Postseason basketball is on the horizon. Which NBA Draft prospects are trending toward a first-round pick?
March Madness is right around the corner, and with it comes a new wave of NBA Draft mania. NBA rosters have solidified after the trade deadline and the postseason picture is starting to take shape, so fans are speculating more than ever on where their team might end up in the draft — and, by extension, who they might pick.
When the NCAA Tournament kicks off, NBA fans and scouts alike will be tuned in to see which prospects rise to the occasion and which prospects fall flat. Every year, there’s a player who comes out of nowhere with a monster tournament performance and parlays it into an NBA opportunity.
Who gets picked in the first round of our 2023 NBA Mock Draft?
Per usual, the lottery order has been determined by Tankathon simulation. There’s no point in basing it strictly off the standings, because that’s now how the draft works. The future of the league will be determined by the bounces of a few ping-pong balls, however logical or illogical it may feel.
Last month, the Portland Trail Blazers rocketed up to the top spot. This month, one of the league’s foremost tankers is rewarded with the opportunity of a generation. Of course, when it comes to the actual picks 1-30, it’s impossible to account for the months of game tape and media narratives yet to unfold. Therefore, team fit and my personal evaluation of each prospect factors heavily into the decisions made here. As the draft gets closer and we get more intel on the thinking of individual front offices, future mocks will change to reflect that.
You can read our most recent top-60 prospect rankings right here!
Littered with multiple quality options at No. 30, the Pacers opt for the four-year senior from UCLA. A battle-tested upperclassman with a veteran’s demeanor and obvious glue guy potential, Jaquez would have no trouble acclimating to the Pacers’ balanced, selfless offensive ecosystem.
We’ve heard a lot about the Clippers’ desire for reinforcements in the backcourt this season — to the extent that they defied the protestations of their fanbase to sign the notoriously fickle Russell Westbrook. Marcus Sasser can provide immediate juice to the second unit with impressive shot-making and no shortage of competitive spirit.
Few 3-point shooters in college basketball have reached the level of Jordan Hawkins this season. He’s a gifted marksman who would have a field day receiving passes from LaMelo Ball.
Jalen Hood-Schifino’s unique combination of size and playmaking flare has him soaring up draft boards. The Jazz have invested a lot in Collin Sexton and Talen Horton-Tucker, but neither have been particularly impressive this year. Hood-Schifino brings size and versatility as a guard, but his reliance on difficult shots could give some GMs pause.
With multiple first-round picks at their disposal, the Pacers can afford to take the patient approach with a prospect like Leonard Miller. He’s not the most finely-tuned prospect on the board, but his combination of athleticism and skill at 6-foot-10 is uncommon. His flashes of connective playmaking and defensive versatility warrant a first-round investment.
At 6-foot-10, Coleman Hawkins presents Memphis with impressive defensive versatility and a diverse complementary skill set on offense. His 3-point numbers have been on a downswing lately, but there’s reason to believe he can correct course in the future.
A nimble wing defender with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, Rayan Rupert is one of the most interesting two-way prospects on the board. The Nets have a long list of 3-and-D wings on the roster currently, but Rupert’s potential as a secondary ball-handler gets him the nod here. Plus, you can’t really have too many quality defenders on the wing.
Without a hint of irony, the Kings select Kris Murray. There’s often value to be found in 6-foot-9 forwards who can move and shoot like Murray, something Sacramento proved interested in just last season when they drafted Murray’s twin brother, Keegan, with the No. 4 pick.
The Blazers are one long-anticipated Damian Lillard trade request away from full-on rebuild. The first place to start might be the frontcourt, where Jusuf Nurkic has seemingly aged out of winning basketball. DaRon Holmes is one of the best shot-blockers and rim runners on the board.
Brice Sensabaugh has been undeniable in his freshman season at Ohio State. Few underclassmen have approached his productivity on the offensive end. He’s clearly an elite shooter, needing very little space to bury his defender in an ocean of nylon. At 6-foot-5, he’s built like a tank. That said, his slow feet on defense could sink his draft stock. I’ll be seated for the Cam Thomas and Brice Sensabaugh bucket-seeking lineups in Brooklyn, though.
The Heat clearly thought it worthwhile to seek out the services of a versatile offensive big who can space the floor in Kevin Love. In Kyle Filipowski, they find more of a long-term solution. Filipowski has been the best player at Duke, and his skill set is such that he could either play behind Bam Adebayo or alongside him.
