It’s March and the nation’s best teams are dancing. The tournament could have a pronounced effect on the 2023 NBA Draft.
It’s the best month of the year for basketball fans. We’ve already been treated to multiple historic upsets and some dominant performances from college basketball’s top programs. Naturally, NBA scouts will be glued to the action. What better atmosphere in which to evaluate talent than the biggest stage in college sports?
Meanwhile, we are in the final stretch of the NBA regular season and teams are beginning to act accordingly: the tankers are tanking, some of the winners are resting (shouts to Denver, they haven’t tried in a week), and the play-in hopefuls refuse to budge, making the whole draft picture a bit muddy.
The West has been particularly difficult to sift through this season. The line between contenders and pretenders is more clearly defined in the East, but even still, you have teams like Chicago, Washington, and Toronto desperately trying to salvage what most would consider lost seasons.
Who gets picked in the first round of our 2023 NBA Mock Draft?
We have once again determined the lottery order via Tankathon simulation. No matter how ardently a team loses, a couple bounces of the ping-pong ball could take them right out of the Wemby sweepstakes. It’s a cruel world.
Last month, the Detroit Pistons struck gold with the No. 1 pick. This time around, they face a more difficult decision at No. 2 — the kind of decision that could determine the success of their rebuild and shape the NBA for a decade to come.
You can read our top-60 prospect rankings right here. And now, for the main event…
The Clippers strike on Brice Sensabaugh, one of the best scorers in college basketball. His efficiency — especially relative to the volume and difficulty of his shot attempts — is hard to ignore. That said, he’s quite the turnstile on defense right now.
Dereck Lively has finally rounded into form at Duke. Bigs with his size, mobility, and athleticism don’t grow on trees. The Pacers have plenty of depth in the frontcourt and Myles Turner just signed an extension, but Lively’s raw talent and two-way upside next to Tyrese Haliburton warrants an investment. Indiana has multiple first-round picks to play with.
The Jazz fill the hole left by Jarred Vanderbilt to some extent. Coleman Hawkins has flashed shooting range out to the 3-point line and he’s everywhere on defense. He’s the ideal modern 4 to develop alongside Walker Kessler in the frontcourt.
GG Jackson’s lack of efficiency is hardly surprising considering that he’s the youngest player in college basketball. He was always going to face a steeper learning curve than his peers, but not many 6-foot-9 forwards combine strength, maneuverability, and shot-making upside like Jackson. He’s a worthwhile upside swing for the aimless Hornets.
The Pacers have an elite floor general, a rim protector, and a nice collection of complementary scorers. In Julian Phillips, they get a gutsy defensive stopper on the wing who profiles as a strong connective passer and play finisher on offense.
Trayce Jackson-Davis has put together several eye-popping stat lines for the Hoosiers. His twisty footwork, above-the-rim finishing ability, and dynamic passing flashes make him one of the more compelling centers in the draft — even if he’s slightly undersized. Injuries have decimated the Grizzlies’ frontcourt this season. Jackson-Davis could be worth a look.
The Kings have one of the best offenses in the NBA, primarily because they have surrounded the dynamic duo of Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox with a collection of high-level shooters. Jordan Hawkins makes one more. His movement shooting should carry over seamlessly to the next level.
The Blazers add defensive versatility and secondary playmaking to complement Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons in the backcourt. Cissoko has come on strong of late for the G-League Ignite.
The Nets bolster their already-strong wing rotation with Colby Jones, a multi-faceted player who doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses. A player like Jones could take on elevated importance if Cam Johnson’s price gets too high in free agency.
Perhaps the biggest late-season riser on draft boards, Brandin Podziemski would provide the Nets with some useful shot creation in the backcourt. At 6-foot-6, he brings size and competitive defense to the fold too. Mikal Bridges is thriving as a No. 1 option, but even so, the Nets are short on bonafide creators (especially if, long term, you question Cam Thomas’ ability to do anything other than shoot).
The Heat signed Kevin Love for stopgap support in the frontcourt, but it would be smart to target size and shooting in the draft. Kris Murray could slide into an important rookie-season role as a polished decision-maker and translatable offensive talent. His twin brother went No. 4 in last season’s draft — don’t be shocked in NBA front offices notice the unavoidable parallels.
