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Best NFL Against the Spread Picks for Divisional Round (Target Baltimore, Philadelphia)

Here are 2 ATS picks to consider for the Divisional Round.

By Shelby Dermer

Jan 11, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) looks to pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the third quarter in an AFC wild card game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images
Jan 11, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) looks to pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the third quarter in an AFC wild card game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images
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We’re down to just eight teams remaining for a shot at the Lombardi Trophy. 

Wild Card Weekend was underwhelming overall with five games decided by double figures. Washington was the only outlier as the lone wild card team to advance in a thrilling 23-20 road win over the NFC South-champion Buccaneers. 

With just seven games left in the NFL season, there’s no time to waste when breaking down these matchups from a betting perspective. Here are two ATS picks to consider for the Divisional Round. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best NFL Against the Spread Picks for Divisional Round 

  • Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills 
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-6) vs. Los Angeles Rams 

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills 

The Ravens have flipped from a 1.5-point underdog to a 1.5-point favorite in this matchup. In a year where road favorites have dominated, Baltimore has been one of the best, going 6-2 ATS.

Last year, fans and media criticized Baltimore for throwing too much in its AFC Championship loss to Kansas City. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken wouldn’t make the same mistake in the first round this year as the Ravens racked up 299 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 50 attempts in the first round against Pittsburgh. 

Buffalo ranked No. 12 in the NFL against the run this season but could that be from teams abandoning the run? Opposing running backs attempted just 367 total carries against Buffalo (18th in the NFL) and the Bills allowed 1,629 rushing yards to opposing running backs, the second most among playoff teams. 

In September, Derrick Henry gashed Buffalo for 199 yards, Lamar Jackson added 54 and the Ravens rolled at home, 35-10. Of course the venue switch plays a big part in this as the Bills now have the home field but for all the problems the Ravens’ pass defense had early in the season, they were still able to hold Josh Allen to just 16-of-29 for 180 yards and no touchdowns. 

Has Baltimore’s defense improved? The Ravens were No. 1 against the run during the regular season but 31st against the pass. After getting torched by Joe Burrow (428 yards, 4 touchdowns) in early November, the Ravens ended the regular season with seven games without allowing an opposing quarterback to throw for over 220 yards. 

Russell Wilson threw for 270 in the Wild Card round, but Baltimore was in firm control of that game after halftime. 

Philadelphia Eagles (-6) vs. Los Angeles Rams 

We’re going with two playoff picks that feature rematches from the regular season, albeit a different venue. 

In late-November, the Eagles went to California and decimated the LA Rams, 37-20. In that matchup, Saquon Barkley ran for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns while quarterback Jalen Hurts didn’t have to do too much (15-of-22, 179 yards, 1 touchdown, 39 rushing yards). 

Could we see a similar script this weekend? The Rams defense feasted Monday during another Sam Darnold sub-par performance. However, LA allowed the most rushing yards to opposing running backs of any playoff team and the Eagles’ defense has the tools with a young, sharp secondary to limit the Rams’ explosiveness. 

With temperatures looking to be in the low-30s on Sunday, do you really trust the west coast team traveling cross-country? In LA’s only game this season in sub-40 temperature, the Rams were outgained by the Jets, 321-242, and put up just 19 points in a late-December road win. 

Stafford that day threw for a season-low 110 yards and the formidable duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp combined for just 80 yards on 11 receptions. The Eagles are top-10 in both pass-rush and run-stop win rate, which should translate into Stafford being under duress in the cold Sunday afternoon. 

The Rams went 5-3 on the road during the regular season but played just one playoff team, a 26-20 overtime loss to Detroit in the season opener. The Rams were not impressive down the stretch away from home, winning close, low scoring games over the Jets, 49ers, Saints, Patriots and Seahawks. 

Lay the points with the red-hot Eagles, who haven’t lost a game started (and finished) by Jalen Hurts since Week 4 and have covered five of their last six as home favorites.

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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