The Rockets are a mess of undisciplined, one-way players right now. Colby Jones won’t solve all their problems, but there’s a certain appeal in a player who so clearly profiles as a successful pro. While Jones may not possess star upside, he checks a ton of boxes across the board. His quick processing speeds, versatile defense, and bankable 3-point shot all suggest a long and fruitful career at the next level.
The Jazz swing for upside with GG Jackson, the ultra-young USC product who was originally expected to declare for the 2024 draft before heading to Columbia a year early. The decision may or may not work out in his favor: Jackson no longer projects as a top-five pick, but he’ll get an extra year of NBA salary and development to kickstart his career.
Noah Clowny, listed at 6-foot-9 with long arms and springy athleticism, wreaks absolute havoc on the defensive end for one of the best teams in college basketball. Tom Thibodeau isn’t always inclined to rely on young players, but Clowney’s hard-edged play could make him the rare exception.
Maxwell Lewis has all the hallmarks of an effective Swiss Army Knife: he competes hard on defense, shoots a beautiful 3-ball, and processes the game at a high level. He’s posting absurd numbers for Pepperdine, but he profiles more as a connective passer and finisher on a team led by LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
The John Collins era has to end at some point. It just has to. If the Hawks find themselves in the market for another power forward, Taylor Hendricks would be a logical choice here. He doesn’t possess much on-ball juice, but he’s a confident 3-point shooter and terrific team defender who would pair seamlessly with either Clint Capela or Onyeka Okongwu in the frontcourt.
The numbers paint a complicated picture of Dariq Whitehead, who has largely struggled to establish himself as a reliable threat for the loaded Blue Devils. Once hailed as a potential top-five pick and one of the draft’s surest bets, Whitehead’s stock is unexpectedly murky. His potential range on draft boards is quite wide.
For the season, Whitehead is shooting only 39.9 percent from the field. Multiple lower leg injuries have hampered his progress and disrupted his rhythm. The silver lining, however, is an impressive 41.0 percent clip from 3-point range on over seven attempts per game.
In theory, Whitehead is a positionally malleable defender and confident shot-maker who can score in a variety of ways. He made his name with impressive contested jumpers and go-to scoring flashes in high school. Right now, he just doesn’t have the legs for it. That said, his 3-point shooting and impressive passing ability suggest that he could fit comfortably into a more refined role on a team like Golden State.
The Warriors are quickly approaching an organizational crossroads. While Whitehead might not be the safe pick we all imagined him to be a few months ago, he possesses the right blend of evident skill, NBA athleticism, and untapped potential to warrant a lottery pick from Golden State.
Gradey Dick continues to torch the nets for Kansas. He’s arguably the best volume shooter on the board, which is already enough to attract NBA teams. What cements Dick in the lottery conversation, however, is the rest of his skill set.
On top of spacing the floor, Dick is great at moving without the ball and making himself available on cuts inside. If the defense closes out too fast, Dick is capable of driving the lane and finishing with impressive finesse at the rim. He’s a better athlete than your average shooting specialist and one heck of a passer for good measure.
Dick won’t ever run point — he lacks the burst to consistently beat his man off the dribble — but he makes rapid-fire decisions with the ball and possesses a tremendous sense of where his teammates are stationed around him. OKC already has two great lead ball-handlers in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. Add Dick to the mix, with Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren too, and it’s hard to poke holes in the Thunder supporting cast.
Dick would give OKC a much-needed boost in 3-point shooting while also bringing consistent effort to the defensive end. He’s 6-foot-7, so he would fit seamlessly into OKC’s relatively positionless core.
The Jazz rebuild is on a potentially accelerated timeline thanks to the brilliance of 25-year-old Lauri Markkanen. Enter Cason Wallace, who projects as a rock-solid NBA contributor from day one. Danny Ainge loves his star point guards, and while Wallace might not have the high ceiling of Kyrie Irving or even Boston-prime Isaiah Thomas, he’s plenty promising.
First and foremost, Wallace could be one of the league’s most disruptive perimeter defenders from the jump. He gets after it on that end of the floor, constantly bottling up ball-handlers at the point of attack with his 6-foot-8 wingspan. Let him roam in passing lanes, and Wallace will swiftly accumulate deflections and generate fast break opportunities.
Utah’s defense has been rocky all year, and the recent departure of Jarred Vanderbilt will do them no favors. Wallace might not be able to anchor a defense on the perimeter, but he’s more versatile than your typical 6-foot-3 guard and he’s an absolute tone-setter.