Broadly speaking, Houston has a strong collection of young talent. Jalen Green is a mesmerizing athlete and scorer, Alperen Sengun is a legitimate offensive cornerstone, and Jabari Smith’s recent flashes have restored faith in his development. But, still, Houston needs to learn how to play defense eventually. Rayan Rupert has a 7-foot-3 wingspan and a unique talent for shutting down ball-handlers.
The questions about Draymond Green’s future with the Warriors haven’t gone away. Golden State is on the precipice of a pivotal, potentially foundation-shaking offseason. Noah Clowney would be a wise investment for his defensive versatility and insatiable appetite for stops.
Jalen Hood-Schifino brings size and playmaking to Utah’s depleted backcourt. His silk-soft floaters and passing wizardry would quickly endear him to the Jazz faithful, even if his inconsistency as a long-range shooter and struggles finishing in traffic are cause for mild trepidation.
Dariq Whitehead just hasn’t been himself at Duke. Injuries sapped away his elevation and he has struggled to develop any sort of rhythm on a team loaded with future NBA players. OKC should be willing to look past the short-term struggles and remember why Whitehead was once billed as a potential top-five pick.
John Collins’ production is in the gutter and Quin Snyder’s arrival has only made it more apparent that Collins’ future likely lies elsewhere. If the Hawks are looking for alternatives at the 4 spot, Taylor Hendricks’ blend of shooting and defensive playmaking could pique their interest.
The Lakers will probably spend next season making another last-ditch effort to build a winner around LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Their moves at the trade deadline actually strengthened their chances of doing so.
LA could go any number of directions here, but the NBA is a wing’s league right now. Maxwell Lewis hasn’t gotten the national shine of other collegiate stars playing out of Pepperdine, but he’s the ideal Swiss Army Knife for a team built around two superstars like Los Angeles.
Lewis has struggled occasionally under the burden of a featured role, but his numbers across the board remain impressive. He shoots a pretty 3-ball and he’s excellent at attacking off the catch, obliterating college defenders with his shifty, stop-start handles.
It’s hard to imagine a better situation for Lewis than LA. He would get plenty of clean looks from deep and the opportunity to attack rotating defenses while LeBron and AD draw attention to the paint. His passing chops and 6-foot-10 wingspan should only cement the Lakers’ confidence.
The Knicks have been surprisingly sturdy on both sides of the ball this season, thanks in no small part to Julius Randle’s return to All-Star form and the skyward trajectory of Jalen Brunson. The Josh Hart trade at the deadline furthered strengthened the supporting cast for one of the NBA’s most compelling postseason underdogs.
Looking forward, however, the Knicks do still have holes to plug. Another shooter would do them good. Jett Howard checks a lot of boxes in today’s NBA: at 6-foot-8, he can swish 3s with pinpoint accuracy and contribute amply on the margins offensively.
The son of current Michigan head coach and former NBA star Juwan Howard, basketball clearly runs in the family. Jett is one of the most NBA-ready offensive players in the draft, consistently moving without the ball and shooting off screens. He plays with his head on a swivel and flashes shot-making upside that goes beyond his current role-player projections.
What will make or break Howard at the next level is defense. He competes hard but he’s not the greatest athlete and he’s still very mistake-prone (who isn’t at 19 years old?). In that sense, who better to coach him up than Tom Thibodeau? Check back next season to see if I actually believe that.
The Raptors’ experiment of exclusively playing 6-foot-8 wings and Fred VanVleet hit a wall this season. At some point, you need to balance the offense and boost the shooting numbers. Gradey Dick would be a positive step in the right direction.
Starring for one of the best programs in college basketball as a freshman, Dick has flashed NBA potential from day one. He’s an absolutely elite shooter, flying around screens and hitting every manner of 3-pointer with regularity. His volume shooting potential is the main draw here for Toronto.
That said, Dick is not simply a shooting specialist. He’s a springy athlete at 6-foot-7, frequently getting out in transition and playing above the rim. In the halfcourt setting, Dick is already great at moving without the ball, making timely cuts to the rim and selflessly moving the ball to keep the offense flowing. He processes the game at a high level and is comfortable putting the ball on the floor.
He will get targeted on defense because of his lightweight frame, but Dick competes hard and has a promising blend of size and athleticism for a wing with such glorious shooting mechanics. Toronto also has the defensive infrastructure to limit Dick’s liability.
