The “Don’t eat the cheese” is here to help you win your upcoming fantasy football league. The series continues with the wide receivers. Don’t fall for that wide receiver that will break your heart and never get the ball thrown his way. Which five wide receivers should you avoid during your fantasy football draft?
The NFL is a passing league and the importance of wide receivers has a crucial part to your fantasy league. Often times now it’s much safer to go with a wide out over a running back in that mysterious flex spot. Picking the right wide receiver for your squad is the difficult task. Picking the right receivers are the difficult part. After diving into the quarterbacks and running backs, the wide receivers are next on the to-do list.
Obviously, your league rules will have implications on your draft choices. If you play in a PPR league, meaning point per reception, go and get Antonio Brown. If you play in an auction league like myself, that isn’t a problem. For most of the audience that plays in a snake draft, getting a receiver like Brown who records a ton of catches is a priority. In this post, I will use the standard, non-PPR rules to go over my fantasy bust list.
I have one golden rule in terms of drafting a wide receiver, never take one that is stuck with a quarterback you can’t trust. No that doesn’t mean he has to be Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, just one that isn’t in danger of losing his job. That’s where we will start first. What are five wide receivers you should avoid in your upcoming fantasy football league?
5. John Brown
I truly can’t understand why John Brown is ranked so high according to fantasy pundits. Brown hasn’t caught more than 65 passes in a season during his three-year career. He also had just 517 receiving yards and two touchdowns a year ago. Those aren’t the kind of numbers that warrant a high fantasy draft choice. To make matters worse, Brown had two receptions or less in 11 of the 15 games he has played. Brown also hasn’t been healthy dealing with a quad injury in camp.
The Cardinals wide out room is also packed. Jaron Brown returns from a season ending injury who played over Brown early in 2016 campaign. J.J. Nelson also has taken the role as the team’s deep threat limiting Brown’s home run chances. Arizona also drafted Chad Williams in the round as a bigger outside target.
Williams really flashed at the Senior Bowl and looks like he can contribute immediately. I haven’t even gotten to Larry Fitzgerald yet who has shown no signs of slowing down. Oh year, Arizona also has one of the best running backs in the league in David Johnson who will get his touches in both the run and pass game.
If you draft the Cardinals wide receiver, you’re also banking on a better year from Carson Palmer. Palmer, 37, is on his last leg and always struggles to finish a season. Regardless of who the Cardinals receiver is, if Palmer goes down, the backup option of Drew Stanton will hurt the fantasy production of the complementary pieces.
4. Allen Robinson
As mentioned earlier, my golden rule in fantasy is to not to draft a receiver that plays with a quarterback I can’t trust. Is there any quarterback in the league more untrustworthy than Blake Bortles? The Bortles experiment is likely coming to an end sometime soon with the new regime of Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone in Jacksonville. Since he entered the league in 2014, the Jaguars signal caller has thrown more interceptions than any quarterback in the league (63). With that in mind, Jacksonville has prioritized the rushing attack this season which hurts Robinson’s fantasy outlook.
Leonard Fournette, similar to Zeke Elliott last year, was drafted to be the workhorse back. The fourth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft will presumably get a big workload to limit Bortles struggles. Marrone is known as an offensive line guru so the strategy makes a lot of sense. With Bortles seemingly throwing the ball less on offense, Robinson’s targets will take a dip.
Was it all a dream? Robinson’s second-year breakout season may have just been a fluke. Robinson’s numbers dropped drastically from 2015 to 2016. The weirdest part of Robinson’s drop off was that he had just two fewer targets this past year.
2015: 1,400 yards – 14 touchdowns
2016: 883 yards – 6 touchdowns
Robinson, 23, still has to figure it out as teams can double team him with fluidity. Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee aren’t dynamic enough for that to change. Beware of drafting the former Penn State product, there hasn’t been any receiver more inconsistent from year to year.
3. Demaryius Thomas
The Denver Broncos are in for a rude awakening in 2017. Both Gary Kubiak, the offensive guru, and Wade Phillips, the defensive guru, have both been removed from their jobs for different reasons. Both coaches were vital towards the Broncos’ Super Bowl-winning effort in 2015. Now Denver will move forward with Mike McCoy and Vance Joseph, an obvious downgrade at both coaching spots.
