History Says Back Colts to Win in Week 6 and Beyond

For a team that was the consensus favorite to win the AFC South division to start the season, the Indianapolis Colts should be thrilled with their 2-2-1 start through five weeks of the NFL season.

In fact, if not for a late comeback win in Week 3 vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, as well as the Denver Broncos and Russell Wilson gifting the victory on Thursday Night Football in Week 5, Indianapolis should probably be the last NFL team left searching for a victory.

It feels like the expression "don't look a gift horse in the mouth" applies both figuratively and literally when it comes to this year's Colts, but history will tell you that better fortunes are on the way.

Week 6 is When Colts Start to Take Off

At the start of the season, Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis posted about Indy's early-season struggles with head coach Frank Reich at the helm. Much of the reasons have to do with the team starting a brand new quarterback to begin each season, with the Colts on their fifth signal-caller in five years.

In Weeks 1-5, Indy has a losing record under Reich, winning only 40% of their games at 8-12. From Week 6 on, however, it's a completely different story.

This year, the Colts actually performed slightly better than in years past through the first five weeks; going 2-2-1 through Weeks 1-5.

Are Colts Still the Best Bet to Win vs. Jaguars? AFC South?

As someone who's holding onto a Colts AFC South preseason future at less-than-ideal odds, I still buy into their ability to bounce back in a very winnable division.

Right now, the outlook is bleak. Indy ranks dead last in Football Outsiders' Offense DVOA (-35.2%), as well as Total DVOA (-31.5%), but still rank 11th in Defense DVOA (-2.9%).

The Colts haven't had their best defensive player in linebacker Shaquille Leonard on the field for most of the first five weeks, but their defense is starting to play much better football. They've also been one of the better second half defenses in football, allowing the third-fewest points in the league in the final 30 minutes.

Where Indianapolis has to improve is on offense, particularly in turnovers, as well as running the ball. Matt Ryan is tied for the league league in turnovers with Matthew Stafford of the L.A. Rams with 10 turnovers this season.

If they're going to get back in the mix, they'll need a big remaining 11 games out of running back Jonathan Taylor; last year's leading rusher in the NFL.

Through the first five weeks of last year's season, Taylor had rushed for 327 yards on only 73 rush attempts, averaging 4.5 yards-per-carry. In the final 11 games, he went on to rush for 1,484 yards, averaging 134.9 per contest.

In the Colts' nine wins last season, Taylor averaged 138.8 yards-per-game on an average of 23.1 attempts. In their eight losses, his average dropped to 15.5 per game on just 70.3 yards/game.

With extended rest, along with the likelihood of having both Taylor and Leonard back in the mix, I took the Colts on the moneyline to win in Week 6 at home vs. the Jaguars, and would recommend backing Indy before the line keeps moving past that key number of 3.