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Montana State vs. Grambling Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament First Four (Back the Bobcats)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Montana State-Grambling.

By Shelby Dermer

Mar 13, 2024; Boise, ID, USA; Montana State Bobcats guard Robert Ford III (20) celebrates after a win.
Mar 13, 2024; Boise, ID, USA; Montana State Bobcats guard Robert Ford III (20) celebrates after a win. / Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports
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Montana State ran the table to win the Big Sky Conference Tournament for the program’s third consecutive March Madness bid. First-year head coach Matt Logie now takes his team to Dayton for the First Four to face Grambling, a 20-win squad that ran the table in the SWAC. 

The prize for the winner? A date with No. 1 Purdue in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Which team advances? Montana State is a short favorite in a projected low-scoring affair. Here’s the betting breakdown of the First Four matchup with a best bet. 

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Montana State vs. Grambling Odds, Spread and Total

Montana State vs. Grambling Betting Trends

  • Montana State is 16-15 ATS this season
  • Grambling is 17-14 ATS this season
  • Montana State is 3-8 ATS as a favorite this season
  • Grambling is 10-8 ATS as an underdog this season
  • The OVER is 17-14 in Montana State games this season
  • The OVER is 15-16 in Grambling games this season

Montana State vs. Grambling How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, March 20
  • Game time: 6:40 p.m. EST
  • Venue: UD Arena
  • How to watch (TV): truTV
  • Montana State record: 17-17
  • Grambling record: 20-14 

Montana State vs. Grambling Key Players to Watch

Montana State

Robert Ford III: Montana State leaned on Ford to get the Bobcats into the NCAA Tournament with a Big Sky three-peat. Ford, the team’s leader in scoring and rebounds, scored 68 points on 23-of-39 shooting with 21 rebounds and 11 assists in three conference tournament contests. 

Grambling 

Jourdan Smith: A 6-foot-7 senior guard, Smith averages 9.7 points per game, but saved one of his best performances of the season for the SWAC title game. In a 75-66 win over Texas Southern Saturday, Smith finished with a team-high 20 points, knocking down a trio of 3-pointers. He hadn’t scored 20-plus points in a game since Nov. 14. 

Montana State vs. Grambling Prediction and Pick 

Can Montana State win with margin? 

It’s strength-on-strength in this matchup with points at a premium, according to the low total. It’s strength-on-strength in this matchup as Grambling struggles offensively and Montana State has had issues defensively. 

Still, look for the Bobcats to have the upper hand. Grambling’s offense is No. 297 in KenPom in efficiency and Montana State should create several opportunities in transition via sloppy ball security by the Tigers. Grambling is No. 341 in turnover percentage (second-worst of any tournament team) and Montana State is No. 46 in steal percentage. 

Offensively, the Bobcats don’t crash the glass with much success, mostly because there are not a lot of misses to grab. Montana State is No. 45 in the nation in effective field goal percentage and can find the net from both inside and beyond the arc while playing at a top-100 pace. Over 40% of Montana State’s shot attempts are from the perimeter and they should find a groove from distance on Wednesday against a Grambling defense that prefers to defend shots near the rim. Back the Bobcats. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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