Tennessee vs. Florida Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 3

It’s Week 3, but more specifically it’s the third Saturday in September. We already have big conference rivalries on the schedule, headlined by the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers against the Florida Gators in Gainesville. Florida leads the all-time series 31-21. 

Joe Milton and Graham Mertz, former Big 10 QBs, will be leading their SEC teams into this rivalry game. The Vols come in at 2-0 after beating Austin Peay 30-13 last week while Florida got into the win column for the first time against McNeese State. Billy Napier’s Gators are 1-1. 

Florida is 8-2 straight up in the last 10 meetings, but Tennessee is favored in the swamp this week. Before we take a look at those odds, check out this promo from the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

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Now, here are the odds for Tennessee and Florida. 

Tennessee vs. Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Florida vs. Tennessee Betting Trends

• Florida is 0-2 against the spread (ATS)
• The UNDER is 1-0-1 in Florida games
• Tennessee is 1-1 ATS
• The OVER is 1-1 in Tennessee games
• Tennessee is 6-4 ATS in last 10 head-to-head meetings

Tennessee vs. Florida How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, September 16
• Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Tennessee Record: 2-0
• Florida Record: 1-1

Tennessee vs. Florida Key Players

Tennessee

Joe Milton: Milton has thrown for 429 yards across two games and has completed 67% of his passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Arm strength is of no concern to Milton, but at times accuracy and decision making are. 

Florida

Graham Mertz: Mertz played a lot while at Wisconsin and to mixed results. In Florida’s opener against Utah, Mertz wasn’t great, completing 31 of 44 passes for 333 yards, one TD and one interception. Now, he has to face an SEC defense, albeit one of questionable strength.

Tennessee vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

Last season, the Vols under Josh Heupel were throwing the ball all over the place with Hendon Hooker at quarterback, checking in ninth in passing yards per game. However, under the rocket arm of Milton, they’ve been a run-first offense. Tennessee is only 42nd in yards per play this season, but they are fourth in rushing offense, averaging 287 rushing yards per game. 

The Vols have spread carries out between Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small, and Dylan Sampson and are ripping off 6.1 yards per carry. For comparison, Joe Milton is only averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt. In Week 1, Florida only surrendered 105 rushing yards to Utah, but in 2022 they were 95th in rushing defense. 

I expect the Vols to be able to run on Florida and with their very fast paced attack (4th in plays per game) Tennessee will wear down the Gator defense. Florida dominated McNeese State last week, but I don’t trust Graham Mertz in big games. For his career he is 2-8 as a starting quarterback against ranked opponents. In four of those 10 games he has thrown for under 150 yards. 

Since Josh Heupel took over at Tennessee, the Vols are 4-1 against the spread as road favorites, and I like them to cover this one as well. Give me Tennessee.  

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change