Utah dealt Mike Conley at the trade deadline and began their rebuild in earnest. The current backcourt has flashed ample potential, but neither Collin Sexton nor Talen Horton-Tucker are primary creators for a good team. Cason Wallace gives them a potential point guard of the future.
Wallace’s defensive reputation is the main draw here. It’s risky to invest lottery picks in smaller guards whose primary talent is defense, the best recent example being Davion Mitchell in Sacramento. That said, Wallace is fairly unique. He wields a 6-foot-8 wingspan and simply plays much bigger than his height. Kentucky regularly relies on Wallace to stonewall wings.
The Jazz already have an elite rim protector in Walker Kessler. Bringing Wallace’s elite on-ball defense into the fold would give Utah one of the more exciting defensive foundations in the NBA. Wallace gets after it every possession, constantly worming his way into ball-handler’s psyche with ceaseless effort and expert timing.
Wallace isn’t an offensive liability either. He’s a good shooter who can play on or off the ball. His scalability is especially valuable projecting forward. When asked to handle primary duties, Wallace makes sound decisions and he should be comfortable operating out of pick-and-rolls. The Jazz, however, have other playmakers to ease his burden — and make it a priority to draft another talented, versatile ball-handler later in the draft.
The Pelicans’ season hasn’t gone as planned, but they’re still one of the most promising young teams in the NBA. With depth at every position and multiple All-Star level pieces in place, a top-10 pick is mere luxury for New Orleans.
Enter Keyonte George, one of the most explosive scorers in college basketball who profiles as an instant-impact player at the next level. The most immediately translatable skill for George is his 3-point shooting. He’s one of the most versatile shooters in the class. Off movement, pulling up, standing still, it doesn’t matter. George will make the defense pay.
The Pelicans would also be investing in George’s upside as a creator. He may not get too many on-ball reps early on with the Pelicans, but George would likely get his opportunity to shine with the second unit. He’s comfortable navigating tight spaces off the bounce, using step-backs or side-steps to shed defenders before drowning them with pull-up jumpers. He doesn’t have the most explosive first step, but George makes up for it with craft. As a passer, he’s great at poking around the middle of the floor before zipping a line drive to the open shooter or cutter.
George is also a positive defender for his size, possessing impressive strength and a genuine desire to get stops. He’s only 6-foot-4, so there’s a natural defensive ceiling, but there isn’t a more complete player on the board in this range.
The Wizards are still stuck in NBA no man’s land, unable to mount a serious run in the East but not bad enough to properly join the Wemby sweepstakes. Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis have formed quite the offensive tandem, but Washington could use another two-way contributor on the perimeter — especially given the questions about Kyle Kuzma’s future with the franchise.
Anthony Black profiles as an immediate positive-impact player and a comfortable fit next to Beal in the backcourt. Washington spent a lottery pick on a guard last summer, but with Johnny Davis coming along slowly, a more imminently successful guard like Black could interest them.
Black is maybe the best intangibles prospect in the lottery. He doesn’t need to dominate touches to influence winning at the highest level. He’s a heady, high-effort defender and one of the quickest processors on the board. He plays a free-flowing and unselfish style, making snappy decisions and keeping the ball in motion. A lot of comps have been made to Lonzo Ball.
While Black pails in comparison to Ball as a perimeter shooter, there’s reason for optimism on that front. Even if he struggles in the meantime, Black’s playmaking eye and connective-tissue skill set should still prove useful. At 6-foot-7, he provides excellent size and versatility at his position.
Injuries kept Nick Smith Jr. out of the lineup for a large chunk of the season at Arkansas, but what we have seen is enough to keep him in the top 10. Orlando has one of the strongest young cores in the NBA, complete with talent at virtually every position. That said, one area of perceived weakness is still the backcourt.
Both Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony are NBA players. Fultz has been great down the stretch of this season, setting the table for an offense built around the flexible skill sets of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. But, Fultz’s ceiling is unavoidably limited if he’s such a low-volume threat from deep.
Smith is the ideal fit, as he is quite flexible in his own right. A talented shot-maker who can thrive on or off the ball, he would be able to fit with various different personnel groups. His 3-point shooting has been more erratic than one might like, but Smith’s feather-soft touch inside the arc is a strong indicator of future shooting success. He’s the king of floaters and touch shots, torching defenders with gear shifts and speed changes before floating high-arcing shots right over top. If he can get better at embracing contact and getting all the way to the rim, Smith has All-Star combo guard potential.
