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Bills vs. Chiefs NFL Best Bets for AFC Championship Game (Target James Cook, Kareem Hunt)

Here are three best bets for Sunday's AFC Championship Game.

By Shelby Dermer

Nov 17, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt (29) runs with the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
Nov 17, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt (29) runs with the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images / Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
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The rematch everyone was waiting for is coming up Sunday when the Buffalo Bills visit Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. 

The Bills were the only team to beat Kansas City’s starters during the regular season, pulling out a 30-21 win at home in November to spoil the Chiefs’ perfect season. Will history repeat itself or will Kansas City’s playoff dominance continue? 

The Chiefs are currently 1.5-point favorites and the total is set at 48.5 points. Here are three bets to consider for the matchup. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bills vs. Chiefs NFL Best Bets for AFC Championship Game

  • James Cook OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards 
  • Kareem Hunt OVER 46.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards 
  • Travis Kelce UNDER 69.5 Receiving Yards 

James Cook OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

The matchup is highlighted by the Mahomes vs. Allen storyline, and rightfully so as two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL are squaring off for a trip to the Super Bowl.

However, the Bills have leaned on their ground game over the first two rounds of the playoffs. Since the beginning of November, Cook had just one game with over 16 carries (19 against Indianapolis) but has been vital in two playoff games with 40 total attempts for 187 yards and a touchdown. 

The Chiefs were No. 8 in the NFL in rushing defense during the regular season, but Houston was able to come into Arrowhead Stadium last week with Joe Mixon churning out nearly five yards per carry. The Bills continue to rely on Cook and the rushing attack to chew up yards (and clock) on Sunday. 

Kareem Hunt OVER 46.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

Isiah Pacheco was the clear-cut starter heading into the season before a leg injury in Week 2. In five games since returning to the Kansas City’s backfield, Pacheco’s snap count has decreased (less than 50% in all five) and he’s failed to run for over 32 yards in four consecutive games.

Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt’s usage continues to climb as a veteran who is familiar with Andy Reid’s system and has the trust of Patrick Mahomes. Hunt was in on 60% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps in the divisional round against Houston and received the most carries (8) compared to Pacheco (5). 

Hunt had 14 carries for 60 yards in the first meeting with Buffalo. He’ll face a Bills’ defense that allowed the second-most receptions to running backs during the regular season. With a snap count trending upward plus Pacheco’s struggles, we’ll ride with Hunt to get the majority of the workload Sunday. 

Travis Kelce UNDER 69.5 Receiving Yards (-109)

Kelce has gone over 70 receiving yards in 14 consecutive playoff games. It ends on Sunday when the Bills come to town. Last week, the Chiefs were outgained offensively, 336-212.

Kansas City’s offense was a two-man show between Mahomes and Kelce. The standout tight end racked up seven catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. 

Buffalo knows it can’t allow Kelce to get going. Slowing down the seven-time All-Pro is top priority for Buffalo’s defense and they have the tools to do it. The Bills allowed the 12th-fewest receiving yards to opposing tight ends during the regular season and completely shut Kelce out of the first meeting between these two teams (2 catches for 8 yards). 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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