Phillies vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for World Series Game 1 (Verlander and Nola Aren't So Different)

The Houston Astros have yet to lose a game this postseason, winning seven consecutive games en route to their third World Series appearance since 2019.

In their two most recent trips to the Fall Classic, they've fallen just short to two different National League East squads in the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves.

Can the Philadelphia Phillies be the third?

Here's a look at the odds for Game 1 from Houston.

Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Phillies vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

When you've yet to lose in the postseason, start the World Series at home with the likely American League Cy Young award winner, and have a 19-game win discrepancy during the regular season vs. your opponent, there's perfectly good reasons to back the Astros in Game 1.

However, the true value lies with the Phillies at this number as a moneyline underdog.

Let's start with postseason success between the two starting pitchers. Verlander had a terrific bounce back outing in Game 1 at home vs. the New York Yankees, fanning 11 and allowing one run through six innings, but he also gave up six runs at home in his first postseason start off extended rest against the Seattle Mariners. Through two starts, his ERA is 6.30, allowing a concerning 18.2 HR/fly ball rate this postseason. That plays right into the Phillies' strength as one of the best power hitting teams in baseball.

Furthermore, Verlander has his issues come late October in the World Series in his career.

Aaron Nola also had a rough start in Game 2 in San Diego, but had pitched two scoreless games in the NL wild card and NLDS beforehand. He's currently 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA, along with an expected Fielder Independent Pitching, or xFIP of just 2.58.

With the postseason numbers out of the way, there's also a counter to how much better Verlander was over Nola in the regular season. It was Nola, not Verlander who led all pitchers in Fangraphs' wins-above-replacement, or fWAR this year at 6.3. While their ERAs were separated by a run and a half (Verlander 1.75 to Nola's 3.25), their peripherals were much similar. Verlander's FIP and xFIP this year were 2.43 and 3.23, compared to Nola's 2.58 FIP and 2.77 xFIP.

Verlander's the bigger name on the team that's yet to lose with the far better in-season record. But that's about it, and his pitching equal is nearly +150 on the board. Go grab it.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.