Best NFL Teaser Picks for Week 11 (Target Kansas City, Houston)
While straight bets, player props, and parlays are always popular ways to bet on the NFL, another way to attack each week’s slate of NFL games is through teasers.
A teaser is another form of a parlay, which involves the buying of points on a side or total where a bettor has to parlay two-plus picks. A typical NFL teaser is six points on a side or total, though there are 6.5- and 7-point teasers out there, too.
For this teaser of the week, we’ll give out a two-team, six-point teaser to play.
We’re sticking with the Wong method for teasers. A Wong teaser is a six-point teaser that moves the spread through the key numbers 3,4 and 7. Typically, 7.5-8.5 point favorites are moved six points to under a field goal (-1.5 to -2.5) while 1.5-2.5-point underdogs are moved up through those key numbers to +7.5-8.5.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best NFL Teaser Picks for Week 11
Kansas City Chiefs (+8)/Houston Texans (-1.5)
By now, you’ve already heard about Patrick Mahomes’ impressive numbers as an underdog. Mahomes is 11-3 straight up and 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog, a position he and the Chiefs are in this weekend in Buffalo with the Bills as a 2-point favorite.
To no surprise, the unbeaten Chiefs look the part of a Super Bowl champion with a top-tier defense led by one of the league’s top coordinators and an offense under Mahomes that is finding its stride. Kansas City had a flat spot last week but somehow survived to defeat the Denver Broncos through a blocked kick on the final play of the game.
Despite it looking like the Chiefs were outplayed in that game, the stats tell a different story with Kansas City winning the first down (19-16) and yardage battle (300-260). Buffalo is rolling right now having won five consecutive games, but the Bills have struggled against some of the AFC’s top teams, losing to Baltimore and Houston in consecutive weeks.
At the end of the day, we’re all expecting another close battle between these two AFC rivals. Both squads are very familiar with how the other operates and no one would be surprised if this game comes to a game-changing play in the final minutes. That makes the underdog the perfect teaser candidate in Week 11.
It’s worth noting that Wong teasers typically don’t include road favorites. We’re throwing that out when it comes to the Dallas Cowboys. Last week, Philadelphia (teased to -1.5) was part of the best of the rest teaser legs for the week. We’ll go full-steam ahead this week with Houston against a Dallas squad that is winless (0-4) at Jerry World this season with three losses by at least 25 points.
Houston is hungry after somehow blowing a big lead against Detroit and we’ll trust the C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ hungry defense (top-5 in pass-rush and run-stop win rate) to handle the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys.
Other Week 11 Teaser Legs
Here are two other teaser legs to consider in Week 11.
Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Is this Cincinnati’s last stand? The Bengals’ playoff hopes will be significantly altered depending on the outcome of Sunday Night Football this week. Cincinnati has been the best team in the NFL when it comes to falling short in close games. The Bengals have lost five of their six games by six points or less, including an 0-3 mark against the Ravens and Chiefs by a combined five points. That’ll work just fine on the teaser on Sunday night.
Atlanta Falcons (+8.5) at Denver Broncos
Kirk Cousins and the Falcons head to Mile High in search of a bounce-back victory after a brutal divisional loss last week at New Orleans by a field goal. The Falcons still outplayed the Saints in that matchup with Kirk Cousins throwing for over 300 yards and Bijan Robinson hitting triple digits on the ground. The Falcons have played in eight games this season decided by one score and they’re a worthy teaser candidate against a defensive-led Denver team.
Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.