It's a Trap: Which College Football Odds are Most Deceiving in Week 10?

Last week’s matchup between Iowa and Wisconsin had two defense-first teams pitted against each other and the total was set at an amazing low of 36. Surely these two teams could muster up enough offense to go over?

Deceived!

Wisconsin won 27-7, duping the over bettors.

All the hype around quarterback Matt Corral and the Ole Miss offense and they were 3-point underdogs to an up-and-down Auburn Tigers team. Ole Miss has the firepower to get them over the hump and cover that three-point underdog spread.

Deceived again!

Ole Miss scored a season low 20 points and got bounced by 11 points. In the future, more deceiving lines will show themselves, just like these ones.  

Here are three games that appear to have deceiving lines in Week 10, odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Ohio State (-14.5) vs. Nebraska 

The Buckeyes are favored by more than two touchdowns against the Cornhuskers. It makes sense considering Ohio State’s offense is so potent. On the other side of the football, Nebraska’s defense has done a decent job limiting yardage.

If the Huskers can limit explosive plays from C.J. Stroud, they should be able to hang against the Buckeyes. Ohio State’s defense is still really good, but not quite as good as some of the defenses that have passed through Columbus over the years. They have been more susceptible to big plays, especially through the air.

Ohio State has been favored by two or more touchdowns in every game this season, and are 4-3-1 against the spread.

Tulsa vs. Cincinnati (-23.5)

The Cincinnati Bearcats are still undefeated at 8-0, and are the Cinderella story of the College Football season. But against the spread, the Bearcats are 5-3. Still pretty good, just not Cinderella good.

Cincinnati has been tasked with a spread larger than 20 points six different times in 2021 and have gone 3-3 against the spread in those games. Cincy’s strong defense has only allowed 14.3 points per game, but could relinquish some points against a decent Tulsa offense. 

The Bearcats are the kind of team that will take an early lead then let their hair down and allow the other team to climb back in. 

Appalachian State (-21) vs. Arkansas State

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 1-7, which is awful, but they are 4-4 against the spread, which is promising.

The Red Wolves throw the football a ton. They are averaging 328 passing yards per game and they will be facing an Appalachian State team that has a weakness in their defensive secondary. It’s pretty likely that the Red Wolves’ really bad defense will get blistered, but their offense is still averaging 27.5 points per game, and should be able to get close to that total again this week.

Could Appalachian State score 50 or more points and easily cover? Maybe. They scored 59 last week, but have failed to score 40 or more points in back-to-back weeks. I expect a regression, which favors Arkansas State.