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Patriots vs. Bills Prediction, Odds, Against Spread and Over/Under for AFC Wild Card Round

By Iain MacMillan

The Patriots and Bills will face each other for the third time this season in the NFL Wild Card round of the playoffs.
The Patriots and Bills will face each other for the third time this season in the NFL Wild Card round of the playoffs. / Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
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The NFL playoffs are officially here!

Now that the Wild Card weekend is set, it's going to be one of the most electric in recent history. Saturday night features an AFC East rubber match between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots.

The Patriots got the better of the Bills in Week 13, beating them 14-10 in a game that was highlighted by strong winds and an even stronger run game by New England. Buffalo got its revenge in Week 16, securing the 33-21 victory at Gillette Stadium.

The rubber match will take place in Buffalo, with kick-off set at 8:15 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Let's take a look at the odds via WynnBET for this AFC Wild Card showdown.

Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

  • Patriots +4.5 (-110)
  • Bills -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Patriots +170
  • Bills -210

Total:

  • 43.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Patriots vs. Bills Betting Trends

  • Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The OVER is 9-4 in the Patriots' last 13 games.
  • Patriots are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games in Buffalo.
  • Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. AFC East opponents.

Patriots vs. Bills Prediction and Pick

I was on the Bills in both of the matchups between these two teams this season, and I'm going to back them again i the Wild Card round. The Patriots bested the Bills the first time around, but I think we can all agree that the extreme weather during that matchup caused it to be an outlier.

The Bills are a pass first team, whose strength on defense is also to stop the passing game. When they play in poor conditions, specifically in high winds, they're going to be at a major disadvantage, evidenced by the Patriots game plan in Week 13. Even with the weather advantage, the Bills drove the field late in the game for a game-winning drive, but fell short inside the red zone.

The Bills pass defense has been the best in the NFL by a wide margin this season, keeping opposing teams to just 5.2 yards per pass attempt. Mac Jones had arguably the worst game of his career against them in Week 16, completing just 14-of-32 passes for 145 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions.

The Bills rank in the top five in almost every major statistic this NFL this season, and I think they get the job done on Saturday night.

Pick: Bills -4.5

Iain's NFL betting record this season: 151-120-1 (+25.47 units)

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