Offensively, there’s plenty to like as well. Wallace shoots a comfortable 3-ball and his soft touch on floaters is a positive indicator when projecting his scoring upside long-term. Wallace is a heady playmaker who thrives out of pick-and-rolls, and he’s capable of functioning off the ball next to other high-volume creators.
Son of former NBA All-Star Juwan Howard, Jett Howard has thrived under his father’s tutelage at Michigan. He’s a dynamite shooter with size at 6-foot-9. It’s not hard to see the appeal. Howard is a natural offensive complement to a player like Damian Lillard.
Howard moves fluidly without the ball and is more than a simple spot-up shooter — he can attack closeouts, work out of DHOs, or fly around screens and bury the defense with a pull-up jumper or feather-soft floater. His flashes of on-ball creation are tantalizing, even if his lack of explosive athleticism could limit him to purely complementary playmaking at the NBA level.
Defensively, Howard has a ways to go but there’s reason to believe in his progression on that end. He competes his tail off and, eventually, his high basketball I.Q. should translate to better positioning and fewer mistakes. He has the size to combat multiple positions, but his limited lateral quickness is a hindrance teams will have to account for.
The Blazers are still trying to win as long as Lillard is with the team. He appears committed to riding out his career in Portland for now, so getting a win-now piece like Howard makes sense. He’s going to extend defenses with his shooting and bring positive decision-making to Portland’s offense.
Those who have read previous installments of the mock draft have seen this pick before. The Raptors desperately need more offensive punch on the perimeter, and Keyonte George is tailor-made to provide it. He would be an immediate candidate to start for a team that, in theory, still has enough talent to make noise in the East.
George is a bonkers shot-maker. His high volume of 3s would open up more room for downhill drivers like Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes. Meanwhile, his ability to snake through defenders and create his own offense would give Toronto a much-needed bailout option when the halfcourt offense stalls (a frequent issue this season).
A strong driver who embraces contact at the rim, George can beat the defense every which way. He doesn’t have the most explosive first step, but he makes up for it with shifty handles and excellent change-of-pace ability. His confidence can get the best of him sometimes, but the Raptors have an excellent player development program and could help George refine the rougher edges of his offensive approach.
On defense, George uses his strength to stonewall guards and wings alike. He’s not the best defender on the board by any means, but he competes hard and doesn’t profile as a one-way player. His modest versatility is more than enough when one considers the bevy of lengthy athletes elsewhere on the Raptors’ roster.
The conversation around Brandon Miller right now has very little to do with basketball. He was recently linked to a murder in Tuscaloosa, in which he provided the weapon eventually used by a former teammate to commit the crime. It’s not a good look, made worse by Alabama’s blatant and distasteful desire to move past the controversy as quickly as possible.
How it will ultimately impact Miller’s draft stock feels like a matter of very little importance in the wake of such a tragedy. In a recent report from Adam Zagoria of ZagsBlog, NBA executives were split on the implications of Miller’s alleged involvement. Right now, Miller is not a suspect in the crime, only a corroborative witness, and Alabama has no plans to suspend him.
Strictly in terms of basketball, it has been difficult to find fault in the freshman’s performance this season for Alabama. He’s the best player on one of the nation’s top teams and he’s fresh off an impressive 41-point performance on the road, which included the game-winning bucket in overtime.
At 6-foot-9, Miller brings an undeniable blend of size and shooting to the perimeter. He’s hitting 43.1 percent of his 3s for the season and he continues to obliterate college defenses with the mid-range game. The Pelicans are loaded to the gills with talented prospects and depth pieces, so a player with Miller’s obvious star upside is a perfectly reasonable gamble if they truly believe his involvement in the aforementioned crime was only incidental. That said, the information currently available paints an ugly picture and teams have much to consider beyond the basketball court.
Orlando is loaded with young talent across the board, but there’s a vast disparity between the talent in the frontcourt and the talent in the backcourt. Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs, and Cole Anthony are all NBA players — even good NBA players — but the real building blocks for that team are Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
So, with little room to bolster the frontcourt rotation, the Magic instead focus on elevating the backcourt. Anthony Black is the perfect player to do so — and he’s the exact type of player every NBA team is salivating over these days.
