Mavericks vs. Jazz Western Conference First Round Series Odds, Prediction
By Reed Wallach
The 2022 NBA Playoffs are here, and the first round is shaping up to be as intriguing as ever with a ton of teams battling in the middle of the Western Conference.
The 4/5 matchup in the West pits the No. 4 Dallas Mavericks vs. the No. 5 Utah Jazz. While the Mavericks opened as modest chalk, the Jazz have become considerable favorites with the status of Mavericks' superstar Luka Doncic in doubt. The superstar suffered a strained left calf on Sunday night with no timetable released for his return.
Let's dive into the series odds from WynnBET Sportsbook and find where the betting value lies with Doncic's status in doubt.
Jazz vs. Mavericks Series Price
- Utah Jazz: -165
- Mavericks: +135
The market movement is completely correlated to Doncic's injury, which may save Utah from a painful first round exit at the hands of Doncic and co.
Again, we must wait for the Doncic news. If he is ruled out for most of this series, then the Mavericks are going to struggle to generate sound offense to keep up with Utah. While the Jazz have been the center of several late game meltdowns over the last month, the offense is still producing at the league best rate. According to NBA.com, the Jazz have the best offensive rating in the league this season.
Doncic's impact on the Mavericks can't be understated. He won't win MVP this season, but he is in the 100th percentile of the league in usage rate this season, posting a career high 42.4% mark. The Slovenian is an All-NBA talent and the Mavericks revolve their entire offense around his creation. He averaged 28.4 points, 9.1 rebounds and 8.7 assists.
According to Jeff Stotts of RotoWire, the average calf strain recovery takes 16 days.
Re: Luka: There’s a lot of variability in calf strains. The calf is actually a muscle complex made up of multiple muscles. Severity & location will factor into resulting recovery. Average time lost for calf strains in the NBA this season was 16 days (median 17, minimum = 3 days)
— Jeff Stotts (@InStreetClothes) April 11, 2022
Again we don't know the recovery time so we are still guessing, but if he misses part of the series, I believe the goal for Dallas is to tread water until he can return. I am no rush to bet this series and will be looking to bet the Mavericks when we get a clear picture on Doncic's timetable.
The teams split their season series, but the trajectory of each are in vastly different directions.
Since the All-Star break, Dallas is 17-6, tied for the most wins in the NBA, while the Jazz are 13-11 as their defense has fallen by the wayside. This was going to be an easy bet on the Mavericks, but now we are in a holding pattern. While Spencer Dinwiddie has been fantastic since getting traded to the Mavs at the deadline (efficiency is up across the board to nearly 50/40/73 splits) he can't keep the offense afloat against Utah's perimeter shooting and Rudy Gobert's interior presence on defense.
The goal will be for Dallas to remain compeitive in this series until Doncic can return for the second half of it and then come in on the Mavericks, who still have home court advantage.
The Jazz day of reckoning appears to be here with the locker room continuing to turn against one another, but the Mavericks must get Doncic on the floor to advance.
LEAN: Wait for Dallas to find out more about Luka Doncic's Injury Status before betting Mavericks