NFL Mid-Week Movement: Total Keeps Climbing for Falcons vs. Cowboys

Make no mistake about it, the Cowboys are mad right now.

After surviving the week before with an upset win vs. the Vikings on the road, the Cowboys put up a stinker in a home loss to the Broncos. Expect the offense to be ready to rock as Dak Prescott and the Dallas seek out revenge from their recent failure. 

WynnBET Trader Sawyer Johnson tells BetSided that the Falcons-Cowboys matchup has been one of their biggest movers of the week:

“We’ve taken a fair amount of bets on the over in the Cowboys and Falcons game. We opened at 51.5 and the number is currently at 54.5.”

There's an interesting historical statistic to consider here.

Since the beginning of the 2018 NFL season, 15 games have closed 3.5 points or higher than the opening line The over still won out in those games, going 9-5-1 or 63.4 percent. When the totals went under in those games, it was by an average of 0.9 points. So far the movement hasn’t crossed the 3.0 mark but those results should still be helpful. 

With the already shifting quite a bit for this game, let’s take a look at the current lines from WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Falcons vs Cowboys Spread and Over/Under

Spread:

• Falcons: +9.5 (-110) 

• Virginia: -9.5  (-110) 

Moneyline:

• Falcons: +340

• Cowboys: -430

Total:

• 54.5 (Over -110/Under -110) - Opened at 52.0

The opening totals line for this game might have been a case overreacting to last week’s loss to the Broncos. The offense looked weak in Dak’s return to action and was only able to score 16 points on Denver. Few could have predicted how badly the Cowboys got beat last week after beating the Vikings the week before with Cooper Rush. It doesn’t matter much to the standings for Dallas as the NFC East is a complete dumpster fire.

Many bettors pounding the opening total with a 3-point swing with no major injury news is significant. I think last week was a true anomaly and it doesn’t affect my opinion of how powerful this offense is moving forward. Kudos to you if to took the OVER when it was at 52.0 but there is still some meat left on the bone at 54.5.