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SMU vs. TCU Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 4

Full betting preview for the "Battle for the Iron Skillet" between the SMU Mustangs and TCU Horned Frogs in Week 4.

By Josh Yourish

TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Chandler Morris (4)
TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Chandler Morris (4) / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
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The “Battle for the Iron Skillet” returns to Fort Worth as the TCU Horned Frogs host the SMU Mustangs in Week 4 of the college football season. Both teams enter the rivalry game at 2-1 and coming off a win. Last season, the Horned Frogs took a 42-34 win at SMU and TCU leads the all-time series 52-42-7. 

The Horned Frogs are favorites in Week 4 and for a full look at the college football landscape in Week 4, check out BetSided college football betting analyst Reed Wallach’s weekly preview and column. 

If you’re betting college football in Week 4, make sure to take advantage of this great promo from Caesars Sportsbook. Just sign up below and bet $50 to get $250 in bonus bets win or lose.

Now, we can get into the odds for the “Battle for the Iron Skillet.”

SMU vs. TCU Odds, Spread and Total

TCU vs. SMU Betting Trends

  • TCU is 1-2 ATS
  • The UNDER is 2-1 in TCU games
  • SMU is 2-1 ATS
  • The UNDER is 2-1 in SMU games
  • The OVER is 7-3 in last 10 head-to-head meetings

SMU vs. TCU How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, September 23
  • Time: 12:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • SMU Record: 2-1
  • TCU Record: 2-1

SMU vs. TCU Key Players to Watch

SMU

Preston Stone, QB: With Tanner Mordecai playing for Wisconsin now, the Mustangs needed a replacement and they seem to have found a pretty good one. The sophomore has thrown for 798 yards and nine touchdowns while completing 62.7% of his passes. 

TCU

Emani Bailey, RB: The Horned Frogs not only lost their QB and WR1 from last season, they also lost their top two running backs to the NFL. Bailey, a transfer from Louisiana in his second year at TCU, has taken over and done a nice job in the backfield.

He is rushing for 6.4 yards per carry and has racked up 357 yards and a touchdown through three games. Last time out he went for 126 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries against Houston. 

SMU vs. TCU Prediction and Pick

TCU looks like they might be back on track offensively. In Week 3, the Horned Frogs gained 564 yards against Houston and averaged 6.4 yards per play. Morris threw for 314 yards, two touchdowns and one pick. Emani Bailey overtook Trey Sanders as RB1 and ran for 126 yards. 

This season, TCU is 13th in yards per game at 515.7 and 33rd in yards per play averaging 6.5. Through three games SMU ranks 16th in opponent yards per play and 25th in yards per rush, only giving up 2.8.

Context is important because Oklahoma ran all over this SMU defense which ranked 123rd in run defense in 2022. They played some weak opponents early, I don’t expect this to be a stout unit up front. I expect a big game from Bailey. 

SMU will be able to keep up with the Horned Frogs offense. The Mustangs are 25th in passing offense behind Preston Stone and TCU’s secondary has been a disaster. Shedeur Sanders threw for 510 yards and four touchdowns against them and they are allowing 304.0 passing yards a game, which is 126th in the country. 

The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams and that’s my bet this weekend. It helps that they both play at a fast pace, TCU is fourth in plays per game and SMU is 11th, so both sides will have plenty of opportunities to put points on the board against tired defenses. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change

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