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Orioles vs. Rays Prediction and Odds for Sunday, August 14 (Splits Favor Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay at Home)

By Ben Heisler

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen (57) owns a 2.01 ERA in 44.2 IP at home, compared to a 3.86 ERA in 46.2 IP on the road.
Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen (57) owns a 2.01 ERA in 44.2 IP at home, compared to a 3.86 ERA in 46.2 IP on the road. / Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
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It still sounds funny when you say it out loud, but the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays play for playoff positioning in the AL East and Wild Card race this Sunday afternoon.

The Rays own a half game lead on their division rivals, as they cling onto the final Wild Card spot over the Orioles.

Tampa Bay has been a far superior team at home this season, going 34-22, while Baltimore has struggled away from Camden Yards going 26-33.

Who's in the best position to take the rubber match today?

Here's the latest odds for today's AL East showdown from St. Petersburg over at WynnBET Sportsbook:

Orioles vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Orioles +1.5 (-150)
  • Rays -1.5 (+125)

Moneyline:

  • Orioles +155
  • Rays -170

Total:

  • 7.5 (OVER -120 | UNDER +100)

Orioles vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

I'm leaning on the Rays in the early going this afternoon to cover on the run line through the first five innings in large part to starter Drew Rasmussen's splits.

The right-hander has been exceptional at home with a 2.01 ERA in 44.2 IP, limiting opponents to a .196 BA and .237 wOBA. The Rays have also been very good at limiting the damage and avoiding lineups a third time through the order when Rasmussen starts. He owns a 2.51 ERA overall the first and second time through, compared to a 7.00 ERA when the third opportunity rolls around.

Meanwhile, Jordan Lyles also has very divided home/road splits, and they don't favor him today. Lyles has a 2.73 ERA through 59.1 innings at home this year, compared to a 5.70 ERA in 71 innings on the road. He's allowed 15 of his 18 home runs this year away from Baltimore, with a Fielding Independent Pitching of 5.16.

The Orioles have had a flair for the dramatics this season, and are the best run line team in baseball in 2022, but in the early going, I think the Rays have the edge, and I'll take them through the first five innings.

PICK: Rays F5 RL -0.5 (-110)

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