He’s a plus defender too. At 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-8 wingspan, Smith would be right at home with Orlando’s collection of long-armed youngsters. He competes hard on both ends and has no shortage of competitive spirit.
The Pacers suddenly have the most intimidating defensive frontcourt in the NBA between Myles Turner and Jarace Walker. It may take the Houston product some time to establish himself at the next level, but it’s hard to imagine a world in which Walker doesn’t turn into an absolute wrecking ball for Indiana to wield against opposing offenses.
Walker is built like an NFL linebacker. He can credibly guard all 5 positions, regularly banging bodies in the post or chasing guards along the perimeter. He crashes the glass and could serve both as Turner’s frontcourt co-star and his backup. The Pacers would immediately have a small-ball option for the playoffs.
Offensively, Walker would thrive as a rim-runner next to Tyrese Haliburton. He has great hands and feather-soft touch, capable of rumbling downhill like Derrick Henry without losing control. Turner can space the floor at the 5, which would mitigate short-term concerns about Walker’s inconsistency from deep.
A versatile offensive player who probably isn’t being used to his full potential in college, Walker’s upside goes far beyond defense and rim runs. He’s a good passer for his size and could operate as a playmaking hub on the elbow, a la Julius Randle. He’s a true triple threat, with mid-range touch, the ability to bully his way to the rim, or the awareness to find open shooters on the perimeter.
The Spurs suddenly have extreme depth on the wing, toggling between Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, and Whitmore. That’s a good problem to have, of course. All four can defend, all four can score in various ways, and all four project as useful contributors long-term as San Antonio continues to build.
Whitmore is an absurd athlete. His explosive first step and pogo-stick leaping ability will have NBA scouts seeing stardom. His production has been up and down at Villanova, but Whitmore has managed to influence every aspect of the game for the Wildcats.
On the offensive end, Whitmore is always in the paint. His blend of speed and strength driving the lane is hard to match. Off the ball, he’s a willing cutter and top-notch transition threat who plays comfortably above the rim. If he can polish his handles and get more consistent shooting off the bounce, Whitmore could very well be San Antonio’s best player.
There’s just as much to be excited about with Whitmore on the defensive end. He’s 6-foot-7 with 232 pounds of solid muscle and balletic feet. He glides over screens and feverishly shuts down ball-handlers at the point of attack. Let him roam off the ball, and he’s liable to sneak over and send shots into the crowd. He’s a two-way highlight machine and quite the value pick at No. 6.
There has been a lot of buzz about Kevin Porter Jr. being a burdensome presence in the Houston locker room. True or not, the Rockets certainly do not have the team-wide discipline needed to develop in a meaningful way right now. I have a feeling the issues go well beyond Porter, but at the same time, I do question whether or not Porter’s play style is conducive to winning at the highest level.
He could be a great sixth man, or even a reliable complementary scorer if he’s willing to check his ego and buy-in. But, to keep a long point short, Houston should not be afraid to target a new backcourt running mate for Jalen Green. Especially when that new backcourt running mate is Ausar Thompson.
Thompson may or may not be a natural point guard, especially early in his career, but he’s a razor-sharp processor who’s quite comfortable with the ball in hand. At 6-foot-7, he’s a ball-on-string handler who moves with the propulsion of a 10-cylinder engine. He’s a blur, getting into the paint whenever he wants and frequently playing above the rim in transition.
The dunks coming out of Houston’s backcourt would be absolutely spectacular. They already are, but Green and Thompson would give defenses a headache with sheer speed and explosiveness. Green needs to trim the fat from his shot chart and Thompson needs to prove that he can consistently hit 3s, but the Rockets should have extreme faith in that duo.
Orlando is loading up on backcourt talent here. Amen Thompson, twin brother of Ausar, is even more explosive off the bounce. It has been commonplace to refer to him as an instant paint touch. Defenses are generally comfortable sagging off Thompson at the 3-point line and it seldom matters.
For the Magic, Thompson has to feel like an absolute steal at No. 4. Factor in the Nick Smith pick at No. 8, and suddenly Orlando has its backcourt of the future. In Thompson, a speedy slasher and facilitator. In Smith, a shifty score-first guard and play finisher. This complicates the future of Markelle Fultz and especially Cole Anthony, but Orlando doesn’t have any better options here. A Thompson-Smith-Wagner-Banchero-Carter starting five is going places.
