College Football Upset Picks for Week 10: Oklahoma State is Live in Bedlam
By Reed Wallach
The calendar flips to November and the stakes continue to grow, sometimes for teams that we didn't expect to be playing in high-leverage contests this late in the season.
Oklahoma State was circling the drain on a lost season a month ago, or so it appeared, but the team has won four straight to make the final installment of 'Bedlam' against Oklahoma pivotal in what's now a battle for first place in the Big 12.
The rivalry matchup headlines our upset picks, but don't look past the Friday night showdown in Western New York between Boston College and Syracuse as well as the primetime matchup on Saturday between Washington and USC.
The odds for the underdog picks are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, who are matching all new users' first bet up to $1,000 when they sign up with the link below!
Best College Football Upset Picks for Week 10
- Boston College (+110) vs. Syracuse
- Oklahoma State (+192) vs. Oklahoma
- USC (+130) vs. Washington
Boston College vs. Syracuse Prediction and Pick
BC has been able to open up its explosive plays with its ability to run the ball at a high level. The team is fifth in EPA/Play on the year and that has allowed Castellanos to showcase his arm talent with chunk plays through the air.
To be fair, this plays into the strength of the Syracuse defense, which is 23rd in EPA/Play, but a lot of that is based on the team's incredibly soft non-conference schedule. In ACC play, Syracuse allowed 126, 201, 191, and 318 rushing yards to Clemson, North Carolina, Florida State and Virginia Tech, respectively.
While the BC defense is one of the weaker ones in the ACC, the unit is 101st in EPA/Play, the current state of the Syracuse offense doesn't inspire confidence in me that they can pull away from an Eagles team that is far more dynamic on the offensive side of the ball.
I'm getting the better team at plus money, I'll happily grab BC to clinch a bowl game in early November.
PICK: Boston College (+115)
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Pick
Oklahoma State continues to impress out of its BYE week, winning four straight games and scoring at least 29 in all of them. The team finally settled on quarterback Allan Bowman as the man under center for the Pokes and it's led to a serious uptick on that side of the ball. It's also led to the team unleashing running back Ollie Gordon, who has rushed for over 130 yards in four straight games and over 200 yards in his last two.
The team will face an Oklahoma defense that is outside the top 100 in explosive defense. The team has been gashed by chunk plays all season, notable in the team's close calls against UCF and Kansas in recent weeks. That's a big issue against Oklahoma State, who is top 10 in explosive rush offense behind the bruising back in Gordon.
The Oklahoma offense continues to put a lot of pressure on quarterback Dillon Gabriel's shoulders as the team is right around the national average in terms of rushing yards (67th) and line yards (65th). Without a big push, and an Oklahoma State team that is top 30 in havoc rate and turnovers gained, the OU turnover regression can continue to take its toll on the offense.
Despite the loss last week, OU continues to run well in terms of turnover luck, third in turnover margin in the entire country.
These teams are traveling in two different directions and I'll take Pokes to bid farewell to its Big 12 rival with a win in the final edition of Bedlam.
PICK: Oklahoma State +192
Washington vs. USC Prediction and Pick
While USC's defense has looked worse for ware over the better part of a month now, have we seen Washington play lately? Currently the biggest fraud in the country, the Huskies were nearly defeated by two of the worst teams in the PAC-12 Arizona State and Stanford.
The Huskies won the most impactful PAC-12 game to date by holding off Oregon at home, but since then have looked anything but a College Football Playoff contender. While I have my concerns about trusting USC, I'll happily take the points in a game that is likely going to come down to who has the ball last with a total of 76.
Washington's defense is not the Notre Dame or Utah units, the two teams that handed USC losses this season. The team is dead last in passing down success rate and is bottom 20 in tackles for loss. I expect a big game for Caleb Williams in this one where he won't be running around for his life, he can stand in the pocket and find his talented pass-catching group downfield.
Meanwhile, the Trojans are top third in the nation in sacks and will be able to get pressure on traditional pocket passer Michael Penix Jr. and limit his ability to find guys down field.
USC's defense has been prone to allowing more explosive plays, 99th in EPA/Play on defense while Washington is around the national average at 63rd. However, USC has been slightly better on a down-to-down, posting the 76th-best success rate while Washington is 88th. If Caleb Williams plays to expectations, the Trojans are live in this one with minimal stops on either end.
PICK: USC (+130)
Get more picks for this week on ALL the AP Poll Top 25 matchups in Week 10 here!
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