A jumbo-sized playmaker who can oscillate between guard and wing, Black would provide the Magic will more connective tissue on the offensive end. There are valid concerns about his inconsistency beyond the arc, but Black’s quick processing speeds, playmaking acumen, and deeply unselfish approach should elevate those around him on a nightly basis. He can run pick-and-rolls and push the tempo in transition, but he’s not a guard who needs to dominate possessions to impact winning. A good thing, considering how often the ball should be in the hands of Banchero or Wagner moving forward.
It’s easy to draw parallels between Black and other recently coveted lottery picks, such as Lonzo Ball or Dyson Daniels. He’s a versatile and impactful team defender and master of small things. What he may lack in flash or individual scoring prowess, Black makes up for with intelligence and hustle.
The Hornets are the most depressing team in basketball right now. Aside from the joy one derives from watching LaMelo Ball, there’s not much to get excited about. The team is still paying Gordon Hayward north of $30 million, there’s no imminent solution to the Miles Bridges exodus that should make anyone feel good, and the young prospects outside of Ball continue to fall short of expectations.
Charlotte is unintentionally mired in a rebuild, and in today’s league, the clock is already ticking to build a competent team around Ball before the possibility of a trade demand arises. Charlotte’s biggest area of weakness, even with Steve Clifford resuming control of the team, has been defense. They just have no backbone on that side of the ball.
Enter Jarace Walker, who profiles as possibly the best defensive player of the 2023 draft. Built like a tank at 6-foot-9, Walker can evaporate passing lanes or swoop in from the weak side to erase shot attempts at the rim. He hustles relentlessly and is one of the rare mega-athletes who actually has the strength and quickness to feasibly guard five positions at the next level.
Walker’s tone-setting energy and defensive versatility would be a much-welcomed addition to the Charlotte frontcourt — especially after the team traded Jalen McDaniels, one of its best defenders, for next to nothing at the trade deadline. Walker also has some playmaking juice, constantly working from the elbow, carving out space inside with his chiseled frame, and working the ball to open teammates. He would pair fascinatingly with LaMelo.
Nick Smith Jr. has appeared in only nine games to date for Arkansas, with multiple knee maladies casting a long shadow over his NBA Draft case. That said, Smith impresses whenever he’s on the floor and his strong track record dates back to high school. Teams should be interested early in the lottery.
For the Spurs, Smith would immediately take over a significant role in the second unit. While the success of Tre Jones and even rookie Malaki Branham is worth noting, the Spurs’ current backcourt feels mostly transitional outside of Devin Vassell. Smith would be a legitimate building block offensively.
One of the most talented shot-makers on the board, Smith would elevate San Antonio’s rather middling scoring profile. He can slice defenses apart with twitchy handles and a deep bag working the in-between game. Smith’s touch around the rim is star-level stuff, and it simultaneously makes it easy to buy him as a 3-point shooter long-term, even if his current numbers are more erratic than NBA teams might want.
Smith has excellent size for a combo guard at 6-foot-5, possessing long arms and plenty of athleticism that he translates to positive-impact defense. He’s more of a scorer than a playmaker right now, but Smith flashes his passing upside enough to warrant optimism. With Jones playing set-up man and Vassell carrying a large portion of the playmaking burden, Smith would be well-positioned to succeed in San Antonio under the guidance of Gregg Popovich.
The Hornets are the most depressing team in the NBA, but Houston might be the most directionless. The talent is there on the surface — Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun are legitimate building blocks — but the lack of discipline and winning spirit on the roster is disheartening to watch.
It’s difficult to call Houston the best landing spot for any prospect as a result. But, on paper, Cam Whitmore would be well-positioned to maximize his skill set while accentuating the other core pieces on Houston’s roster.
At 6-foot-7, the Villanova product is one of the draft’s many absurd athletes. With the explosive downhill speed of a running back and unfathomable leaping ability, Whitmore has little trouble collapsing defenses and putting pressure on the rim. He’s great at powering through contact, an attribute that figures to survive the always-challenging transition to the NBA.
Whitmore hasn’t had the most consistent season, but the pathway to stardom is plain for all to see. He has the power and strength of the NBA’s best wings, combined with shot-making potential at all three levels and legitimate All-Defense capacity if he puts his mind to it. Whitmore would have a field day exploding down the lane out of DHOs with Sengun. Meanwhile, between him and Green, the Rockets should be able to get into the paint at will.
The Pacers luck into a top-4 pick and get to complement the impressive duo of Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner with one of the draft’s most exciting athletes. Ausar Thompson has been out of the spotlight playing in Atlanta’s Overtime Elite league, but do not be fooled by the absence of national television appearances — he’s going to be very good very quickly.
