a late second round knock out in her last win, but the four priors included 2 split, a majority and a unanimous decision. Esparza doesn't win in convincing fashion, and with Namajunas growing scrambling game, I believe she can not only land more volume on the feet, but stymie Esparza's grapple-heavy approach en route to a clear unanimous decision victory.

I see a slow developing fight that includes a limited amount of striking and based more around positioning, but Namajunas finding the more impactful moments to retain her belt.

LEAN: Namajunas by Decision

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