At 6-foot-7 Thompson, is plenty versatile on the defensive end. The Magic would maintain elite size at every position while adding a table-setter with more upside than Fultz. Thompson can make every pass in the book and he’s a nutty finisher in the paint, elevating above the crowd with ease and possessing elite body control. He’s maybe the best athlete in a lottery filled with impressive athletes.
He’s already a disciplined and impactful on-ball defender, although there will definitely be a learning curve going from Overtime Elite to the NBA. Thompson is the rare mega-athlete who also thinks the game better than most of his peers. The expectation here is multiple All-Star appearances if all goes to plan.
Another impossibly fun backcourt forged in the fires of lottery-bound purgatory. The Hornets might just be the most directionless team in the NBA, barely tethered to relevancy by the simple fact that Golden State made the inexplicable decision to pass up LaMelo Ball with the No. 2 pick a few years ago.
Now Scoot joins the mix and things start to feel exciting. Henderson has drawn comparisons to the Russell Westbrook of old for his explosive downhill attacks and blustering competitive verve. He wants to embarrass you, and more often than not, he succeeds.
Henderson is already comfortable picking apart defenses out of the pick-and-roll. He reads the floor well and is virtually impossible to stop once he gains a step on his defender. Shot selection and some worrying 3-point variance have led many to question Scoot’s standing near the top of draft boards, but they’re overthinking it. He moves like a tank-Ferrari crossbreed, he can score from anywhere on the floor, and he’s a determined defensive stopper with a 6-foot-8 wingspan.
The fit with Ball is interesting, as Henderson has never really spent much time off the ball. He’s a point guard through and through, but the modern NBA is full of successful lineups featuring multiple ball-handlers. If Henderson can consistently hit spot-up 3s, one has to imagine he would benefit from LaMelo’s gravity and playmaking acumen (and vice versa).
The buzz around Brandon Miller is growing stronger. He has been the best freshman in college basketball by a country mile and Alabama is the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. If Miller powers the Crimson Tide on a deep run, that only increases the odds of him cracking the top 2 — a possibility that, just a couple months ago, would have felt completely incomprehensible.
If Detroit lands in the 2 spot, then it gets even more likely. Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey are cemented as the Pistons’ backcourt of the future. Are they going to pick ball-dominant guards like Scoot or Amen, or does Miller’s size (6-foot-9), elite 3-point shooting, and offensive flexibility hold greater appeal?
The off-court stuff with Miller is pretty alarming, but without getting too deep into the weeds, let’s just say that NBA teams have flimsy moral fiber when a really good basketball player is on the line. Miller has already been tied to Detroit specifically, according to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, and NBA executives have noted the 20-year-old’s ability to play at a high level despite “heightened scrutiny” following Miller’s alleged ties to a murder in Tuscaloosa (hot take: NBA teams might be a little too focused on the wrong part of that sentence!).
On the court, however, Miller continues to prove his talent every night. He would fit comfortably on the wing for Detroit, splashing 3s and attacking off passes from the aforementioned guard duo. If Miller develops his passing acumen and gets more comfortable finishing through contact at the rim, he has genuine All-Star potential.
Portland wins our lottery simulation (again!) and gets Victor Wembanyama, the crown jewel of the 2023 NBA Draft. He’s the most hyped prospect since LeBron James, a 7-foot-4 marvel with remarkable offensive skill and sky-high defensive potential.
Wembanyama has developed at a rapid rate for Metropolitans 92 in France. Once mostly a play finisher with the occasional flash of high-level shooting, Wemby is now handling the ball in pick-and-rolls and shooting one-legged fadeaways from 3. His release point might be actually unblockable, so he doesn’t need much space to create a good look at the basket.
The Blazers suddenly form a thrilling cross-section of the old generation and the new generation. Damian Lillard has practically aged into NBA royalty. He’s the grizzled vet, the guy who goes on podcasts and talks about the good ol’ days. Wemby is the perfect modern big, skilled on the perimeter with the ability to completely wall off the paint on defense. Portland has been losing ground in the race to build a contender around Dame in his prime. Wemby would be a welcomed boon — he’s going to be very good right away.
He also fills a position of need, not that it really matters when talking about a prospect of Wembanyama’s caliber. But Jusuf Nurkic has declined precipitously this season and the Blazers’ rim protection (or lack thereof) has been a real point of weakness. Wemby is a fast and easy solution.