The Vance Joseph head coaching hire was just a head-scratcher. Denver ranked fourth in the NFL in points allowed and yards allowed in 2016. Vance Joseph, the former Dolphins defensive coordinator, ran the No. 29 overall defense in Miami a year ago. That obviously means that the Broncos offense will have the ball a whole lot less with Joseph running the show.
The Broncos quarterback situation makes Thomas an obvious don’t eat the cheese candidate. Whether it’s Paxton Lynch or Trevor Siemian, the Broncos quarterback controversy is far from ideal. Lynch may need another year to sit while Siemian trended in the wrong direction late in the season. Siemian threw for two touchdowns and three interceptions the last three games of the season as it appeared the league figured him out. If Denver’s quarterbacks can’t produce in a new system, Thomas will likely be a fantasy bust.
Thomas despite his 6-foot-3 frame hasn’t been a touchdown scoring machine the past two seasons. He averaged 5.5 touchdowns over that time period and clearly hasn’t been the same player since Peyton Manning retired.
2. Davante Adams
Aaron Rodgers is a hell of a quarterback that part is obvious. Although if I had to bet, I would guess that Davante Adams averages less than 12 touchdowns in 2017 than he had in 2016. For a receiver that had less than 1,000 receiving yards a year ago, it seems awfully risky to bet on a 12 touchdown repeat.
Jordy Nelson is going to get his points as there may not be a quarterback – receiver combination that has better chemistry. The tight end addition of Martellus Bennett via free agency is the reason those 12 touchdowns seems unattainable. Bennett scored seven touchdowns with the Patriots in 2016 playing second fiddle to Gronk. Imagine what he can do with the Packers? Remember Jared Cook only had one touchdown with Green Bay.
The Packers, a team that figures to be very good could also look to burn the clock later in games. Ty Montgomery has emerged as a reliable running back for the Packers. Most of the last season, Green Bay did not have that reliable running back that could simply move the chains. Green Bay figures to be prohibitive favorites to win the division and obvious candidate to improve on a 10-6 season.
Green Bay will also get a healthy Randall Cobb back this year who obviously wasn’t healthy last season. The Packers also involved undrafted rookie Geronimo Allison more in the offense down the stretch. The final two games Allison caught 11 passes, for 157 yards, and a touchdown. For a quarterback like Rodgers that spreads the ball around so much, there’s a lot of bodies on offense that will limit Adams potential.
1. Odell Beckham
We know that Odell Beckham is a transformative player but this is more about potential targets. Often times in 2016, the Giants offense force fed Beckham as he was second in the NFL in targets a year ago (169). With the offseason additions of Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram, Beckham will likely have fewer opportunities to repeat his numbers from a year ago. Beckham was the fourth highest fantasy scoring wide receiver a year ago (1,367 yards and 10 touchdowns) but I have a feeling he will drop outside of the top 10 in 2017.
The Marshall and Engram offseason coups could have a drastic impact on Beckham’s scoring ability in the red zone. Marshall, 6-foot-4, and Engram, 6-foot-3, are much taller than the 5-foot-11 Beckham which could change the Giants mindset when calling up plays in the red zone. For those who are unfamiliar with Engram, make no mistake about it, the Giants first-round pick in a catch-first tight end. For the first time since the days of Jeremy Shockey, the Giants have a real tight end who they will certainly utilize.
Don’t forget about two second-year players that could impact things. Sterling Sheppard will likely be a bigger part of the offense as he will continue to improve after his rookie year. The same can be said about Paul Perkins where the Giants have a dependable running game for the first time in years. Perkins caught fire late in the year averaging 4.8 yards per carry where New York can start to burn the clock heading into the fourth quarter of games they have the lead.
Beckham is obviously a terrific player but he hasn’t impacted winning the way most fans would think. The Giants are 13-11 when Beckham scores a touchdown over the course of his career. The team actually has a higher winning percentage when he has less than 100 receiving yards compared to over 100 yards. This could be one of the reasons for the Giants offseason moves.
Next: Fantasy football: 5 running back busts in 2017
Keep in mind, Beckham also has a tendency to meltdown on the sideline which we have seen in the past. He had four games a year ago where he averaged less than five fantasy points. Don’t eat the cheese on Beckham in 2017!