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TCU vs. Texas Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 11

By Reed Wallach

Texas Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson (5) runs the ball into the end zone during the Texas
Texas Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson (5) runs the ball into the end zone during the Texas / Mikala Compton/American-Statesman / USA
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TCU jumped into the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, but now need to find a way to get their biggest win to date in Austin against Texas on Saturday.

The Horned Frogs have a difficult path to the College Football Playoff starting with this road trip to face the Longhorns. TCU, despite their lofty rankings, have needed second half comebacks often this season to get out to their 9-0 start.

Now, a big underdog, will the Horned Frogs get another magical performance and stay in the hunt for a CFP berth? Let's check out the odds and break it down:

TCU vs. Texas Odds, Spread and Total

TCU vs. Texas Betting Trends

  • TCU is 7-1-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • TCU is 1-0 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Texas is 6-3 ATS this season, but all three non covers have come as a favorite
  • Texas is 4-1 ATS at home

TCU vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

This might be the end of the line for the unbeaten Frogs, who are battling injuries in addition to a tough opponent on Saturday. Star wide receiver Quentin Johnson didn't finish the team's game against Texas Tech on Saturday and didn't practice early this week.

The Horned Frogs offense has been dynamite this season, ranked top 10 on an EPA/Play basis as Max Duggan has been outstanding as a dual threat quarterback. He has combined for over 2,300 yards and 28 touchdowns this season with only two interceptions. The TCU offense is second in yards per play and top 20 in explosive run and pass rate on the year.

While this Texas defense is shaky against explosive run plays, the offense should be able to match them with BIjan Robinson at running back, talent in the passing game and one of the best offensive minds in the sport in Steve Sarkisian.

The Longhorns are 19th in yards per play on the year and 22nd in success rate. The unit is dynamic and can win through the air and on the ground, but we have seen a trend develop with the Longhorns in 2022: start fast, finish slow.

The Longhorns dominate the scripted portion of the game, posting 23 points per game in the first half this season, the fifth highest mark in the country. However, in the second half of games, they fall to 66th, averaging just 13. We saw Oklahoma State rally to beat Texas at home a few weeks ago and the Longhorns nearly squandered a 21-point second half lead against Kansas State last week.

TCU has been known for their second half heroics, the team is averaging nearly 20 points per game in the second half of games this season, the fifth highest mark nationally, so I'll attack this game by taking Texas first half to get off to a strong start.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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