Thompson profiles as the perfect backcourt partner for Haliburton. He brings size (6-foot-7) and elite defensive versatility. Thompson gets after it on defense, using his springboard athleticism to break up passing lanes or to lock all windows and doors on his man. The Pacers currently lack that perimeter stopper.
On the offensive end, Thompson provides Indiana with another high-level processor and playmaker. Thompson sees the game unfold at light speed, a rare trait for a 20-year-old without college or high-level professional experience. He’s great at kickstarting transition opportunities with hit-ahead passes off the rebound. In the halfcourt, he can operate out of pick-and-rolls or thrive off cuts and as a connective passer.
Thompson’s big red flag is his inconsistency from 3-point land. The Pacers have enough shooting to cover for him in the meantime, but Thompson does have to work hard to become a reliable spot-up shooter — especially if he’s going to maximize his partnership with a point guard like Haliburton. But, assuming Thompson can shoot respectably from deep, he would be primed for success in Indiana.
Amen Thompson, twin brother of Ausar and the pride of Overtime Elite, has to be considered the tentative favorite to go No. 3 right now — there’s stiff competition, but it’s hard to deny the intersection of skill and athleticism here.
In a year’s time, Thompson will be widely regarded as one of the league’s premier athletes. He’s the kind of downhill driver teams just can’t keep out of the paint, even with his 3-point shot being a well-documented weakness. Thompson also provides defensive versatility at 6-foot-7 and one of the sharpest playmaking eyes you’ll find in a 20-year-old.
The Magic get two top-8 picks because of the Nikola Vucevic trade and use them to essentially establish their backcourt of the future. Thompson terrorizing the lane, with Banchero and Wagner attacking off the wings and Anthony Black tying it all together, is a tantalizing thought. Then there’s Wendell Carter Jr. bringing ample skill to the 5 spot and Markelle Fultz running the second unit. That’s a real team.
Thompson has to get better from 3-point range and it would behoove him to get more experienced working without the ball, as both Banchero and Wagner deserve ball-handling reps. But he’s a special athlete with special intelligence, so it’s easy to believe in his long-term progression.
Scoot Henderson has dramatically strengthened his grip on the projected No. 2 spot with a dominant season in the G-League. In years without a certain French big man in the mix, it wouldn’t be hard to envision Henderson as a worthy No. 1 pick. And thus, the Wizards would have to be psyched about the lottery outcome here.
Ever since the John Wall trade and the subsequent semi-successful year of Westbrook, fans have been bemoaning the lack of backcourt help for Bradley Beal. Henderson should be more than worthy of co-starring next to Beal from day one. An explosive driver who brings some of that Westbrookian spunk and competitive fire, Henderson would electrify a Wizards team that too often feels dead in the water.
Henderson is a bolt of lightning with the ball on a string, frequently zig-zagging through defenders before detonating above the rim with thunderous force. He can chuck bad shots every now and then, but generally, Henderson is an efficient three-level scorer who has very few weaknesses in his offensive profile.
He’s only 6-foot-2, but Henderson plays much bigger than that defensively due to his ridiculous 6-foot-9 wingspan. He can defend either guard spot and he’s strong enough to battle bigger players on switches.
A truly generational prospect, the 7-foot-5 Victor Wembanyama is all but guaranteed the No. 1 spot on draft night. In this case, the Pistons are the team parading through the streets on lottery night. Wembanyama has the potential to be one of the league’s best two-way players from the jump.
He’s prone to mistakes on defense, but Wemby has the unique luxury of being able to gamble and over-help on defense almost without consequence because of his speed and length. He can recover from “mistakes” unlike anyone else, frequently transforming blow-bys into poster-worthy rejections.
On the offensive end, Wembanyama has progressed from a spot-up shooter and play-finisher to a legitimate go-to scorer in France. He’s bringing the ball up the court, navigating tight spaces off the dribble, and hitting absurd contested pull-up jumpers from everywhere on the court. His recent trend of hitting running, one-legged 3s feels like a distinct homage to Luka Doncic. He’s going to break brains in the NBA.
The Pistons already have a former No. 1 pick in Cade Cunningham to carry the rebuild forward next to Wemby. Health has been an issue, but when healthy, Cunningham is an absurdly well-rounded 6-foot-7 playmaker who would surely benefit from Wemby’s diverse offensive repertoire. Add Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, and Wemby’s fellow Frenchman Killian Hayes to the mix, and the Detroit young core smells like the future.
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