Betsided

Army vs Navy Odds, Analysis, and Prediction (Bet on the Black Nights)

Who will raise the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy Saturday night?

By Kyle Vander Schauw

Army v Navy
Army v Navy / Edward Diller/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

For the 125th time the Army Black Knights will take on the Navy Midshipmen in what is known as “America’s Game”. This year’s meeting will be held at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland at 3:00pm EST on Saturday December 14th.

The Black Knights enter this game with an 11-1 record and are seeking their first 12-win season in program history after claiming the American Conference title a week ago. Navy on the other hand enters this game with a record of 8-3; their first winning season since 2019 and they are looking to snap a two game losing streak to the Black Knights.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Army Black Knights vs Navy Midshipmen Odds

Spread:

  • Army -6.5 (-118)
  • Navy +6.5 (-104)

Moneyline:

  • Army -260
  • Navy +210

Total:

  • Over 39.5 (-114)
  • Under 39.5 (-106)

Army Black Knights Analysis

The Black Knights possess the nation’s number one ranked rushing offense; quarterback Bryson Daily has racked up 1,480 yards on the ground to go with 29 touchdowns while sophomore running back Kanye Udoh has added over a thousand rushing yards and added 10 touchdowns to an Army offense that averages an astonishing 314.4 rushing yards per game (rpg) while scoring 32.9 points per game (ppg).

Daily’s 29 rushing touchdowns are tied with Ashton Jeanty of Boise State for the most in the country.

Army has always possessed great rushing attacks, which is why the real story is the Army defense. The Black Knights defense allows only 104 rpg which ranks 11th in the nation and they possess the 7th best scoring defense in the country, holding opponents to only 15 ppg.

Navy Midshipmen Analysis

Navy’s offense is just as explosive as the Black Knights; averaging 32.8 ppg behind a run heavy offense that averages 247.7 yards on the ground but they also have the ability to throw the ball. Junior quarterback Blake Horvath has posted 1,154 yards through the air with 11 touchdowns while also leading the Navy offense with 895 yards on the ground and 13 touchdowns.

The health of Horvath is a major question surrounding the Midshipmen. Horvath left Navy’s loss against Tulane three weeks ago with back spasms and he missed the season finale against East Carolina and his status for this game is still up in the air.

Eli Heidenreich is a key player to watch for Navy. The junior running back has posted 999 yards from scrimmage and eight total touchdowns.

On the flip side of the ball the Navy defense has been in the middle of the pack allowing a respectable 23.2 ppg but they have struggled against run heavy offenses. The Midshipmen allowed 274 yards on the ground to Memphis, 265 to Notre Dame, and 220 to Tulane, and while Navy knows Army is going to run the ball, it's an entirely different thing to be able to stop it.

Army vs Navy Prediction and Pick

Army opened as 4.5-point favorite and very quickly the line has moved to 6.5. It’s a significant movement in a short period but it does fit recent trends in this game. Eight of the last ten meetings have been one score games, with Army going 6-3-1 ATS in those 10 games, but they were only favored twice in the last 10 meetings.

I don’t like getting the worse of the number, but I am backing Army in this game. I do expect Horvath to be active for Navy, but a nagging back issue for a run first quarterback against a talented Army defense is going to hurt the Midshipmen offense. Lastly, the dynamic duo of Daily and Udoh is going to wear down the Navy defense and allow Army to win and cover the spread.

Prediction: Army Black Knights -6.5 (-118)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Home/NCAAF Picks